Athletics is about to kick off at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Japan's medal chances are few, but there's a decent number of people with a realistic shot at top 8 or top 10, depending on what you care about. The ones most likely to hit one of those targets:
Women's Javelin Throw - Haruka Kitaguchi
Kitaguchi is the 2023 world champion and Diamond League final winner and the only woman in the field over 67 meters in the Paris qualifying window. She's been more consistent this season than in the lead-up to Budapest last year but also hasn't had a really big throw. Last year she went in to the World Championships with a 67.04 m in mid-July. This year she's only hit 65.21 m, also in mid-July, but both Colombia's Flor Denis Ruiz Hurtado and Austrian Victoria Hudson have thrown over 66 m this season. Kitaguchi's medal chances are good, but it'll take a peak performance for her to walk away with gold.
Men's 20 km Race Walk - Koki Ikeda, Ryo Hamanishi and Yuta Koga
All three Japanese men in Paris are in the top 8 in the field, the #1-ranked Ikeda being the only person under 1:17 with a 1:16:51 for the win in Kobe in February. But in hotter conditions last summer in Budapest Koga was 12th and Ikeda 15th. All three Budapest medalists are also in the top 8, gold medalist Alvaro Martin of Spain #4 with a 1:17:32, Sweden's silver medalist Perseus Karlstrom #5 at 1:17:39, and bronze medalist Caio Bonfim of Brazil #7 at 1:17:44, so it's not going to be an easy day for any of the Japanese men.
Marathon Race Walk Mixed Relay
Japan took silver in the marathon race walk mixed relay at this year's World Athletics Race Walking Team Championships. Yesterday both Kumiko Okada and Ayane Yanai announced they were pulling out of the individual women's 20 km to focus entirely on the mixed relay, so expect them and male teammates Masatora Kawano and Kazuki Takahashi to be in it for a medal. The medals look the same whether they're in an individual event or a team event.
Men's 4x100 m Relay
The Japanese men's 4x100 m relay was 4th at World Relays and has the 4th-best time by a national team this season, 38.07 for the win at the London Diamond League. All three teams ahead of them, the U.S.A., Italy and Canada, are under 37.90, but the roster Japan is likely to field is stronger than its World Relays lineup, and with the extra motivation of making up for a blown first exchange on home ground at the Tokyo Olympics they've got a non-zero chance of getting into the medals again. South Africa is right behind them in the rankings with a 38.08 season best.
Men's 4x400 m Relay
The Japanese men's 4x400 m relay has been coming up internationally, including a 4th-place finish in the final at the 2022 Oregon World Championships. Since then Julian Walsh has retired, and big guns Kentaro Sato and Fuga Sato have been shaky this season after becoming only the 2nd and 3rd Japanese men to break 45 seconds last summer in Budapest. If they're on, a spot in the final is realistic.
Men's 110 m Hurdles - Rachid Muratake and Shunsuke Izumiya
Former teammates at Juntendo University, national champion Muratake and national record holder Izumiya have the 6th and 8th-best times in the field, Muratake with a 13.04 and Izumiya at 13.06. That'll be a mile from the medals, but even making the final would be a pretty good achievement. Muratake has mostly been in better form this season, Izumiya skipping last month's National Championships and falling at the Monaco Diamond League but coming back with a 13.10 (+1.6) last weekend in Tokyo, his best time of 2024.
Women's Marathon - Honami Maeda
Maeda's 2:18:59 NR in Osaka in January has her at #9 in the Road to Paris rankings. But if you haven't seen how she did it, you should go watch. Her second half was probably the most aggressive running by a Japanese woman in the marathon since the golden days of Takahashi and Noguchi. And she set a 30 km NR in old-fashioned thin shoes on the extremely hilly Ome 30 km course. Can she do it in heat too? Don't know. She did at the 2020 Olympic marathon trials. But the Paris course looks set up for negative splits for anyone who's smart in the first half, and if Maeda has the same kind of confidence she had in Osaka she could go places.
Women's 5000 m - Nozomi Tanaka
A bit improbably, Tanaka has the 6th-fastest time in the field with her 14:29.18 NR last fall. But there's a big jump from there to 5th-ranked Ejgayehu Taye's 14:18.92. Tanaka was 3rd at the Monaco Diamond League with a 14:40.86 season best against a relatively weak field, but she did show some serious closing speed over the last lap. There's not a lot of chance the Olympic final will be slow, but if it is Tanaka could surprise a few people in the last 400 m.
Women's Long Jump - Sumire Hata
Hata set the 6.97 m NR last summer at the Asian Championships, but she didn't make the final a month later at the Budapest World Championships and has only jumped 6.72 m this season, putting her at 26th in the world in 2024 when limited to three per country. It'll take something major for her to get through the first round.
Men's Marathon - Naoki Koyama, Akira Akasaki and Suguru Osako
Nobody really expects Japanese men to set the world on fire in international championship marathons anymore, but this is a great team, even better than what they had in Tokyo three years ago. Koyama has been all hits, all the time, so far in the marathon, going from a 2:08:59 debut in Tokyo 2022 to a 2:08:12 PB in Tokyo a year later to a 2:07:40 PB and CR win four months later at the Gold Coast Marathon to a 2:08:57 win at the Olympic marathon trials three months later to a 2:06:33 PB for 3rd in Osaka less than four months after the trials.
Akasaki has only run as fast as 2:09:01, but in a field of dozens of guys in the 2:04~2:08 range JRN picked him to make the Paris team at the Olympic trials. Which he did. He's put serious work into speed over shorter distances and had a great run at the Ome 30 km in February. Having gotten to know him over the years, he's got something special inside that sets him apart.
Osako has been pretty stable top ten material, a bit less so since coming back from his six month to the day retirement after the Tokyo Olympics. His most recent marathon was a 2:11:44 for 13th in Boston where he was beaten by almost two minutes by amateur Yuma Mori, but Osako knows what he's doing and you can't bet against him.
For a complete listing of the Japanese Olympic team see our earlier preview.
photo © 2024 Oyuntuya Odonsuren, all rights reserved
text © 2024 Brett Larner, all rights reserved
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