https://www.podiumrunner.com/culture/42-runners-under-210-at-one-japanese-marathon/ A piece I wrote for PodiumRunner looking at how Japan produced the incredible depth seen at last weekend's Lake Biwa Mainichi Marathon , where a record 42 men went under 2:10. The part estimating a 2-minute shoe effect was originally longer but cut back for reasons of overall length. As Paul Gains details , Cornell University researchers estimated an impact of from 2 to 4 minutes depending on the individual. Applying that to the field as a whole, as I wrote a 2-minute effect would be equivalent to a 2:06:56 winning time in Lake Biwa, 4 men in 2:08, and 10 in 2:09, a pretty reasonable estimate based on past Japanese results. A 3-minute effect would give a 2:07:56 winning time, 4 men in 2:09, and a whole lot of people in the 2:10~12 range. Considering that Fukuoka 2003 had 3 Japanese men in 2:07, 2 in 2:08 and 1 in 2:09, this seems too conservative as it would suggest no progression in al...
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