Popular opinion was that 2024 national champion Koku Gakuin University was down on strength this year following the graduation of its two best runners Kiyoto Hirabayashi and Ayumu Yamamoto. But the season-opening Izumo Ekiden earlier this month set people straight. Ranked #4, KGU took the lead early in the 2nd half of the race there and led the rest of the way to win Izumo for the 2nd year in a row.
At Sunday's National University Ekiden they're coming into the race ranked #1, the only team in the field with 8 men having 5000 m bests under 14 minutes, 8 under 29 minutes for 10000 m, and 8 under 63 for the half marathon. 7 of those half marathoners are under 62, and an incredible 4 are under 61. With Nationals having 8 legs averaging 13.35 km, the last 2 close to the half marathon in length, chances are good of another KGU win.
On paper Chuo University is KGU's closest competitor, but at Izumo Chuo was ranked #1 and finished only 10th. Maybe they'll pull it together here, but they lack the momentum to have a realistic chance against a KGU lineup that's running smoothly.
More dangerous is #3-ranked Komazawa University. 5th at Izumo, Komazawa is the only team besides KGU with an 8-man half marathon average under 62 minutes, and neither that average nor its Izumo lineup factored in its biggest gun, star 4th-year Keita Sato. Sato has dealt with injuries off-and-on for the last year and a half, missing Izumo this season but really on when he's been on. JRN talked to Sato one-on-one yesterday and he said that while he's had a short build-up and won't be going for the 49:38 CR on the 17.6 km 7th leg, he's feeling fit, sharp, and free of any issues. Last year KGU beat Komazawa at Nationals by only 28 seconds with Komazawa missing Sato If he runs like he did at the Hakone Ekiden this year then it could be enough to stop that from happening again.
The next tier of 6 schools are all in it to make the 8-deep podium, and together they show what an interesting season it is. Some of the top programs like Hakone winner Aoyama Gakuin University, only 7th at Izumo and ranked 5th here, are down this year, while others like #7-ranked Nihon University who came up through the Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai qualifying race instead of running Izumo, are looking strong enough to be factors here. 3rd at Izumo and 4th at Nationals here, Soka University is the best bet out of the 6 to break into the top 3 here.
Most interesting, and maybe the biggest darkhorse in the race is #6-ranked Teikyo University. Perpetually stable enough to slip into the top 10 at Hakone almost every time, this season Teikyo is the best it's ever been, with star 4th-year Teruki Shimada going sub-61 at the Marugame Half and then running a 1:01:12 CR to win June's Launceston Half in Australia. Teikyo's chances of top 5 are good, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see it ultimately finish 4th.
The next tier is just as interesting. #11-ranked Chuo Gakuin University and #13-ranked Waseda University have momentum, CGU winning the Yosenkai and Waseda far outrunning what it looked like on paper to take 2nd at Izumo. A factor the last two seasons, Josai University was 6th at Izumo off a #9 ranking and is ranked only 12th here. Between them and Yosenkai schools Daito Bunka University, Tokai University and Juntendo University the bottom end of the podium is looking very hard to predict.
9th and 10th at the Yosenkai, Nittai University and Rikkyo University are ranked 14th and 15th at Nationals and will probably be looking not to get caught by the National University Select Team or any of the 11 other non-Kanto Region teams in the field.
TV Asahi is broadcasting the National University Ekiden live starting at 7:45 a.m. Sunday local time, with streaming on TVer. JRN will be on-site.
© 2025 Brett Larner, all rights reserved
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