102nd Hakone Ekiden Qualifier Half Marathon Preview

January's Hakone Ekiden has a big impact on the shape of the fall season for Japanese collegiate men. The top 10 teams at Hakone run this past Monday's Izumo Ekiden, where 6 runners per team run an average of 7.5 km. 11th-place and lower run Saturday's Yosenkai, the half marathon used to fill the 10 remaining slots in the Hakone field and the lineup of the select team made up of top-placing individuals from universities that don't qualify as a team. The 42 teams at the Yosenkai can run up to 12 people, with the times of their first 10 finishers adding up to a team score and the 10 fastest teams going on to the big show.

At Izumo a lot of the top teams were down on track times this season. At the Yosenkai it's really noticeable how much the level has come up. In 2023 only 2 teams, Daito Bunka University and Tokyo Kokusai University, had a 10-runner 10000 m average under 29 minutes. Last year there were 3, Chuo University, Tokai University and TKU again. This year there are 6. For the half marathon distance too, in 2023 only 4 teams had 7 or more people with PBs under 64 minutes. In 2024 there were 5. This year there are 8, with Chuo Gakuin University breaking new ground with 11 people on its entry roster under 64.

Last at Hakone this year, old-school Nihon University is the surprise favorite. In the past Nihon has been the beneficiary of an old boys' network kind of effort to keep it at Hakone, getting bonus points for winning May's Kanto Region Track and Field Championships. But since that rule went away it's been coming up without the help of its sprinters and field athletes. In 2023 it was ranked 12th at the Yosenkai. Last year it was ranked 4th. This year it leads the field with a great team that seems to have come out of nowhere. Its 10th-fastest runner has a 29:02.78 PB for 10000 m, it has a 10-man 10000 m average of 28:39.79, and it has 7 half marathoners under 63 minutes. That doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be a factor at Hakone itself, but somehow Nihon looks great for a Yosenkai win.

Juntendo University, CGU, Tokai, Yamanashi Gakuin University and DBU all have 10000 m averages under 29 minutes, and all of them except YGU have 7 or more sub-64 half marathoners. That should be enough for them all to be pretty safe picks to make the cut. YGU only has 5 people under 64, but it has a pretty good of making at least top 7. Surugadai University is the biggest surprise next to Nihon, ranked 16th in 2023, 12th last year, and 7th this year despite the departure of head coach Kazuyoshi Tokumoto. Surugadai has a 10-man 10000 m average of 29:01.23 and a solid 9 runners with half marathon bests under 64 minutes, so like YGU it's in a pretty good position for top 7.

Beyond that it starts to get interesting for the last 3 places. Less than 4 seconds per runner separate Nittai University, Meiji University, Kanagawa University and Hosei University on 10000 m average, #8-ranked Nittai at 29:04.22 and 11th-ranked Hosei at 29:07.82. Hosei has the advantage on depth and stability, with 7 sub-64 half marathoners, followed by #9-ranked Meiji with 6. #8-ranked Nittai and #10-ranked Kanagawa are vulnerable to Hosei and a few others outside the top 10, Nittai having only 4 sub-64 runners and Kanagawa 3.

After Hosei in the rankings is Tokyo Nogyo University at 12th, but it is heavily dependent on the health of 10000 m U20 NR holder Kazuma Maeda, a big question mark, and it only has 4 quality half marathoners. #13-ranked Senshu University has a better chance of breaking into the top 10, its 29:11.91 average for 10000 m almost equal to TNU's 29:10.39 but with 9 men sub-64 for the half marathon, 5 of them under 63 and 2 under 62. It wouldn't be a big surprise to see Senshu take down even Nittai. #14-ranked Nihon Yakka University and #15-ranked Rikkyo University have half a good team each, and it would take something special for either of them to get into the top 10.

NTV will be broadcasting the Yosenkai and its dramatic qualification ceremony live starting at 8:25 a.m. local time Saturday, with streaming on TVer. JRN will be on-site as usual.

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