7:30 - Men's Marathon
Yuya Yoshida (GMO) - 2:05:16 - 1st, Fukuoka Int'l 2024
Ryota Kondo (Mitsubishi Juko) - 2:05:39 - 2nd, Osaka 2025
Naoki Koyama (Honda) - 2:06:33 - 3rd, Osaka 2024
Prognosis: If we had to pick one Japanese athlete we'd most like to see win a medal it's Yoshida, someone who's risen from benchwarmer in college to Fukuoka CR holder. He's been almost invisible this year so it's hard to know where he's at, but if his second half is anything like it was in Fukuoka then he's a contender. Kondo is a wildcard, with a 2:05:39 debut and narrow miss on the win in Osaka this year, but in snow and cold far removed from what Tokyo will be like Monday. Koyama seemed almost no-miss up through his PB in Osaka last year but has struggled since then and controversially made the team here based on points in the domestic marathon series over multiple people who have run a lot better more recently.
9:00 / 10:45 - Men's Hammer Throw Qualification
Shota Fukuda (Sumitomo Denko) - 74.57 m - 1st, Nationals
Prognosis: National champ Fukuda is in good shape this season, but even that only ranks him 3rd from the bottom of the field. He's not likely to go on to the final.
9:05 - Women's Pole Vault Qualification
Misaki Morota (At Home) - 4.40 m - DNS, Nationals
Prognosis: Morota has been out of competition for the last few months and didn't compete at Nationals in July, so it was a surprise to see her added to the team on a host country ticket. No indication of what kind of shape she's in, but it's not likely to be near peak form.
10:30 - Women's 3000 m Steeplechase Heats
Miu Saito (Panasonic) - 9:38.16 - 2nd, Nationals
Prognosis: Saito has been having a great season but only made the team off a host country spot. With any luck she'll get pulled along to a PB in the heats, but even that probably won't get her to the final.
19:35 - Men's 400 m Hurdles Heats
Shunta Inoue (Fujitsu) - 48.46 - 3rd, Nationals
Ken Toyoda (Toyota) - 48.55 - 7th, Heat 1, Nationals
Daiki Ogawa (Toyo Univ.) - 48.61 - 1st, Nationals
Prognosis: One of Japan's better events. Moving on to the semi-finals would be a good achievement for any of the 3 men on the squad. Toyoda is the biggest question mark after injury issues earlier in the season that saw him eliminated in the heats at Nationals.
19:40 - Men's Long Jump Qualification
Hibiki Tsuha (Otsuka Seiyaku) - 8.15 m (+1.0) - 5th, Nationals
Riku Ito (Suzuki) - 8.11 m (+0.1) - 2nd, Nationals
Yuki Hashioka (Fujitsu) - 8.10 m (+1.7) - 4th, Nationals
Prognosis: Another good squad, but neither Tsuha nor Hashioka have been close to their best this season. All three are in the bottom half of the field and will need a good day to make the final.
20:23 - Men's 110 m Hurdles Heats
Rachid Muratake (JAL) - 12.92 (+0.6) - DNS, Nationals
Shunsuke Izumiya (Sumitomo Denko) - 13.19 (+0.3) - 1st, Nationals
Shusei Nomoto (Ehime T&F Assoc.) - 13.21 (+0.6) - 2nd, Nationals
Prognosis: Muratake is a medal contender. Izumiya and Nomoto might join him in the semis, but he's probably going to be the only one in the final.
(21:06 - Women's 100 m Hurdles Semi-Final)
Prognosis: Two of the three Japanese women in the heats, Hitomi Nakajima and Mako Fukube, have a reasonable chance of advancing past the heats to the semis.
(21:30 - Men's 1500 m Semi-Final)
Prognosis: Asian champ Iizawa has a 3:36 season best and will have a hard time making here past the first round.
(21:55 - Men's 3000 m Steeplechase Final)
Prognosis: Miura should be in it for a medal back on the track where he had his big international breakthrough in the heats at the Tokyo Olympics.
(22:20 - Women's 100 m Hurdles Final)
Prognosis: It'd be a surprise to see either Nakajima or Fukube go this far. A pleasant surprise, though.
text and photo © 2025 Brett Larner, all rights reserved
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