7:30 - Women's Marathon
Sayaka Sato (Sekisui Kagaku) - 2:20:59 - 2nd, Nagoya 2025
Yuka Ando (Shimamura) - 2:21:18 - 1st, Nagoya 2024
Kana Kobayashi (Otsuka Seiyaku) - 2:21:19 - 2nd, Osaka Women's 2025
Prognosis: Not much chance of getting close to the medals, but any of the Japanese women here could get into the top 8. The 24-year-old Kobayashi has the most headroom, still on an improvement curve in only her 3rd year running marathons.
9:35 - Men's 1500 m Heats
Kazuto Iizawa (Sumitomo Denko) - 3:36.81 - 1st, Nationals
Prognosis: Iizawa made Worlds by winning the Asian title, and with a season best that ranks him 8th from the bottom of the field it's pretty unlikely he'll advance past the heats.
11:05 - Women's 100 m Hurdles Heats
Hitomi Nakajima (Hasegawa) - 12.71 (+0.7) - 2nd, Nationals
Mako Fukube (NKK) - 12.73 (+1.4) - 3rd, Nationals
Yumi Tanaka (Fujitsu) - 12.80 (-0.1) - 1st, Nationals
Prognosis: Nakajima and Fukube have a decent chance of advancing to the semi-finals, but Tanaka will need to be close to her best to join them.
18:35 - Men's 400 m Heats
Yuki Joseph Nakajima (Fujitsu) - 44.84 - 5th, Nationals
Fuga Sato (Mizuno) - 45.16 - 1st, Nationals
Prognosis: Nakajima seems to be back at his best, but Sato's fitness is a bit of a question after the backdoor reversal of his Nationals DQ to get him into the qualifying bracket. Nakajima may move on, but the 4x400 m will probably be their main event.
18:40 - Men's High Jump Qualification
Yuto Seko (FAAS) - 2.33 m - 5th, Nationals
Ryoichi Akamatsu (Seibu Prince) - 2.31 m - 2nd, Nationals
Tomohiro Shinno (Kyudenko) - 2.29 m - 1st, Nationals
Prognosis: Outside the road events and maybe the men's 100 m this was probably the hardest squad to make on the Japanese team. Seko miraculously hit the standard in mid-August, only the 3rd Japanese man to ever clear 2.33 m and one of only 5 in the Worlds field to hit the qualifying standard, also 2.33. Akamatsu and Shinno are 8th and 11th in the current world rankings, and while Akamatsu has not had a good season since Nationals he and Shinno are still top 8 threats. The big question is whether Seko, whose next-best jump since 2023 was only 2.25 m, can duplicate his one-off qualifying jump.
(19:12 - Women's Discus Throw Final)
Prognosis: It's not likely NR holder Nanaka Kori will make the final.
19:25 - Women's 400 m Heats
Nanako Matsumoto (Toho Ginko) - 52.14 - 4th, Nationals
Prognosis: Matsumoto was one of the athletes added to the team via Japan's host country rights, and at 4th from the bottom of the field on time this is probably as far as she goes. She'll also be running in the mixed 4x400 m heats the day before.
(20:40 - Women's Long Jump Final)
Prognosis: As with the discus, there's not much chance NR holder Sumire Hata will get to the final.
(20:45 - Men's 100 m Semi-Final)
Prognosis: Abdul Hakim Sani Brown has made three World Championships finals, but after not making it out of the heats at Nationals it all comes down to him having somehow turned around a season where he hasn't broken 10.30. Yoshihide Kiryu and Yuhi Mori both have realistic chances of making the semis, in the 21-year-old Mori's case in his first major international competition.
(21:07 - Women's 1500 m Semi-Final)
Prognosis: NR holder Nozomi Tanaka might make the semi-finals, but Tomoka Kimura probably won't be there with her.
21:30 - Men's 10000 m Final
Jun Kasai (Asahi Kasei) - 27:17.46 - 2nd, Nationals
Mebuki Suzuki (Toyota) - 27:26.67 - 1st, Nationals
Prognosis: 2024 national champ Kasai had some injury issues late spring but seems to be in good shape now. Suzuki beat him to win this year's national title, but as he is just back from training in cold rain at altitude in St. Moritz even his team staff has publicly questioned his readiness to deal with the prolonged heat and humidity in Tokyo. It would take a slow race for either of them to factor into the top 8, but they both have good kicks and could surprise.
(22:20 - Men's 100 m Final)
Prognosis: Can Sani Brown make a World Championships final for the 4th time? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Kiryu has good momentum this season but the final is a stretch.


Comments
I wonder if Sayaka Sato is regretting not being a bit "braver" in the first half? She passed a lot of women over the second half.