The JAAF has announced a team of 30 women and 39 men not including relay pools for the Tokyo World Athletics Championships with less than 2 weeks to go til competition kicks off. The only real chances for medals on the women's team are in the javelin throw and women's 20 km race walk. Defending world and Olympic champ Haruka Kitaguchi is ranked #1 in the javelin, but with uncharacteristically weak performances in her last two Diamond League appearances there are a lot of questions about whether she's going to be ready. Nanako Fujii is ranked 4th in the 20 km race walk and could break into the medals.
Potential top 10 finishers on the women's team include NR holder Nozomi Tanaka in the 5000 m, Ririka Hironaka in the 10000 m, Momone Ueda in the javelin throw, and the entire marathon squad of Sayaka Sato, Yuka Ando and Kana Kobayashi, assuming the marathons actually go ahead given the currently scorching conditions in Tokyo that show no sign of ending.
The relays aside, Japan's best chances for men's medals are in the race walks, where Toshikazu Yamanishi and Satoshi Maruo are ranked 1-2 in the 20 km and Masatora Kawano 2nd in the 35 km, with Kento Yoshikawa ranked 7th in the 20 km and Maruo and Hayato Katsuki ranked 5th and 6th in the 35 km. Walks aside, there are realistic chances in both the 110 mH and 3000 mSC, where NR holders Rachid Muratake and Ryuji Miura are each ranked 3rd.
Potential top 10 placers include the entire men's high jump squad of Yuto Seko, Ryoichi Akamatsu and Tomohiro Shinno, Yuta Sakiyama in the men's javelin throw, and at least Fukuoka CR-breaker Yuya Yoshida in the marathon.
Top-ranked Women
1st - Haruka Kitaguchi, women's javelin throw
4th - Nanako Fujii, women's 20 km race walk
12th - Nozomi Tanaka, women's 5000 m
12th - Ririka Hironaka, women's 10000 m
13th - Sayaka Sato, women's marathon
14th - Yuka Ando, women's marathon
15th - Momone Ueda, women's javelin throw
15th - Kana Kobayashi, women's marathon
17th - Kumiko Okada, women's 20 km race walk
19th - Mikuni Yada, women's 10000 m
Top-Ranked Men
1st - Toshikazu Yamanishi - men's 20 km race walk
2nd - Satoshi Maruo - men's 20 km race walk
2nd - Masatora Kawano - men's 35 km race walk
3rd - Rachid Muratake - men's 110 mH
3rd - Ryuji Miura - men's 3000 mSC
5th - Satoshi Maruo - men's 35 km race walk
6th - Hayato Katsuki - men's 35 km race walk
7th - Kento Yoshikawa - men's 20 km race walk
9th - Yuto Seko - men's high jump
9th - Yuta Sakiyama - men's javelin throw
Complete team rosters are below. Athletes with an asterisk were named to the team via a host country slot without otherwise meeting the qualification criteria.
Women
200 m
*Abigail Fuuka Ido (Toho Ginko) - 22.79 (+1.0) - 1st, Nationals
400 m
*Nanako Matsumoto (Toho Ginko) - 52.14 - 4th, Nationals
800 m
Rin Kubo (Higashi Osaka Keiai H.S.) - 1:59.52 - 1st, Nationals
1500 m
Nozomi Tanaka (New Balance) - 3:59.69 - 1st, Nationals
Tomoka Kimura (Sekisui Kagaku) - 4:09.88 - 2nd, Nationals
5000 m
Nozomi Tanaka (New Balance) - 14:31.88 - 1st, Nationals
Yuma Yamamoto (Sekisui Kagaku) - 15:12.97 - 7th, Nationals
Ririka Hironaka (Japan Post) - 15:05.69 - 2nd, Nationals
10000 m
Ririka Hironaka (Japan Post) - 30:56.32 - 1st, Nationals
Mikuni Yada (Edion) - 31:12.21 - 2nd, Nationals
100 mH
Hitomi Nakajima (Hasegawa) - 12.71 (+0.7) - 2nd, Nationals
Mako Fukube (NKK) - 12.73 (+1.4) - 3rd, Nationals
Yumi Tanaka (Fujitsu) - 12.81 (+0.7) - 1st, Nationals
3000 mSC
*Miu Saito (Panasonic) - 9:38.16 - 2nd, Nationals
High Jump
Nagisa Takahashi (Senko) - 1.92 m - 2nd, Nationals
Pole Vault
*Misaki Morota (At Home) - 4.40 m - DNS, Nationals
Long Jump
*Sumire Hata (Sumitomo Denko) - 6.47 m (-0.7) - 3rd, Nationals
Triple Jump
Maoko Takashima (Kyudenko) - 13.92 m (+0.2) - 1st, Nationals
Mariko Morimoto (Orico) - 13.83 m (+0.8) - 3rd, Nationals
Discus Throw
*Nanaka Kori (Niigata Albirex) - 59.41 m - 1st, Nationals
Javelin Throw
Haruka Kitaguchi (JAL) - 66.13 m - 1st, 2024 Nationals
Momone Ueda (Zenrin) - 62.20 m - 1st, Nationals
Sae Takemoto (Orico) - 60.51 m - 3rd, Nationals
Marathon
Sayaka Sato (Sekisui Kagaku) - 2:20:59 - 2nd, Nagoya 2025
Yuka Ando (Shimamura) - 2:21:18 - 1st, Nagoya 2024
Kana Kobayashi (Otsuka Seiyaku) - 2:21:19 - 2nd, Osaka Women's 2025
20 km Race Walk
Nanako Fujii (Edion) - 1:26:33 - 1st, Nationals
Kumiko Okada (Fujitsu) - 1:28:17 - 2nd, Nationals
Ayane Yanai (Ritsumeikan Univ.) - 1:29:44 - 4th, Nationals
35 km Race Walk
Yukiko Umeno (Juntendo Univ.) - 2:46:53 - 1st, Nationals
Masumi Fuchise (Kenso) - 2:52:38 - 3rd, Nationals
Maika Yagi (Chiba Kogyo Ginko) - 2:56:18 - 4th, Nationals
4x400 m Relay Additional Entries
Arie Flores (Nittai Univ.) - 51.71 - 3rd, Nationals
Men
100 m
Abdul Hakim Sani Brown (Toray) - 9.96 (+0.5) - 4th, Heat 7, Nationals
Yoshihide Kiryu (Nihon Seimei) - 9.99 (+1.5) - 1st, Nationals
Yuhi Mori (Daito Bunka Univ.) - 10.00 (+1.3) - 7th, Nationals
200 m
Towa Uzawa (JAL) - 20.11 (+0.9) - 1st, Nationals
Soshi Mizukubo (Miyazaki T&F Assoc.) - 20.14 (+0.1) - 7th, SF2, Nationals
Shota Iizuka (Mizuno) - 20.45 (+1.2) - 3rd, Nationals
400 m
Yuki Joseph Nakajima (Fujitsu) - 44.84 - 5th, Nationals
Fuga Sato (Mizuno) - 45.16 - 1st, Nationals
800 m
*Ko Ochiai (Komazawa Univ.) - 1:45.16 - 1st, Nationals
1500 m
Kazuto Iizawa (Sumitomo Denko) - 3:36.81 - 1st, Nationals
5000 m
*Nagiya Mori (Honda) - 13:15.07 - 2nd, Nationals
10000 m
Jun Kasai (Asahi Kasei) - 27:17.46 - 2nd, Nationals
Mebuki Suzuki (Toyota) - 27:26.67 - 1st, Nationals
110 mH
Rachid Muratake (JAL) - 12.92 (+0.6) - DNS, Nationals
Shunsuke Izumiya (Sumitomo Denko) - 13.19 (+0.3) - 1st, Nationals
Shusei Nomoto (Ehime T&F Assoc.) - 13.21 (+0.6) - 2nd, Nationals
400 mH
Shunta Inoue (Fujitsu) - 48.46 - 3rd, Nationals
Ken Toyoda (Toyota) - 48.55 - 7th, Heat 1, Nationals
Daiki Ogawa (Toyo Univ.) - 48.61 - 1st, Nationals
3000 mSC
Ryuji Miura (Subaru) - 8:03.43 - DNS, Nationals
High Jump
Yuto Seko (FAAS) - 2.33 m - 5th, Nationals
Ryoichi Akamatsu (Seibu Prince) - 2.31 m - 2nd, Nationals
Tomohiro Shinno (Kyudenko) - 2.29 m - 1st, Nationals
Long Jump
Hibiki Tsuha (Otsuka Seiyaku) - 8.15 m (+1.0) - 5th, Nationals
Riku Ito (Suzuki) - 8.11 m (+0.1) - 2nd, Nationals
Yuki Hashioka (Fujitsu) - 8.10 m (+1.7) - 4th, Nationals
Discus Throw
*Masateru Yugami (Toyota) - 64.48 m - 3rd, Nationals
Hammer Throw
Shota Fukuda (Sumitomo Denko) - 74.57 m - 1st, Nationals
Javelin Throw
Yuta Sakiyama (Ehime T&F Assoc.) - 87.16 m - 1st, Nationals
Roderick Genki Dean (Mizuno) - 84.66 m - 2nd, Nationals
Gen Naganuma (Suzuki) - 80.58 m - 3rd, Nationals
Marathon
Yuya Yoshida (GMO) - 2:05:16 - 1st, Fukuoka Int'l 2024
Ryota Kondo (Mitsubishi Juko) - 2:05:39 - 2nd, Osaka 2025
Naoki Koyama (Honda) - 2:06:33 - 3rd, Osaka 2024
20 km Race Walk
Toshikazu Yamanishi (Aichi Seiko) - 1:16:10 - 1st, Nationals
Satoshi Maruo (Aichi Seiko) - 1:17:24 - 2nd, Nationals
Kento Yoshikawa (Sunbelx) - 1:17:38 - 3rd, Nationals
35 km Race Walk
Masatora Kawano (Asahi Kasei) - 2:21:47 - 1st, Nationals 2024
Satoshi Maruo (Aichi Seiko) - 2:24:24 - 2nd, Nationals
Hayato Katsuki (SDF Academy) - 2:24:38 - 1st, Nationals
4x100 m Relay Additional Entries
Hiroki Yanagita (Toyo Univ.) - 10.00 (+0.3) - DQ, Nationals
Sorato Shimizu (Seiryo H.S.) - 10.00 (+1.7) - 4th, SF3, Nationals
Yuki Koike (Sumitomo Denko) - 10.08 (+0.3) - 5th, Nationals
Naoki Inoue (Waseda Univ.) - 10.12 (+0.4) - 4th, Nationals
Naoki Okami (Aomori Pref. Gov't) 10.17 (+0.9) - 2nd, Nationals
4x400 m Relay Additional Entries
Kenki Imaizumi (Uchida Yoko AC) - 45.29 - 2nd, Nationals
Sho Tanabe (Chuo Univ.) - 45.39 - 3rd, Nationals
Takuho Yoshizu (Miki House) - 45.40 - 4th, Nationals
Kentaro Sato (Fujitsu) - 45.40 - 4th, H2, Nationals
Shinya Hayashi (Tsukuba Univ.) - 45.65 - 6th, Nationals

Comments
I find the Izumiya situation pretty weird, he had promising results in the long jump (8.21 indoor), slowed down in the 110hs and ended up getting injured. He took a bet he perhaps shouldn't have taken in a world championship year. If he focused solely on one or the other a final could have been realistic.
Kitaguchi slowed down the last couple of months...10 days to find her groove again.
Muratake has been on a roll this season, consistent, fast...just his Diamond League final was abysmal, perhaps he decided not to take risks after a bad first hurdle but it wasn't a good showing at a top event. Let's see if he bounces back when it matters.
Yamanishi should be the safest medal, especially with Massimo Stano being out. Hopefully the japanese race walking team can add some medals to the total.
The men 4x100 has very tough decisions to make and those decisions will likely cost them a medal or not.
Good thing about the whole Sani Brown situation is that he will run the 100 first so if he doesn't show he's back to his standards they'll have an easier decision to make rather than not knowing what he has in his legs.
I'll always be very pessimistic about Naoki Koyama on the marathon team, I'll be glad to see him proving me wrong but I feel there were several other options more exciting and with more upside. We'll see.
Had she been able to get into the Rankings Quota spots, young Kana Mizumoto might have been a good alternative. However, Yuma is still 2-1 against her in races this season.
Tomoka Kimura, I feel, has been one of Japan's biggest female distance talents over recent years. However, she's wildly inconsistent. Her last race at the Twilight Games wasn't too bad though - not a super-quick time but she didn't have any opposition to push her over the last 800m. Hopefully, in Tokyo, she has one of her better days in the 1500 heats and does herself justice.
However, the reality is that whoever Japan sent as the #2 in that event, they would struggle to reach the semi-finals.
Overall, I'm excited to watch this team. Good luck to them all!