Breaking down the senior events on Thursday's schedule with top people making the starting lists:
Finals
Men's Hammer Throw Final - 15:00
Defending national champ Shota Fukuda is the only one close to the Paris quota of 32, currently at 39th. A win close to his 73.91 m season best would put him just 2 or 3 points out of the quota. Ryota Kashimura and Tatsuto Nakagawa have both thrown over 72 m recently and could take the national title away if Fukuda is off his best.
Shota Fukuda (Sumitomo Denko) - 73.91 m SB / PB
Ryota Kashimura (Yamada Holdings) - 72.92 m SB / PB
Tatsuto Nakagawa (Niigata Albirex RC) - 72.05 SB / PB
Kohei Oda (Fukumoto Kogyo) - 70.49 m SB / PB
Yudai Kimura (Zenrin) - 70.17 m SB / 71.21 m PB
Takahiro Kobata (Support Zen) - 69.66 m SB / 71.34 m PB
Men's Triple Jump Final - 17:00
Hikaru Ikehata is in almost the same situation as Fukuda, the defending national champ and outside the Paris quota. But in Ikehata's case it would be almost impossible for him to make up the ground from 43rd to 32nd, the only slight possibility being bridging the gap from his 16.75 m PB to the 17.22 m Olympic standard.
Hikaru Ikehata (Surugadai Univ. AC) - 16.73 m SB / 16.75 m PB
Yuto Adachi (Fukuoka Univ.) - 16.46 m SB / PB
Yuki Yamashita (Fujibo) - 16.38 m SB / 16.57 m PB
Manato Miyao (Toyo Univ.) - 16.38 m SB / PB
Hajime Araki (Juntendo Univ.) - 16.28 m SB / PB
Hiromi Ogawa (Chiba T&F Assoc.) - 16.25 m SB / PB
Women's Hammer Throw Final - 17:20
The same story again in the women's hammer throw, where Joy McArthur, a nationality transfer from the U.S.A. to Japan two years ago, sits outside the quota at 46th after winning last year's national title. McArthur threw a 70.51 m NR in March, but it would take another NR and the win for her to make it up to 32nd.
Joy McArthur (unattached) - 70.51 m SB / PB
Raika Murakami (Kyushu Kyoritsu Univ.) - 65.33 m SB / PB
Miharu Kodate (Somay-Q) - 64.52 m SB / PB
Sara Fujimoto (Kondotech) - 62.94 m SB / PB
Remi Katsuya (Kyushu Kyoritsu Univ.) - 61.71 m SB / 61.94 m PB
Teresa Epasaka (Niigata Iryo Fukushi Univ.) - 61.55 m SB / PB
Women's High Jump Final - 17:30
Last year's high jump national champion Nagisa Takahashi is the closest to making the quota in the four events up to this point, just three spots away in 35th. But there's a big jump from 1171 for 33rd to 1181 for 32nd, and even a win tying her 1.88 m SB and PB would only take her to 1179. At that point her best hope would be for a roll down spot if an athlete above her scratches. Sheriai Tsuda has jumped 1.85 m in both 2022 and 2023, but with a season best of only 1.80 m she'd need to be back to her best form to have a shot at beating Takahashi.
Nagisa Takahashi (Senko) - 1.88 m SB / PB
Shieriai Tsuda (Tsukiji Gindago) - 1.85 m SB / PB
Miyuki Tetsumaru (Kagoshima Ginko) - 1.82 m SB / PB
Moe Takeuchi (Kanseki) - 1.80 m SB / PB
Mairu Wada (Osaka Taiiku Univ.) - 1.78 m SB / PB
Reina Takeyama (Edion) - 1.78 m SB / 1.80 m PB
Women's 3000 mSC Final - 18:10
There won't be any Japanese women in the steeplechase in Paris, the standard being over 23 seconds faster than the current fastest one Reimi Yoshimura, and top-ranked Japanese woman Manami Nishiyama being at only 72nd. Along with the two of them Miu Saito and Chikako Mori are under 9:50 this season, so it could be a close race up front especially if Yoshimura isn't in peak shape.
Reimi Yoshimura (Cramer Japan TC) - 9:46.65 SB / 9:39.86 PB
Miu Saito (Nittai Univ.) - 9:47.76 SB / PB
Chikako Mori (Sekisui Kagaku) - 9:48.70 SB / 9:45.27 PB
Manami Nishiyama (Mitsui Sumitomo Kaijo) - 9:49.77 SB / 9:39.28 PB
Yuzu Nishide (Daihatsu) - 9:52.28 SB / 9:38.95 PB
Ayaka Koike (F-Assist) - 10:01.53 SB / PB
Ayana Yamashita (Osaka Gakuin Univ.) - 10:03.57 SB / PB
Soyoka Segawa (Sysmex) - 10:07.69 SB / 9:58.81 PB
Mayu Kawase (Daito Bunka Univ.) - 10:10.61 SB / PB
Karin Akahori (Tokyo Metro) - 10:14.26 SB / 10:13.54 PB
Men's 3000 m SC Final- 19:35
The men's 3000 mSC final is interesting. NR holder Ryuji Miura has the 8:15.00 Olympic standard and is giving Nationals a miss. Nobody else in the field is within 5 seconds of the standard and are dependent on points, so Miura's absence boosts the chances that two others will make it, an unintended outcome of the World Athletics world rankings system. Ryoma Aoki ran the Tokyo Olympics steeple and is currently in pretty good position at 26th in the 36-deep Paris quota, but he hasn't been running great since setting NR for the mile and indoor 1500 m in February. Seiya Sunada is the third Japanese man in the Paris rankings at 46th, but something under 8:30 and a top two finish could put him as high as 31st. Hibiki Obara is flying under the radar, only the sixth Japanese man in the rankings and far down the list globally. But he's run about 10 seconds faster this season than either Aoki or Sunada and only needs one more good one to get up to the bottom of the quota. #4 JPN in the world rankings, Yutaro Niinae is in almost the same situation as Sunada.
Hibiki Obara (GMO) - 8:25.07 SB / PB
Yasunari Kusu (Ami AC) - 8:27.37 SB / 8:25.70 PB
Atsushi Shobu (Kao) - 8:28.16 SB / PB
Yutaro Niinae (Aisan Kogyo) - 8:28.54 SB / PB
Soma Nagahara (Juntendo Univ.) - 8:32.12 SB / PB
Ryoma Aoki (Honda) - 8:33.47 SB / 8:20.09 PB
Yuki Murao (Juntendo Univ.) - 8:33.76 SB / PB
Shintaro Nakazono (SID Group) - 8:34.76 SB / PB
Seiya Shigeno (Press Kogyo) - 8:35.88 SB / 8:31.88 PB
Seiya Sunada (Press Kogyo) - 8:36.86 SB / 8:26.36 PB
Heats and Semifinals
Men's 200 m Prelims / Heats - 14:20 / 19:10
Three of the five fastest men in the 200 m heats, To Uzawa, Shota Iizuka and Koki Ueyama, are in the Paris quota and should make the semis without problem along with 3rd and 4th-fastest Soshi Misakubo and Yudai Nishi.
To Uzawa (Tsukuba Univ.) - 20.23 SB / PB
Shota Iizuka (Mizuno) - 20.27 SB / 20.11 PB
Soshi Misakubo (Miyazaki Sports Assoc.) - 20.43 SB / PB
Yudai Nishi (Mint Tokyo) - 20.43 SB / PB
Koki Ueyama (Sumitomo Denko) - 20.43 SB / 20.26 PB
Naoki Uemoto (Ace Japan) - 20.48 SB / PB
Shoto Uno (Orico) - 20.49 SB / PB
Kento Matsui (Kansai Univ.) - 20.60 SB / PB
Kotaro Yamaji (Cynet) - 20.62 SB / PB
Aoto Suzuki (Sumitomo Denko) - 20.67 SB / PB
Women's 100 m Heats / Semifinals - 15:00 / 18:30
Japan doesn't have any real contenders to make the Olympics in the women's 100 m, but there's a good showdown in the works between the mid-career Mei Kodama and last year's national champion Arisa Kimishima. Kimishima not making the final would be a surprise, but Kodama is a slight question mark so far in 2024 after running well in October with an 11.37.
Mei Kodama (Mizuno) - 11.37 SB / 11.24 PB
Arisa Kimishima (DKSiken) - 11.37 SB / 11.36 PB
Manaka Miura (Ehime T&F Assoc.) - 11.45 SB / PB
Aiha Yamagata (Fukuoka Univ.) - 11.46 SB / PB
Midori Mikase (Sumitomo Denko) - 11.51 SB / 11.46 PB
Wakana Okane (Konan Univ.) - 11.55 SB / PB
Yu Ishikawa (Aoyama Gakuin Univ.) - 11.55 SB / 11.48 PB
Yume Okuno (Konan Univ.) - 11.58 SB / PB
Yuna Miura (Cerespo) - 11.59 SB / 11.55 PB
Hinami Yamanaka (Shiga T&F Assoc.) - 11.62 SB / 11.61 PB
Women's 400 m Heats - 16:45
No real Olympic contenders in the women's 400 m either, where 2023 national champion Haruna Kuboyama faces top-ranked Japanese woman Nanako Matsumoto and Yuna Iwata, the only others under 53.50.
Haruna Kuboyama (Imamura Byoin) - 53.07 SB / PB
Yuna Iwata (Suzuki) - 53.38 SB / 53.37 PB
Nanako Matsumoto (Toho Ginko) - 53.42 SB / 52.56 PB
Shizuho Moriyama (Ichigo) - 53.82 SB / 53.62 PB
Marin Adachi (Sonoda Gakuen Joshi Univ.) - 53.83 SB / 53.65 PB
Abigail Fuka Ido (Toho Ginko) - 53.87 SB / PB
Yujiki Kojima (Ritsumeikan Univ.) - 53.99 SB / PB
Mayu Inaoka (Kagotani) - 54.08 SB / 54.07 PB
Miyu Akasaka (Tsukuba Univ.) - 54.28 SB / PB
Yuzuki Nakao (Sonoda Gakuen Joshi Univ.) - 54.33 SB / PB
Men's 400 mH Heats - 17:15
One of Japan's best events and one of the few where it could send a complete squad of three who all have the Olympic standard. That would be Ken Toyoda, Kaito Tsutsue and Kazuki Kurokawa, but the next-fastest Yusaku Kodama is in the Paris quota on points and #5 man Haruto Deguchi is right on the edge. Either could knock one or two of the qualified men off if they all make it to the final.
Ken Toyoda (Keio Univ.) - 48.36 SB / PB
Kaito Tsutsue (ST-Wako) - 48.58 SB / PB
Kazuki Kurokawa (Sumitomo Denko) - 48.58 SB / PB
Yusaku Kodama (Nojima T&F Club) - 48.77 SB / PB
Haruto Deguchi (Zenrin) - 48.83 SB / PB
Shunta Inoue (Hosei Univ.) - 48.91 SB / PB
Daiki Ogawa (Toyo Univ.) - 48.91 SB / PB
Masaki Kanemoto (Waseda Univ.) - 49.04 SB / PB
Takayuki Kishimoto (Fujitsu) - 49.28 SB / 48.41 PB
Masaya Oda (Toyota Jidoshokki) - 49.29 SB / PB
Men's 1500 m Heats - 17:40
No contenders for Paris in the men's 1500 m, but Kazuto Iizawa has been making it interesting this season with two fractional misses on the 3:35.42 NR. He's a cut above the recent form of everyone else in the race, top-ranked man Ryoji Tatezawa coming in at 3:37.13 and NR holder Kazuki Kawamura only at 3:38.45. The next five are all sub-3:40 this season including OC Kenyan Alex Kipchirchir and two others have done it before, so they should make up most of the 12 finalists.
Kazuto Iizawa (Sumitomo Denko) - 3:35.62 SB / PB
Ryoji Tatezawa (DeNA) - 3:37.13 SB / PB
Kazuki Kawamura (Toenec) - 3:38.45 SB / 3:35.42 PB
Masato Saiki (Fujisan no Meisui) - 3:38.53 SB / PB
Yusuke Takahashi (Asu Labo) - 3:38.69 SB / PB
Keisuke Morita (Subaru) - 3:38.75 SB / 3:37.36 PB
Nanami Arai (Honda) - 3:39.37 SB / 3:36.63 PB
Alex Kipchirchir (Comodi Iida) - 3:39.64 SB / PB (OC)
Yudai Noguchi (Toenec) - 3:40.10 SB / 3:39.01 PB
Rikuto Iijima (Ami AC) - 3:41.34 SB / 3:38.35 PB
Tomohiro Chimori (Otsuka Seiyaku) - 3:41.42 SB / PB
Women's 1500 m Heats - 18:45
The women's 1500 m heats seem set up for NR holder Nozomi Tanaka to do the minimum necessary in Heat 2 to make the final, with both OC Kenyans Mirriam Cherop and Hellen Ekarare put in the larger Heat 1 so they won't push Tanaka's pace until the final. It doesn't really matter than much since she's a lock for the win and the Olympics, currently the top-ranked woman without the standard worldwide at 31st in the quota of 45. 2023 World XC relay gold medalist Cherop is the only one who could conceivably give Tanaka a run for it in the final, but it's not very likely. Yume Goto is next-fastest among the Japanese woman and is at 54th in the Paris rankings, but even equalling her 4:09.93 SB and finishing 2nd would leave her just short of 45th. High-potential high schooler Sherry Drury is also in the heat with Cherop, Ekarare and Goto, upping the interest level exponentially.
Nozomi Tanaka (New Balance) - 4:02.98 SB / 3:59.19 PB
Mirriam Cherop (Shin Nihon Jusetsu) - 4:07.14 SB / PB (OC)
Yume Goto (Uniqlo) - 4:09.93 SB / 4:09.41 PB
Tomoka Kitamura (Sekisui Kagaku) - 4:10.75 SB / 4:09.79 PB
Ayano Ide (Shiseido) - 4:12.03 SB / PB
Ran Urabe (Sekisui Kagaku) - 4:12.14 SB / 4:07.90 PB
Hellen Ekarare (Toyota Jidoshokki) - 4:13.20 SB / 4:05.82 PB (OC)
Ai Fujita (Toyota Jidoshokki) - 4:14.67 SB / PB
Saki Katagihara (Edion) - 4:15.37 SB / 4:13.82 PB
Sherry Drury (Tsuyama H.S.) - 4:15.50 SB / PB
Akira Matsui (Ehime Ginko) - 4:15.91 SB / PB
Maki Izumida (Daiichi Seimei) - 4:16.12 SB / 4:14.94 PB
© 2024 Brett Larner, all rights reserved
Comments
Also interested to see how Aiha Yamagata fares in the 100m event after her stirling performance 2 weeks ago. I really hope she can carry that form here.
Next few days will be exciting to watch.