What Did We Learn at the MGC?

Last weekend's Marathon Grand Championships produced what is at least pretty likely to be the final lineup for Japan's marathon teams at next summer's Paris Olympics. On the one hand it was a big success from the fans' point of view and produced strong, well-balanced, teams with a mix of newcomers and proven veterans. On the other, you could ask who cares? Despite the JAAF's single-minded prioritizing of times in the MGC qualification process, while there's a lot of depth in Japan the front-end times aren't exactly special these days. Kengo Suzuki's men's NR of 2:04:56 is tied for 10th-fastest NR worldwide, and Mizuki Noguchi's museum piece 2:19:12 NR is only 9th-fastest. Not exactly resounding evidence that this system is going to get Japan back into the medals, especially with a general willingness these days to celebrate a top 8 finish as if it's as a good as medaling.

MGC women's runner-up Mao Ichiyama (Shiseido) and 3rd-placer Ai Hosoda (Edion) were the two fastest in the field, and men's 3rd-placer Suguru Osako (GMO/Nike) was 4th-fastest, so speed did matter this time. But what was more interesting was how they were all beaten by others who were a lot slower on paper but had histories of competitive performance. Both winners came in under the radar. Women's winner Yuka Suzuki (Daiichi Seimei) was only 11th-fastest inside the qualification window at 2:25:02, exactly 4 minutes slower than Ichiyama. Men's winner Naoki Koyama (Honda) was technically 20th-fastest inside the window at 2:08:12, but even his 2:07:40 in July after the end of the qualifying period would only have put him at 11th like Suzuki. Men's runner-up Akira Akasaki (Kyudenko) was way down the field at 50th. What can we learn from their histories?

Suzuki was a top collegiate talent, with 10000 m and half marathon national collegiate titles to her name and a gold medal in the half marathon at the 2019 Napoli World University Games. But what said the most about her was her 4th-year run at the 2021 National University Women's Ekiden, where she started off behind 10000 m collegiate record holder Seira Fuwa (Takushoku Univ.), caught up, and tried to hammer her. Suzuki ended up 44 seconds slower than Fuwa but under the old CR, and, what's key, said afterwards that even though it had been scary to try to run Fuwa's pace, that was what she had to do, focus on moving forward regardless of how much better the competition was. That seems relevant to how she ran at the MGC, and it's the right kind of mentality to take to the Olympics.

No surprise that Ichiyama made the team, with the best resume in the field including her 2:20:29 women-only NR win in Nagoya 2020. She was patient when she needed to be, moved when she needed to, broke her strongest competitor when the time came, and gutted it out when she got into trouble. The MGC wasn't her best run, but it came after a tough year and was enough to get the job done. As the top-placing Japanese woman in the Tokyo Olympics marathon at 8th, she knows what she's doing and should be able to build on this.

Hosoda has been working her way up from her 2:29:27 debut in 2019 and showed all the same characteristics Ichiyama did. She really dug deep after getting overtaken by Rika Kaseda (Daihatsu) late in the race and falling to 4th after having broken away with Ichiyama and led at one point, re-opening a gap on Kaseda and coming back within 7 seconds of Ichiyama by the end. She's only in a provisional spot for Paris. How likely is she to make the team?

If anyone runs 2:21:41 at the Osaka International Women's Marathon or Nagoya Women's Marathon next year they'll knock her off the team. Who could do it? The two fastest women in the MGC qualifying window, Hitomi Niiya (Sekisui Kagaku) and Mizuki Matsuda (Daihatsu) both ran faster than that. But for distances longer than 10 km Niiya has only ever run well when she has had both no competition and male friends there to pace her. The second of those won't be true whichever race she chooses, and if Matsuda runs the same race neither will the first one. For her part, Matsuda has hinted she wants to retire to start a family, so it really comes down to how hot the fire is still burning vs. how much she's ready to move on.

Hosoda herself was next-fastest in the qualifying window at 2:21:42, MGC 12th-placer Ayuko Suzuki (Japan Post) next at 2:21:52 and Kaseda next at 2:21:55. Suzuki, Kaseda or anyone else would need to PB, and while 2:21:41 is in range it's not exactly a low bar for any of them. Hosoda will probably have to run either Osaka Women's or Nagoya, but whatever she does there her chances are still relatively OK.

Koyama's 2:07:40 CR win at July's Gold Coast Marathon should have put him on the short list, but with so many faster people in the race he kind of slipped by unnoticed until it was too late. An overseas CR win in 2:07 followed by a 2:08 win in an unpaced Olympic trials in heavy rain. Not something many Japanese runners have matched. Koyama clearly has a sense for racing, not just running fast, which sets him apart. And he's good on hills, just as clearly. If Paris is a Kiptum-Kipchoge blowout then who knows where he'll place, but if it's not that fast and he's able to replicate the way he ran in his back-to-back wins then it could be interesting.

JRN picked men's runner-up Akasaki as serious dark horse contender. Why did we pick him? As we wrote in our preview, Akasaki showed good development in 5000 m over the summer and especially in his last kick, beating 3000 mSC NR holder Ryuji Miura that way. That meant he could be a threat if the race came down to the last km like in 2019, which is exactly what happened. But there was more to it.

In 2018 Akasaki ran the Ageo City Half Marathon in his debut at the distance to try to score an invitation to the 2019 UAL NYC Half Marathon by finishing in the top 2 Japanese spots. At the 10 km turnaround he fell and couldn't get back to the front of the race. Angry at himself, he spent the next year totally focused on going back to Ageo, finishing in the top 2, and scoring a ticket to New York. Which he did. What did that say about Akasaki? It showed he had the ability to understand criteria, set clearing them as a goal, focus on pursuing that goal over a long span of time, show up ready to achieve it, and then perform. And that set him apart from most of the others in the field. Even if he's only a 2:09 guy, he has something inside. We're not surprised in the slightest that he succeeded. If he can apply the same to the Olympics next year then he's going to go good places.

Like Ichiyama, Osako was the top Japanese man in the Tokyo Olympics at 6th. Out of the ten marathons he has finished he's been 3rd five times and top 6 nine times. It's interesting that in the last MGC he lost a last km duel for 2nd to take 3rd, while this time he won a last km duel to take 3rd again. That's progress, in a way. Osako isn't a winner, but he's got the stability to turn in at least a good performance in almost any conditions, and, assuming he survives in the provisional spot, that's a pretty good characteristic to have in someone on the Olympic team.

To knock him off people will have to run 2:05:50 or better. Who could do that? Only Osako and NR holder Kengo Suzuki (Fujitsu) have ever run that fast, and Suzuki was a DNF at the MGC in his first marathon in a year and a half. In that regard Osako is pretty secure, more so than Hosoda, at least. Suzuki has, or at least had, the ability, and the only question is whether he can get back to it in time, if ever. Ichitaka Yamashita (Mitsubishi Juko) is next at 2:05:51, unsuccessful at the MGC after trying a quick turnaround from August's Budapest World Championships but theoretically with enough time to get it together in time for Tokyo. Kenya Sonota (JR Higashi Nihon) is next-closest at 2:05:59, but he was a DNF at the MGC too after doubling from Budapest. Beyond him it really comes down to whether someone at the 2:06 or 2:07 level can drop a good one the way Yamashita and Sonota both did at Tokyo this year.

But again, who cares, you could ask. Given the progress in times worldwide the last couple of seasons the fastest Japanese marathoners are a mile behind the top level of the sport, and as we saw at the MGC most of the fastest only know how to time trial. As former NR holder and two-time Olympic marathon 4th-placer Takeyuki Nakayama said at the end of 2021, "The times are faster, but their racing skill is still just as weak." Yuka Suzuki in particular but also Naoki Koyama and Akira Akasaki showed that there are Japanese marathoners who know how to race, but while the MGC was as successful in identifying them as we hoped when JRN first suggested it to the JAAF, as we saw at the Tokyo Olympics there's still a big jump from there to performing at the Olympic level. Let's hope their coaches don't follow history and take this opportunity to drill them into ground, and that the three of them and their faster teammates get it right.

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