1. Marathon medalists at the Paris Olympics - There weren't any, so nobody makes the team this way. Akira Akasaki (Kyudenko) and Yuka Suzuki (Daiichi Seimei) were the top placers, both of them running PBs in the Olympics to finish 6th. You'd think that would count for something a year later, but you'd think wrong.
2. JMC Series IV Champions - The top point scorers in the Japan Marathon Championship Series IV, which ran from April, 2023 to March, 2025, earn places on the marathon teams along with cash prizes. For women that's Yuka Ando, 1st in Nagoya last year in 2:21:18 and the top Japanese at 11th overall in Tokyo last week in 2:23:37. For men it's Naoki Koyama with his win in the October, 2023 MGC Race Paris Olympics marathon trials and his 2:06:33 PB in Osaka in February last year putting him at the top of the list despite not having broken 2:10 in two races since then.
3. National record breakers - Anyone who broke the marathon national record in one of the designated domestic selection races or a WA Platinum Label marathon abroad between December, 2024 and March, 2025. Nobody did, so nobody made the team this way either.
4. WA qualifying standard breakers - Anyone who cleared the WA qualifying standards for the Tokyo World Championships marathons, 2:06:30 for men and 2:23:30 for women, at one of the designated domestic selection races between December, 2024 and March, 2025. A lot of people did, so the remaining two spots on each team and the alternates will come from this group. More on them below.
5. Qualifiers by world rankings - If the team isn't filled by the four criteria above, people will be selected based on their world ranking. But it was, so this isn't relevant.
Going back to point #4, these are people who made the grade to be considered for the Tokyo Worlds team:
Women
2:20:59 - Sayaka Sato (Sekisui Kagaku) - Nagoya, 1st JPN, 2nd overall, PB
2:21:19 - Kana Kobayashi (Otsuka Seiyaku) - Osaka Women's, 1st JPN, 2nd overall, PB
2:21:33 - Yuka Suzuki (Daiichi Seimei) - Osaka Women's, 2nd JPN, 3rd overall, PB
2:22:11 - Mao Uesugi (Tokyo Metro) - Nagoya, 2nd JPN, 4th overall, PB
2:23:05 - Rika Kaseda (Daihatsu) - Nagoya, 3rd JPN, 5th overall
Men
2:05:16 - Yuya Yoshida (GMO) - Fukuoka Int'l, 1st JPN, 1st overall, PB
2:05:39 - Ryota Kondo (Mitsubishi Juko) - Osaka, 1st JPN, 2nd overall, debut
2:05:58 - Kyohei Hosoya (Kurosaki Harima) - Osaka, 2nd JPN, 4th overall, PB
2:06:00 - Tsubasa Ichiyama (Sunbelx) - Tokyo, 1st JPN, 10th overall, PB
2:06:05 - Asahi Kuroda (Aoyama Gakuin Univ.) - Osaka, 3rd JPN, 6th overall, debut
2:06:06 - Shunya Kikuchi (Chugoku Denryoku) - Osaka, 4th JPN, 7th overall, PB
2:06:07 - Hiroki Wakabayashi (Aoyama Gakuin Univ.) - Beppu-Oita, 1st JPN, 2nd overall, debut
2:06:14 - Hiroto Inoue (Mitsubishi Juko) - Tokyo, 2nd JPN, 12th overall, PB
2:06:18 - Kengo Suzuki (Fujitsu) - Osaka, 5th JPN, 8th overall
2:06:23 - Yuhei Urano (Fujitsu) - Tokyo, 3rd JPN, 13th overall, PB
2:06:28 - Yugo Kashiwa (Konica Minolta) - Osaka, 6th JPN, 9th overall, PB
The women's team looks pretty clear-cut: Yuka Ando for her JMC Series win, Sayaka Sato for her all-time JPN #9 PB of 2:20:59 for 2nd in Nagoya, and Kana Kobayashi for her 2:21:19 PB for 2nd at Osaka Women's, with MGC winner and Paris Olympics 6th-placer Yuka Suzuki as alternate. It seems a bit wild to leave Suzuki off the team since she ran a big PB at Osaka Women's, but Kobayashi did the same and ran her down fair and square. You can debate the merits of having Ando on the team over Suzuki, but based on the published criteria it's hard to see any justification for a lineup other than the one above.
For men it's going to be a more controversial decision. Naoki Koyama is on for sure via his JMC Series IV title, and there is no chance Yuya Yoshida is left off after his all-time JPN #3 2:05:16 CR to win Fukuoka in December. The hard call is the 3rd spot. Ryota Kondo almost won Osaka in February, just 2 seconds off 1st in a 2:05:39 debut marathon record. Experienced marathoner Tsubasa Ichiyama ran an all-time JPN #9 PB of 2:06:00 for 10th in Tokyo this month. One will make it, the other will be alternate.
Kondo looks like the straightforward choice, but it was freezing cold and even snowing in Osaka, the international and domestic fields weren't as competitive as in Tokyo, and the JAAF doesn't like putting people on national teams who qualify in their debuts. Ichiyama ran in weather a lot closer to what it will be like in Tokyo in September, was only 14 seconds off 5th place, beat both Yohei Ikeda, who ran an all-time JPN #2 2:05:12 for 5th in Berlin last fall, and Paris Olympics 6th-placer Akira Akasaki, and has run 2:07 to 2:09 every year since 2021 before breaking through to 2:06.
You could argue that despite a great buildup to Osaka last year Koyama's recent performances mean he shouldn't be on the team, and that it's crazy to leave Ikeda off after his Berlin performance. But that's the system in place. The JMC Series IV champ is in, regardless of recent performances, and international performances don't count directly unless you run a national record. Osaka's 2nd Japanese man Kyohei Hosoya running a 2:05:58 PB doesn't help Ichiyama's chances, but while Kondo was faster and placed higher, Ichiyama has an edge in a couple of other key criteria, especially weather and experience. All they can do is wait and see.
Comments
I agree with the article that Akasaki run in Paris should hold more weight compared to someone that has accumulated points by being more consistent (or just showing up more often) but isn't really going to be a factor in an international event.
Not saying it'd be an easy selection process but with those guidelines is how you end up selecting guys that are surely good runners but that likely never showed they could challenge top athletes at either international/top domestic levels (see K. Nishiyama etc).
In my opinion Akasaki run in Paris should have been the template for what the Jaaf looks for: someone on the rise, willing to take risks, able to adapt to the non shinkansen races.
We'll see who they end up selecting but I'm sure you guys nailed what it's going to happen.