In terms of pure numbers, the 10 fastest men so far in 2022 average 2:07:30 and the 10 fastest women 2:22:45, putting the men #3 in the world behind Ethiopia and Kenya and the women 2nd only to Ethiopia. For men that's the 3rd-fastest annual average ever, following 2021 and 2020. For women it's the fastest-ever. Kengo Suzuki leads the men at 2:05:28, with another 9 men having run 2:07. Mizuki Matsuda is the fastest women at 2:20:52, with 9 other women under 2:25. It's not that meaningful to compare modern times to those from pre-2017 or 2018, but if you add about 2 minutes then things look more in line with the past. A 10-man average of 2:09:30 would be up there as a good pre-2017 year, and 2:24:45 for women would be the 4th-best pre-2017, the best since the 2002-2005 golden years.
It's interesting that after multiple men ran 2:06 in both 2020 and 2021, Suzuki is the only one to run under 2:07 so far, while depth among women is about the best it has ever been. It's also interesting that we're at the point now where we can start to make historical comparisons from within the super shoe era. For example, it's debatable how Suzuki's 2:04:56 NR at Lake Biwa last year compares to Toshinari Takaoka's 2:06:16 NR from 2002, but his 2:05:28 in Tokyo this year was 1 second faster than previous NR holder Suguru Osako's best from 2020, making their relative ability unequivocally clear.
Series I of the JMC ran from December 2020 through the end of this month. Athletes scored points based on time and placing in their best two races during that period, with the top-scoring man and woman named national champions. When it's formally announced that will earn them cash prizes and guaranteed places on the national team for Oregon, if they want them. On the men's side Suzuki is the clear winner, outscoring runner-up Kyohei Hosoya by over 100 points. On the women's side Mao Ichiyama will take the top spot, outdoing Matsuda by only 6 points.
Hosoya and Matsuda are pretty well guaranteed to join Suzuki and Ichiyama in Oregon. The 3rd spot for men is between Osaka winner Gaku Hoshi, who set a 2:07:31 debut marathon NR, and the 2nd Japanese man in Tokyo, Kenya Sonota, 4 seconds faster than Hoshi at 2:07:27 but 7th overall. For women the 3rd spot is between Nagoya 3rd-placer Yuka Ando, 2:22:22, and the 2nd Japanese woman in Tokyo, Hitomi Niiya, 7th overall in 2:21:17. Hoshi and Ando seem like the fair choices, but with the JAAF tending to prioritize time over racing ability don't be surprised if they're left off.
For the 2023 MGC Olympic trials, 28 men and 18 women have already qualified with another year still to go in the qualifying window. That compares to 34 men and 15 women total last time around, even with harder standards for men this time. Some of that is probably due to the shoe effect being more fully-fledged than it was for the 2019 MGC, but depth is looking very good either way, especially among women. 23 men and 12 women have qualified by meeting standards for time and placing, with another 3 men and 2 women getting in via a 2-race average under 2:10 or 2:28. The last 2 men, Hiroto Inoue and Yuya Yoshida, and 1 more woman, Mirai Waku, will get in via a new route for this MGC, by finishing in the top 8 in the JMC Series I rankings when they're formally announced after the end of March.
Only 9 of the 28 men and 5 of the 18 women also qualified in 2019, and out of the 6 members of the 2020 Olympic marathon squads Ichiyama is the only one to have qualified for 2023 so far. The only one to have run a marathon since the Olympics, actually. Some people on both sides have retired since 2019, but there are still multiple A-listers who haven't qualified yet, and with another 20 men under 2:10 and 1 more woman under 2:28 inside the window the bar is pretty low for them to hit the 2-race average route to qualification. We could be looking at much bigger numbers by this time next year.
The average age among qualifiers is almost identical to that in 2019, 28.2 for men vs. 28.3 last time, and 26.8 for women vs. 26.5 in 2019. 26 out of the 28 men graduated from university, 24 of those from schools in the Kanto region, vs. 31 out of 34 being university graduates last time. The biggest difference in the field this time is among women, with 6 out of the 18 qualifiers having graduated compared to only 2 out of 15 last time around. It's still a massive difference from the men, though, and shows the impact the Hakone Ekiden has on men's development. If collegiate, or even corporate league, women had the same kind of focus on half marathon development as university men, would we see larger numbers of women at this level in the marathon? That's the million-dollar question, isn't it?
Komazawa University is the best-represented with 5 men on the list of qualifiers. Toyo University is the only program with alum in both the men's and women's races, 3 in the men's and 1 in the women's. Among corporate teams, Mitsubishi Juko has the most men so far at 3. Daihatsu, Wacoal, Sekisui Kagaku, Tenmaya and Otsuka Seiyaku each have 2 women on the list, but Daisuke Uekado having qualified in the men's race means Otsuka Seiyaku's overall representation ties Mitsubishi Juko's at 3.
A few contenders may turn up overseas later this spring, but with the usually Japan-heavy Gold Coast Marathon in Australia having been excluded from MGC consideration it'll be the fall before there are many significant changes. And if the last few years are any indication, expect a lot more last-minute adds between January and March next year.
The other million-dollar question is whether the whole MGC thing, originally intended to produce more competitive Olympic marathon teams that could get Japan back onto the medal stand, is going to do any good. The year-long Olympic postponement makes it hard to assess how successful it was in reaching that objective the first time around, but there's no question it created major public buzz and that athletes responded to the higher bar. In those areas it was a success.
But there's also no question that by having both the JMC and MGC series explicitly favor inferior results in domestic races over superior results overseas, it's prioritizing the JAAF's financial interests in the domestic races over putting together the best possible teams for Worlds and the Olympics. As marathon great Takeyuki Nakayama said in December, "The times are faster now, but their racing skill is still just as weak." Endless super-deep time trial marathons at home are great, but when being the 6th Japanese man in a domestic race is enough to get you into the trials and 4th in a World Marathon Majors race in a faster time isn't, how are they ever going to learn to race or even have the motivation to learn? The system right now will produce faster people, but as it stands it's pretty dubious whether it'll produce people with the racing skills to be more competitive in Oregon or Paris.
Comments
My main focus is on the women's field so it would be interesting to see if the 3 Japanese women selected can do more than achieve a top 5-10 finish. For me, if Hitomi Niiya is fully fit and fully invested mentally for the marathon then I'd grant her the 3rd spot selection in a heart beat. The reason is because she set the Japanese Half Marathon record on American soil in a blistering time and has the greatest potential for a huge time improvement. However, if Yuka Ando gets the spot it would still be an excellent trio.
I highly agree that racing overseas and making different experiences would add another kind of growth to athletes. Not denying that at all and I wish the federation would encourage and push athletes to do just that.
That said I'm not sure I fully agree with the weak racing skills of those athletes.
I think the lack of "elite"speed on shorter distances is more of a factor compared to some kenyans,ethiopians and the top african-born athletes. There's only so much that race savvy and smarts can do when other athletes have a faster base.
That doesn't mean that more racing outside of the country's bubble wouldn't help but I think it's critical that their fastest athletes decide to move on to the marathon stage and help push everyone else further again.
I think the movement is healthy (even with its flaws), just needs some real aces up their sleeves.