Bigger things are happening in the world right now, but this Sunday the Tokyo Marathon returns to the streets with a full-sized elite and mass participation field for the first time since 2019. World record holders Brigid Kosgei and Eliud Kipchoge are there to lead it, broadcast live in 160 countries worldwide starting at 9:00 a.m. local Japan time with JRN's Brett Larner on the commentary once again. Follow the leaderboard here, with athlete tracking here.
For the second time in its history Tokyo has a significant course change this year, the addition of a new out-and-back toward Ueno just before 10 km and an equivalent cut from the final out-and-back toward Shinagawa. Not counting the triangular turnaround at Asakusa, that means Tokyo has gone from one 180˚ turn on the original course to two on the interim course to three on this course, something that will impact its overall quality and especially so for the wheelchair marathoners.
The women's wheelchair race features only two athletes, Japanese national record holder and 2020 Tokyo winner Tsubasa Kina and legend Wakako Tsuchida, in a one-on-one follow-up to last September's Tokyo Paralympics marathon where Tsuchida took 4th and Kina 7th. World record holder, Tokyo Paralympics gold medalist and 2019 Tokyo winner Marcel Hug of Switzerland is one of only two international men in the wheelchair race, where his main competition comes from Paralympics 7th-placer Tomoki Suzuki, the 2020 Tokyo winner and the only other athlete in the race under 1:20 in the last 3 years with a 1:18:37 NR last year.
In the women's marathon everything depends on Kosgei, the Olympic silver medalist in Sapporo last summer. Whatever she or whoever wins runs it'll be a new course record, but the 2:17:45 event record is about a minute faster than Kosgei has run since setting her 2:14:04 world record in 2019 and it won't be easy for her to get it, even with good weather currently in the forecast. Angela Tanui and Ashete Bekere, maybe Hiwot Gebrekidan, could take a high-2:17 to low-2:18 race, so the potential's there for a pack race up front.
An exciting subplot comes just behind that. As of mid-January the American and Japanese women's national records are tied at 2:19:12, the first time in over 20 years that U.S. women have caught up. In the race in Tokyo are U.S. half marathon NR holder Sara Hall, Japanese women-only marathon NR holder Mao Ichiyama, and JPN half marathon NR holder Hitomi Niiya. Ethiopians Gotytom Gebreslase and Helen Bekele are right around the same level, so there's good potential for a pack run in pursuit of an NR tiebreaker, especially with what's bound to be a massive group of sub-elite men surrounding them. If the top group is on the slower side or the Hall/Ichiyama group is especially aggressive then the pack could be even bigger. Whatever happens, the Japanese women will need to clear the JAAF's 2:23:18 standard for consideration for the Oregon World Championships team.
The men's field has been hit by withdrawals in its upper end, most notably 2019-2020 winner Birhanu Legese, the fastest man in the race after Kipchoge, domestic 2:06 guys Kyohei Hosoya and Yusuke Ogura, and a half-dozen Japanese men and JPN-based Kenyans at the 2:07 level. Olympic gold medalist Kipchoge is the favorite, but he's still vulnerable to #3 man Mosinet Geremew, runner-up to him by 18 seconds at London '19. At the pre-race presser Geremew predicted a 2:03:30 to Kipchoge's prediction of a "strong" race. A slower one closer to the 2:03:58 event record would bring at least Amos Kipruto and Tamirat Tola into the picture, with the possible addition of Jonathan Korir and the top tier of Japanese men. Kipchoge hasn't run under 2:04 in almost three years, so no matter what happens he'll need a step back up to add another World Marathon Majors title to his list of wins.
Japanese NR holder Kengo Suzuki is in the race, and while he was cagey at the pre-race press conference he has mentioned 2:03 to the Japanese media in recent weeks. He told JRN last week that running Chicago last fall, where he was 4th in 2:08:50, was a real eye-opener in terms of what it takes to race instead of just riding the shinkansen effect like at all the big Japanese races. At the presser he said that, as in his NR run for the win at Lake Biwa last year, his priority is racing without thinking about the time. Keep in mind that in his 2:04:56 NR he ran the last 5 km in 14:23, a split not too many people have bettered. Kipchoge split 14:18 for the same segment in his 2:01:39 WR run in Berlin. Suzuki and Ichiyama got married last year, adding a possible little side mission of bettering the record for fastest-ever married and couple in the same race, 4:27:05 by Kenyans Purity Cherotich Rionoripo and Paul Kipchumba Lonyangata in Paris 2017.
Selection for Japan's team for this summer's Oregon World Championships is complicated, with the most direct line being a place at the top of Japan's new national championship rankings. 2021 Fukuoka runner-up Kyohei Hosoya, one of the last-minute withdrawals, is currently in the top position, but with Tokyo being the last race in the rankings series he's vulnerable to being knocked off by a solid run from Suzuki or 2:06 men Hidekazu Hijikata, Ryu Takaku, Hiroto Inoue and Daisuke Uekado. Inoue, the only one of them to have run 2:06 twice, is looking especially dangerous, with a superb run at the New Year Ekiden and a half marathon PB in Osaka at the end of January. That's enough to have had him talking national record. 2:07:53 is the minimum for having a chance at Oregon team selection.
Not to be overlooked are 2020 and 2021 Fukuoka winners Yuya Yoshida and Michael Githae. In his two marathons to date Yoshida has yet to look like he's anywhere near his potential, so Tokyo this time around will be a major test of where he really stands among the incredible depth of Japanese marathoning. In the best-case scenario and most popular hope, that's right there alongside Suzuki. Githae attacked early in Fukuoka to win, surging off an ambitious 2:05 pace, fading to 2:07:51 but impressing with his ability to keep pushing through the tough times. It's unlikely he could survive a 2:03 race but expect him to give at least 2:05 another go. Like we saw in Osaka last week, the sheer depth here means that there's always a good chance someone totally unexpected will drop a breakthrough when it counts the most, and with at least six places at the 2024 Olympic trials there for the taking in Tokyo it's almost a given that you're going to be hearing another name or two for the first time.
2021 Tokyo Marathon
Elite Field Highlights
Tokyo, 6 Mar. 2022
times listed are best in last 3 years except where noted
Women
Brigid Kosgei (Kenya) - 2:14:04 (Chicago 2019)
Angela Tanui (Kenya) - 2:17:57 (Amsterdam 2021)
Ashete Bekere (Ethiopia) - 2:18:18 (London 2021)
Hiwot Gebrekidan (Ethiopia) - 2:19:35 (Milan 2021)
Gotytom Gebreslase (Ethiopia) - 2:20:09 (Berlin 2021)
Mao Ichiyama (Wacoal) - 2:20:29 (Nagoya 2020)
Sara Hall (U.S.A.) - 2:20:32 (Marathon Project 2020)
Helen Bekele (Ethiopia) - 2:21:01 (Tokyo 2019)
Shiho Kaneshige (GRlab Kanto) - 2:28:51 (Osaka Int'l 2020)
Hitomi Niiya (Sekisui Kagaku) - 2:30:58 (Nagoya 2009)
Miharu Shimokado (SID Group) - 2:32:48 (Osaka Int'l 2020)
Yui Okada (Otsuka Seiyaku) - 2:32:00 (Nagoya 2020)
Hitomi Mizuguchi (Uniqlo) - 2:32:33 (Osaka Int'l 2020)
Mai Fujisawa (Hokkaido Excel AC) - 2:35:52 (Kanazawa 2021)
Tomomi Sawahata (Sawahatters) - 2:36:45 (Osaka Int'l 2022)
Debut / Do-Over
Kaori Morita (Panasonic) - 1:10:28 (Nat'l Corp. Half 2021)
Rika Kaseda (Daihatsu) - 31:39.86 (Nat'l Championships 2020)
Men
Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya) - 2:02:37 (London 2019)
Mosinet Geremew (Ethiopia) - 2:02:55 (London 2019)
Amos Kipruto (Kenya) - 2:03:30 (Valencia 2020)
Tamirat Tola (Ethiopia) - 2:03:39 (Amsterdam 2021)
Jonathan Korir (Kenya) - 2:04:32 (Amsterdam 2021)
Kengo Suzuki (Fujitsu) - 2:04:56 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Shura Kitata (Ethiopia) - 2:05:01 (London 2019)
Hidekazu Hijikata (Honda) - 2:06:26 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Ryu Takaku (Yakult) - 2:06:45 (Tokyo 2020)
Hiroto Inoue (Mitsubishi Juko) - 2:06:47 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Daisuke Uekado (Otsuka Seiyaku) - 2:06:54 (Tokyo 2020)
Toshiki Sadakata (Mitsubishi Juko) - 2:07:05 (Tokyo 2020)
Yuya Yoshida (GMO) - 2:07:05 (Fukuoka Int'l 2020)
Masato Kikuchi (Konica Minolta) - 2:07:20 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Kento Kikutani (Toyota Boshoku) - 2:07:26 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Yuta Shimoda (GMO) - 2:07:27 (Tokyo 2020)
Masaki Sakuda (JR Higashi Nihon) - 2:07:42 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Michael Githae (Kenya/Suzuki) - 2:07:51 (Fukuoka Int'l 2021)
Atsumi Ashiwa (Honda) - 2:07:54 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Laban Korir (Kenya) - 2:07:56 (Amsterdam 2021)
Kenya Sonota (JR Higashi Nihon) - 2:08:11 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Kento Otsu (Toyota Kyushu) - 2:08:15 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Naoya Sakuda (JR Higashi Nihon) - 2:08:21 (Fukuoka Int'l 2020)
Daisuke Hosomori (YKK) - 2:08:28 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Keisuke Hayashi (GMO) - 2:08:52 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Kazuma Kubo (Nishitetsu) - 2:08:53 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Chihiro Miyawaki (Toyota) - 2:09:04 (Tokyo 2020)
Takumi Kiyotani (Chugoku Denryoku) - 2:09:13 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Yuki Sato (SGH Group) - 2:09:18 (Berlin 2018)
Kei Katanishi (JR Higashi Nihon) - 2:09:27 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Taku Fujimoto (Toyota) - 2:09:36 (Fukuoka Int'l 2019)
Takamitsu Hashimoto (Komori Corp.) - 2:09:43 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Keisuke Tanaka (Fujitsu) - 2:10:07 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Kensuke Horio (Toyota) - 2:10:21 (Tokyo 2019)
Akira Tomiyasu (Tokyo T&F Assoc.) - 2:10:29 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Ryo Matsumoto (Toyota) - 2:10:32 (Lake Biwa 2020)
Ryota Komori (NTN) - 2:10:33 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Takuma Kumagai (Sumitomo Denko) - 2:10:41 (Fukuoka Int'l 2021)
Yuki Nakamura (Sumitomo Denko) - 2:10:47 (Lake Biwa 2021)
Takuma Shibata (Komori Corp.) - 2:10:48 (Hofu 2020)
Daiji Kawai (Toenec) - 2:10:50 (Lake Biwa 2019)
Junnosuke Matsuo (NTT Nishi Nihon) - 2:11:00 (Beppu-Oita 2020)
Asuka Tanaka (Runlife) - 2:11:07 (Fukuoka Int'l 2020)
Taiki Yoshimura (Asahi Kasei) - 2:11:13 (Hofu 2019)
Toshinori Watanabe (GMO) - 2:11:17 (Katsuta 2020)
Debut / Do-Over
Tomoya Ogikubo (Yakult) - 1:00:43 (Nat'l Corp. Half 2022)
Naoki Koyama (Honda) - 1:01:08 (Nat'l Corp. Half 2020)
Wheelchair Women
Wakako Tsuchida (Will Raise) - 1:38:32
Tsubasa Kina (Ryukyu Sports Support) - 1:40:13
Wheelchair Men
Marcel Hug (Switzerland) - 1:17:47 (Oita 2021)
Tomoki Suzuki (Toyota) - 1:18:37 (Oita 2021)
Sho Watanabe (Toppan) - 1:24:00 (Oita 2019)
Ryota Yoshida (SUS) - 1:24:02 (Oita 2019)
Takashi Yoshida (Oku En Tout Cas) - 1:24:02 (Oita 2019)
Johnboy Smith (Great Britain) - 1:25:45 (Grandma's 2021)
Hiroki Nishida (Baccarat Pacific) - 1:27:19 (Oita 2021)
Masazumi Soejima (Socio Soejima) - 1:29:23 (Oita 2021)
Ryuichi Kawamuro (Honda AC) - 1:29:35 (Boston 2019)
Kota Hokinoue (Yahoo) - 1:29:38 (Oita 2021)
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