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Tokyo Marathon Preview



The Tokyo Marathon kicks off the 2026 Abbott World Marathon Majors this Sunday. The forecast is looking pretty good, maybe a bit on the warm side but not like last year or even last weekend in Osaka, and with quality fields in all 4 races there's a decent chance we'll see some fast times on Tokyo's borderline record-eligible downhill course. As usual, JRN's Brett Larner will host Nippon TV's international broadcast on local affiliates in 115 countries worldwide starting at 9:00 a.m. local time Sunday. Details on where to watch the broadcast here. A live leaderboard will be posted here on race morning.

In the wheelchair races Switzerland's Catherine Debrunner and Japan's Tomoki Suzuki both broke the Tokyo course records last year and are back for more this year. Debrunner could get a race out of British athlete Eden Rainbow-Cooper who she beat by just 1 second in Berlin 3 years ago, and if they go the whole way there could be another new CR. Suzuki won last year in the absence of the great Marcel Hug, but Hug is back this year and is pretty much the only one in the race who could compete against a fully battle-ready Suzuki.


Ethiopian Sutume Asefa Kebede won Tokyo last year in 2:16:31 and set her PB of 2:15:55 here 2 years ago. She said pre-race that her training has been great and that she's here to PB on the course she knows so well. Who could compete with her? Hawi Feysa was 3rd to Sutume last year in a PB of 2:17:00, then went on to win in Chicago last fall in another big PB of 2:14:57. Last fall's Berlin winner and past Tokyo champ Rosemary Wanjiru with a PB of 2:16:14 in Tokyo 2024 makes it 3 winners from last year's AWMM series lining up in Tokyo, and expect to see at least 2:16 women Megertu Alemu and Brigid Kosgei go with them.

With a best of 2:20:31 from Berlin 2024 Ai Hosoda is the top Japanese woman in the race, but she has announced that she is retiring after Tokyo despite having qualified for the Los Angeles Olympics marathon trials. At the pre-race press conference, below, she refused to give a solid time goal, saying only that she would run up to her preparations and target a negative split with special focus on the segment after 40 km. Yumi Yoshikawa is the next-best Japanese woman in the field with a PB of 2:25:20, and to join Hosoda in qualifying for the L.A. trials she needs to run sub-2:27:00 and finish in the top 6 Japanese women, or run sub-2:23:30. Mirai Waku and Yuri Karasawa are really the only other Japanese women who could get under 2:27:00, so that seems like an achievable goal for Yoshikawa, who comes in fresh off a 1:09:14 half marathon PB in Osaka in January.

The men's race has lost 2 of its top 4 entrants, leaving the field fronted by 6 people at the 2:03 level, led by 2024 London Marathon winner Alexander Mutiso, last year's 3rd-placer Vincent Ngetich and 2025 winner Tadese Takele. Takele said pre-race that he is going for sub-2:03, and with pacing in place to help make that a reality it's not out of the picture. Last year's 6th-placer Geoffrey Toroitich is a potential upset to the big 3, fresh off a 2:03:30 PB for the win in Amsterdam last fall, and Tokyo World Championships marathon bronze medalist Iliass Aouani and Tokyo Olympics 10000 m gold medalist Selemon Barega are both in the mix too.

Japanese men have basically 3 routes to qualifying for the L.A. trials in Tokyo: being in the first 6 Japanese finishers and sub-2:09:00, running sub-2:06:30, or, to be on the list to bypass the trials and be named directly to the L.A. team, having the fastest time under 2:04:00 at the end of the qualification window this time next year. 2:03:59 is still almost a minute under the JPN NR, but what's super-interesting here is that we've got the 2 fastest Japanese men ever in the marathon, Suguru Osako, 2:04:55 in Valencia in December, and Kengo Suzuki, 2:04:56 at the Miracle at Lake Biwa in 2021, AND they've been training for Tokyo together in Boulder the last couple of months. Suzuki ran a 1:00:56 half marathon PB in Houston in January but refused to commit to a time goal at the pre-race press conference, saying only that it's not as easy to attack, attack, attack now that he's gotten older but that that's the kind of race he'd like to run. Osako likewise acknowledged that it was a short turnaround since Valencia, but said he'd done the same kind of training he had for his NR and is ready to run his best.

There's going to be pacing for the 2:03:59 L.A. auto-qualifier, but it remains to be seen who would go with that other than Aoi Ota, an excellent ekiden runner who went out with the leaders in his debut in Tokyo last year only to DNF after 30 km. Pending final confirmation at tomorrow's technical meeting, the next pace group is slated for 2:05-flat, and expect to see the majority of the top-end Japanese men in that group to try for a securing of their Olympic trials places. In this group are likely to be Tokyo World Championships top JPN placer Ryota Kondo, last year's top-placing Japanese man in Tokyo Tsubasa Ichiyama, Sydney Marathon 6th-placer Masato Arao, 2:07-level runners Riki Nakanishi and Koki Takada, debuting collegians Shinsaku Kudo from Waseda University and Teruki Shimada from Teikyo University, and a ton more.

Tokyo is hosting a lot of men's marathon NR holders across a range of time and ability levels this year, Osako leading the way and followed by Canadian Cam Levins, Sweden's Suldan Hussan, Uzbekistan's Shokhrukh Davlatov, Ireland NR holder Fearghal Curtin fresh off pacing in Daegu last weekend, and Mongolian Olympian Ser-Od Bat-Ochir. Along with Kudo and Shimada, top-tier Japan-based Kenyan first-timer Richard Kimunyan is also potentially in the mix at at least the 2nd group level.

s2026 Tokyo Marathon Elite Field Highlights

Tokyo, 1 Mar. 2026
times listed are athletes' best in last 3 years except where noted

Women
Hawi Feysa (Ethiopia) - 2:14:57 (Chicago 2025)
Sutume Asefa Kebede (Ethiopia) - 2:15:55 (Tokyo 2024)
Rosemary Wanjiru (Kenya) - 2:16:14 (Tokyo 2024)
Megertu Alemu (Ethiopia) - 2:16:34 (London 2024)
Brigid Kosgei (Kenya) - 2:16:36 (Shanghai 2025)
Bertukan Welde (Ethiopia) - 2:17:56 (Amsterdam 2025)
Mestawut Fikir (Ethiopia) - 2:18:48 (Berlin 2024)
Mekides Shimeles (Ethiopia) - 2:19:56 (Amsterdam 2025)
Aberu Ayana (Ethiopia) - 2:20:20 (Berlin 2024)
Waganesh Mekasha (Ethiopia) - 2:20:26 (Amsterdam 2025)
Ai Hosoda (Japan/Edion) - 2:20:31 (Berlin 2024)
Azmera Gebru (Ethiopia) - 2:21:29 (Berlin 2025)
Viola Cheptoo (Kenya) - 2:21:40 (Berlin 2025)
Pascalia Jepkogei (Kenya) - 2:22:49 (Cape Town 2024)
Malindi Elmore (Canada) - 2:23:30 (Berlin 2023)
Sara Hall (U.S.A.) - 2:23:45 (Valencia 2024)
Yumi Yoshikawa (Japan/Canon) - 2:25:20 (Osaka Int'l 2023)
Yuyu Xia (China) - 2:25:45 (Nagoya Women's 2024)
Mirai Waku (Japan/Univ. Ent.) - 2:25:58 (Nagoya Women's 2023)
Zhixuan Li (China) - 2:26:17 (Nanjing 2024)
Li Bai (China) - 2:26:33 (Wuxi 2023)
Bingjie Xu (China) - 2:27:11 (Wuxi 2025)
Aleksandra Brzezińska (Poland) - 2:27:20 (Valencia 2023)
Yuri Karasawa (Japan/Kraftia) - 2:27:27 (Osaka 2023)
Ying Lu (China) - 2:27:30 (Wuxi 2025)
Solange Jesus (Portugal) - 2:27:30 (Seville 2024)
Min Liu (China) - 2:28:16 (Wuxi 2025)
Vanessa Wilson (Australia) - 2:28:34 (Berlin 2024)
Miao Yao (China) - 2:30:13 (Shanghai 2025)
Yukari Nagatomo (Japan/Memolead) - 2:30:37 (Tokyo 2025)
Sinead Diver (Australia) - 2:31:27 (Sydney 2023)

Debut
Kristine Engeset (Norway) - 1:10:32 (Valencia Half 2025)
Chikako Mori (Japan/Sekisui Kagaku) - 1:12:33 (Nat'l Corp. Half 20239

Men
Alexander Mutiso (Kenya/ND Software) - 2:03:11 (Valencia 2023)
Vincent Kipkemoi Ngetich (Kenya) - 2:03:13 (Berlin 2023)
Tadese Takele (Ethiopia) - 2:03:23 (Tokyo 2025)
Geoffrey Toroitich (Kenya) - 2:03:30 (Amsterdam 2025)
Dawit Wolde (Ethiopia) - 2:03:48 (Valencia 2023)
Daniel Mateiko (Kenya) - 2:04:24 (Valencia 2024)
Suguru Osako (Japan/Li-Ning) - 2:04:55 (Valencia 2025)
Chalu Deso (Ethiopia) - 2:05:14 (Valencia 2023)
Selemon Barega (Ethiopia) - 2:05:15 (Seville 2025)
Seifu Tura (Ethiopia) - 2:05:17 (London 2025)
Shiferu Tamru (Ethiopia) - 2:05:28 (Dubai 2025)
Cam Levins (Canada) - 2:05:36 (Tokyo 2023)
Ryotaro Kondo (Japan/Mitsubishi Juko) - 2:05:39 (Osaka 2025)
Suldan Hassan (Sweden) - 2:05:57 (Tokyo 2025)
Muktar Edris (Ethiopia) - 2:05:59 (Boston 2025)
Tsubasa Ichiyama (Japan/Sunbelx) - 2:06:00 (Tokyo 2025)
Iliass Aouani (Italy) - 2:06:06 (Valencia 2024)
Kengo Suzuki (Japan) - 2:06:18 (Osaka 2025)
Simon Kariuki (Kenya/Togami Denki) - 2:06:29 (Tokyo 2024)
Barnaba Kipkoech (Kenya) - 2:06:54 (Koln 2025)
Derese Workneh (Ethiopia/Hiramatsu Byoin) - 2:06:58 (Hofu 2025)
Shokhrukh Davlatov (Uzbekistan) - 2:07:02 (Valencia 2023)
Peiyou Feng (China) - 2:07:06 (Valencia 2024)
Shaohui Yang (China) - 2:07:09 (Fukuoka Int'l 2023)
Tadesse Getahon (Israel) - 2:07:15 (Amsterdam 2025)
Vincent Raimoi (Kenya/Suzuki) - 2:07:23 (Tokyo 2023)
Benard Kimani (Kenya/Comodi Iida) - 2:07:28 (Osaka 2025)
Riki Nakanishi (Japan/Toenec) - 2:07:29 (Osaka 2025)
Masato Arao (Japan/ND Software) - 2:07:42 (Sydney 2025)
Fearghal Curtin (Ireland) - 2:07:54 (Gyeongju 2025)
Koki Takada (Japan/Sumitomo Denko) - 2:07:57 (Osaka 2025)
Abayneh Degu (Ethiopia) - 2:08:28 (Osaka 2023)
Kazuya Azegami (Japan/Aichi T&F Assoc.) - 2:08:29 (Osaka 2023)
Aoi Ota (Japan/GMO) - 2:08:31 (Gold Coast 2025)
Ryoma Takeuchi (Japan/ND Software) - 2:08:38 (Gold Coast 2025)
Yuichi Yasui (Japan/Aichi T&F Assoc.) - 2:08:48 (Beppu-Oita 2023)
Yakoub Labquira (Morocco) - 2:09:04 (Zurich 2025)
Kei Katanishi (Japan/JR Higashi Nihon) - 2:09:14 (Osaka 2025)
Hideyuki Tanaka (Japan/Toyota) - 2:09:27 (Osaka 2024)
Ryuichi Hashimoto (Japan/Press Kogyo) - 2:09:40 (Osaka 2025)
Yuma Morii (Japan/Kyoto T&F Assoc,) - 2:09:59 (Boston 2024)

Debut
Richard Kimunyan (Kenya/Logisteed) - 59:37 (RAK Half 2023)
Shinsaku Kudo (Japan/Waseda Univ.) - 1:00:06 (Marugame Half 2025)
Teruki Shimada (Japan/Teikyo Univ.) - 1:00:56 (Marugame Half 2025)
Kiseki Shiozawa (Japan/Fujitsu) - 1:01:43 (Nat'l Corp. Half 2023)

Wheelchair Women
Catherine Debrunner (Switzerland) - 1:34:16 (Berlin 2023)
Eden Rainbow-Cooper (Great Britain) - 1:34:17 (Berlin 2023)
Manuela Schar (Switzerland) - 1:35:08 (Berlin 2024)
Zhou Zhaoqian (China) - 1:37:46 (Tokyo 2025)
Wakako Tsuchida (Japan/Willraise) - 1:37:59 (Oita 2022)
Tatyana McFadden (U.S.A.) - 1:39:04 (Chicago 2025)
Vanessa De Souza (Brazil) - 1:39:55 (Grandma's 2025)
Patricia Eachus (Switzerland) - 1:40:00 (Oita 2024)
Madison De Rozario (Australia) - 1:40:32 (Tokyo 2025)
Tsubasa Nakamine (Japan/Tess Engineering) - 1:44:34 (Tokyo 2024)

Wheelchair Men
Marcel Hug (Switzerland) - 1:15:33 (Boston 2024)
Tomoki Suzuki (Japan/Toyota) - 1:19:14 (Tokyo 2025)
Luo Xingchuan (China) - 1:21:55 (Oita 2025)
Jetze Plat (Netherlands) - 1:24:28 (Dubai 2023)
Geert Schipper (Netherlands) - 1:26:51 (London 2025)
Hiroki Kishizawa (Japan/Hitachi Solutions) - 1:28:04 (Oita 2025)
Sho Watanabe (Japan/Toppan) - 1:28:50 (Berlin 2025)
Hiroki Nishida (Japan/Baccarrat Pacific) - 1:31:03 (Tokyo 2025)
Samuel Rizzo (Australia) - 1:31:11 (Gold Coast 2025)

text and photo © 2026 Brett Larner, all rights reserved

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Comments

Sehthree said…
Kengo Suzuki is only 30 years old and Osako just set the NR at 34 years old. He is not old at all lol. He's in the prime marathon age right now, but doesn't sound like they're going to attack the NR tbh.
Anonymous said…
Kondo and Ichiyama ran well at New Year's Ekiden and could be in play for a new PB which would take them closer to NR.
Aoi Ota ran even better there and in the press conference he appeared to prioritize a more conservative approach than last year trying to be better from 30 km onwards. Well, if this time he doesn't go out 14.25 5k like last year he might do that haha. I don't know, he's exciting to watch but we know he might overdo it again. (and like Yoshida he should drink/eat and care after himself better as they both ended up dehydrated)

Kudo's debut is exciting and so is Masato Arao development. I think that him with Osako, Suzuki, Ichiyama, Kondo and some others there could be a very solid group in the low 2.05 and if someone is feeling it the NR might be in place. It might be wise for Ota to go with this group rather than with the 2.03.59 one (though I find this option very exciting)but we'll see how it goes. Looking forward to the live commentary if I manage to watch.
Anonymous said…
Larner needs a punch in the head asap

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