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Tokyo Marathon Preview (updated)




It’s Tokyo Marathon weekend, and the main question right now is about the weather. Monday’s Osaka Marathon had freezing cold temperatures and snow over the last quarter of the race, which still had record-breaking performances. Right now Tokyo looks to be in the mid-teens most of the race and could hit 20˚ by the end. Cloud cover will be critical, and what’s in the forecast right now looks like it will burn off by the last hour of the race. It could get a bit rough out there.

Nippon TV, the world’s premiere road race broadcaster, is doing the live TV broadcast from 9:00 to 11:50 a.m. local time, with an international TV feed hosted by JRN’s Brett Larner to be shown in 159 countries worldwide. The leaderboard with live splits and results will be here, with Japanese-language tracking here.

Both the women’s and men’s races have great fields lined up. On the women’s side is last year’s winner and CR-breaker Sutume Asefa Kebede, facing 2024 Dubai and Berlin winner Tigist Ketema, 2023 Tokyo winner Rosemary Wanjiru, 2024 Frankfurt winner Hawi Feysa, 2022 World Championships gold medalist and 2023 World Championships silver medalist Gotytom Gebresslase, 2024 Lanzhou winner Magdalene Masai, 2024 Barcelona winner Degitu Azimeraw, 2024 Nagoya winner Yuka Ando, 2023 Olympic Trials 3rd-placer Ai Hosoda and more.

Sutume ran her best of 2:15:55 in winning Tokyo last year and followed up with a 2:17:32 for 2nd in Chicago after switching brands from Nike to On. At the pre-race press conference she said, “I’ve covered everything in training, long distance, speed work, everything. I’m in PB shape.” But Tigist, Wanjiru and Hawi all ran faster than Sutume’s Chicago time in their most recent marathons, so it might take something close to that kind of time to win it. Speaking in Japanese, Wanjiru got laughs at the press conference when asked if it would take a 2:15 to win and she answered, “Yeah, well, I guess we’ll see, huh?”

Hosoda is Japan’s top bet in the women’s race, 3rd at there 2023 Paris Olympic trials but was bumped down to alternate after Honami Maeda later ran a national record in Osaka. Hosoda said that she trained for Tokyo in warm conditions on Amami Oshima and is confident if it’s warm, and with a smooth buildup without any setbacks she will be aiming to better her 2:20:31 PB. 32 seconds better and she’ll become the 6th Japanese woman under 2:20.

The potential weather notwithstanding, pacing in the women's race is ambitious:

Group 1: 3:08~3:09/km → 2:12:13~2:12:55 (aggressive CR pace)
Group 2: 3:11~3:12/km → 2:14:19~2:15:01 (CR pace)
Group 3: 3:14~3:15/km → 2:16:26~2:17:08 (NR/WL pace)
Group 4: 3:20/km → 2:20:30 pace




The men’s race has last year’s CR-breaking winner and Paris Olympics marathon bronze medalist Benson Kipruto, 5000/10000m world record holder and Paris Olympics 10000 m gold medalist Joshua Cheptegei, Paris Olympics 5th and 6th-placers Deresa Geleta and Akira Akasaki, this year’s Xiamen winner Dawit Wolde, 2024 Amsterdam winner Tsegaye Getachew, 2022-2023 Seoul winner Amedework Walelegn, 2023 World Championships bronze medalist Leul Gebresilase, 2024 Paris and Toronto winner Mulugeta Asefa Uma, debuting Hakone Ekiden star Aoi Ota, and millions more. Pacing is pretty ambitious here too:

Group 1: 2:52~2:53/km → 2:00:58~2:01:40 (CR pace)
Group 2: 2:55~2:56/km → 2:03:04~2:03:46 (aggressive WL/NR pace)
Group 3: 2:57~2:58/km → 2:04:29~2:05:11 (WL/NRish pace)
Group 4: 2:59/km → 2:05:53 pace

Kipruto, Deresa and Birhanu Legese are the only ones in the field to have run under 2:03, and with 2:03 men Vincent Kipkemoi Ngetich, Tadese Tekele and Dawit, Cheptegei in his second stab at the distance, and a raft of people at the 2:04-05 level, it’s going to be deep up front where pace groups are currently set at 2:53/km (2:01:40 pace), 2:55/km (2:03:04 pace) and 2:57/km (2:04:29 pace). At the pre-race press conference Kipruto predicted a fast race with a 60:50 first half, Deresa slightly more conservative was a 2:02 finish prediction. Cheptegei said on the one hand that he wouldn't be returning to the track and would be focusing on the marathon in the future, telling media, "I'm better-prepared than I was in Valencia, and I'm ready to rise again in the land of the rising sun." But on the other he downplayed expectations, saying, "I'm still a student of the marathon. I'm on a learning curve and hope to learn from the big guys in the marathon like Benson and Geleta."

Targeting spots on the home team for September’s Tokyo World Championships, most of the Japanese men will probably go with that 3rd group, or at least would be smart to if there isn’t a 4th group at 2:59. The biggest hope is Yohei Ikeda, all-time Japanese #2 2:05:12 for 6th in Berlin last fall and coached by former NR holder Toshinari Takaoka. Stellar in his most recent race, Ikeda won the Jan. 1 New Year Ekiden’s 21.9 km 2nd leg in 1:01:48, equivalent to a 59:33 half marathon. That predicts a 2:05:03 marathon, which puts him right on the cusp of the 2:04:56 NR. "There's a great international and domestic field here, and I want to race for a good placing without worrying about exactly what time," he said.

Akasaki is the other big hope, running beyond his credentials in almost every big race of his career to date and dropping a 2-minute PB of 2:07:32 for 6th at the Paris Olympics. This is his big chance to take that time to the next level. "It's been over 6 months since the Olympics, and I'm ready to go for time," he said. "I'm going for a PB, but I don't have a particular time goal. I just want to focus on my own running and go where that gets me."

Ota, one of the star runners from this year’s Hakone Ekiden champ Aoyama Gakuin University, ran the equivalent of a 58:56 half marathon at last year’s Hakone, predicted 2:03:46 potential. He wasn’t quite at that level in his last year of college this past season, but he still says he’ll go with the first group no matter what. It's hard to see him surviving going out at sub-2:01 pace in his debut, but with AGU runners Hiroki Wakabayashi and Asahi Kuroda having set collegiate marathon records of 2:06:07 and 2:06:05 in the last month a new collegiate record has to be a minimum goal for Ota.

A dark horse in the domestic race is 2:07 runner Tsubasa Ichiyama. Coming off an injury late last year, Ichiyama won last month’s National Corporate Half Marathon in 1:00:22, an all-time top 10 Japanese mark, in the midst of his Tokyo prep. Ichiyama tells JRN he’s ready for 2:05, but even if he pulls that off the question is whether that’ll be enough for him to be in the top Japanese spot.

Tokyo Marathon Elite Field Highlights

Tokyo, 2 Mar. 2025
times listed are athletes' best in last 3 years except where noted

Women
Sutume Asefa Kebede (Ethiopia) - 2:15:55 (1st, Tokyo 2024)
Tigist Ketema (Ethiopia) - 2:16:07 (1st, Dubai 2024)
Rosemary Wanjiru (Kenya) - 2:16:14 (2nd, Tokyo 2024)
Hawi Feysa (Ethiopia) - 2:17:25 (1st, Frankfurt 2024)
Gotytom Gebreslase (Ethiopia) - 2:18:11 (1st, Oregon Worlds 2022)
Winfridaw Moraa Moseti (Kenya) - 2:18:25 (2nd, Hamburg 2024)
Magdalyne Masai (Kenya) - 2:18:58 (2nd, Frankfurt 2024)
Degitu Azimeraw (Ethiopia) - 2:19:52 (1st, Barcelona 2024)
Ai Hosoda (Japan/Edion) - 2:20:31 (5th, Berlin 2024)
Desi Jisa Mokonin (Bahrain) - 2:20:47 (2nd, Doha 2023)
Yuka Ando (Japan/Shimamura) - 2:21:18 (1st, Nagoya 2024)
Jessica Stenson (Australia) - 2:24:01 (4th, Daegu 2024)
Deshun Zhang (China) - 2:24:05 (4th, Nagoya 2023)
Rie Kawauchi (Japan/Otsuka Seiyaku) - 2:25:35 (7th, Osaka Women's 2022)
Kaori Morita (Japan/Panasonic) - 2:26:31 (8th, Tokyo 2023)
Khishigsaikhan Galbadrakh (Mongolia) - 2:26:32 (8th, Tokyo 2024)

Men
Benson Kipruto (Kenya) - 2:02:16 (1st, Tokyo 2024)
Deresa Geleta (Ethiopia) - 2:02:38 (2nd, Valencia 2024)
Vincent Kipkemoi Ngetich (Kenya) - 2:03:13 (2nd, Berlin 2023)
Tadese Takele (Ethiopia) - 2:03:24 (3rd, Berlin 2023)
Dawit Wolde (Ethiopia) - 2:03:48 (3rd, Valencia 2023)
Birhanu Legese (Ethiopia) - 2:04:44 (3rd, Amsterdam 2023)
Stephen Kissa (Uganda) - 2:04:48 (2nd, Hamburg 2022)
Tsegaye Getachew (Ethiopia) - 2:04:49 (1st, Amsterdam 2022)
Amedework Walelegn (Ethiopia) - 2:04:50 (2nd, Rotterdam 2024)
Titus Kipruto (Kenya) - 2:04:54 (2nd, Amsterdam 2022)
Leul Gebresilase (Ethiopia) - 2:04:56 (2nd, Rotterdam 2022)
Yohei Ikeda (Japan/Kao) - 2:05:12 (6th, Berlin 2024)
Mulugeta Asefa Uma (Ethiopia) - 2:05:33 (1st, Paris 2024)
Ichitaka Yamashita (Japan/Mitsubishi Juko) - 2:05:51 (7th, Tokyo 2023)
Kenya Sonota (Japan/JR Higashi Nihon) - 2:05:59 (8th, Tokyo 2023)
Jie He (China) - 2:06:57 (4th, Wuxi 2024)
Vincent Kibor Raimoi (Kenya/Suzuki) - 2:07:01 (2nd, Fukuoka Int'l 2022)
Hiroto Inoue (Japan/Mitsubishi Juko) - 2:07:09 (10th, Tokyo 2023)
Shaohui Yang (China) - 2:07:09 (2nd, Fukuoka Int'l 2023)
Hendrik Pfeiffer (Germany) - 2:07:14 (3rd, Houston 2024)
Koki Yoshioka (Japan/Kyudenko) - 2:07:28 (11th, Osaka 2023)
Gaku Hoshi (Japan/JR Higashi Nihon) - 2:07:31 (1st, Osaka 2022)
Akira Akasaki (Japan/Kyudenko) - 2:07:32 (6th, Paris Olympics 2024)
Shin Kimura (Japan/Honda) - 2:07:34 (14th, Tokyo 2024)
Suldan Hassan (Sweden) - 2:07:36 (9th, Sevilla 2024)
Tsubasa Ichiyama (Japan/Sunbelx) - 2:07:44 (3rd, Beppu-Oita 2023)
Tatsuya Maruyama (Japan/Toyota) - 2:07:50 (8th, Berlin 2022)
Yuhei Urano (Japan/Fujitsu) - 2:07:52 (3rd, Osaka 2022)
Xiangdong Wu (China) - 2:08:04 (10th, Osaka 2024)
Kiyoshi Koga (Japan/Yasukawa Denki) - 2:08:30 (4th, Beppu-Oita 2022)
Kenji Yamamoto (Japan/Mazda) - 2:08:33 (18th, Tokyo 2024)
Ryoma Takeuchi (Japan/ND Software) - 2:08:40 (3rd, Hofu 2023)
Naoki Aiba (Japan/Chudenko) - 2:08:44 (5th, Beppu-Oita 2022)
Yuichi Yasui (Japan/Toyota) - 2:08:48 (9th, Beppu-Oita 2023)
Rintaro Takeda (Japan/Yakult) - 2:08:48 (8th, Osaka 2022)
Ken Nakayama (Japan/Honda) - 2:08:52 (17th, Osaka 2024)
Takashi Ichida (Japan/Asahi Kasei) - 2:08:57 (10th, Chicago 2023)
Joshua Cheptegei (Uganda) - 2:08:59 (37th, Valencia 2023)
Shuho Dairokuno (Japan/Asahi Kasei) - 2:09:26 (32nd, Osaka 2023)
Hideyuki Tanaka (Japan/Toyota) - 2:09:27 (21st, Osaka 2024)
Takayuki Iida (Japan/Fujitsu) - 2:09:34 (5th, Prague 2023)
Yuma Morii (Japan/Kyoto T&F Assoc.) - 2:09:59 (8th, Boston 2024)

Debut
Geoffrey Toroitich (Kenya) - 59:13 (1st, Malaga Half 2023)
Ayumu Kobayashi (Japan/NTT Nishi Nihon) - 1:00:44 (10th, Nat'l Corp. Half 2022)
Aoi Ota (Japan/Aoyama Gakuin Univ.) - 1:02:30 (8th, Shanghai Half 2024)

Wheelchair Women
Catherine Debrunner (Switzerland) - 1:34:16 (1st, Berlin 2023)
Manuela Schar (Switzerland) - 1:36:43 (1st, Tokyo 2023)
Wakako Tsuchida (Japan/Willraise) - 1:37:59 (1st, Oita 2022)
Madison De Rozario (Australia) - 1:44:19 (4th, Tokyo 2024)
Tsubasa Nakamine (Japan/Misato SS) - 1:44:34 (7th, Tokyo 2024)
Susannah Scaroni (U.S.A.) - 1:48:05 (1st, New York 2024)
Zhou Zhaoqian (China) - 1:52:09 (5th, Paris Paralympics 2024)

Wheelchair Men
Tomoki Suzuki (Japan/Toyota) - 1:23:05 (1st, Tokyo 2024)
Luo Xingchuan (China) - 1:23:49 (2nd, Chengdu 2023)
Ryota Yoshida (Japan/SUS) - 1:26:49 (4th, Oita 2023)
Sho Watanabe (Japan/Toppan) - 1:31:03 (3rd, Tokyo 2024)
Kota Hokinoue (Japan/Line Yahoo) - 1:31:06 (5th, Tokyo 2024)
Byunghoon Yoo (South Korea) - 1:38:56 (12th, Oita 2024)

photos © 2025 Montri Boonyasat / Running Insider, all rights reserved
text © 2025 Brett Larner, all rights reserved

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Comments

Anonymous said…
I really hope the weather gives close to ideal conditions as a payback for the headwinds and snow that "ruined" the last 12 kms last week at Osaka.

This field could make it a very special Tokyo marathon.

I also agree with the article that Ikeda is likely to be the one breaking or being close to break the NR if he hasn't had injuries or setbacks after New Year's Ekiden.
I think Akasaki will run a new PB, I'd be surprised if he gets to low 2.05 or under it at this point but he surely has a strong mentality and I bet on him taking another step forward.

On one hand, while I love Ota's mad mentality of going with the 1st group (even Hara said it'd be a huge risk) I also think that being his debut the risk of destryoing himself and losing it after 25-30 km is too high and could ruin his first marathon. (Wouldn't be suprirsed if because of this he has the "worst" AGU member debut this year at a marathon)
If he wants to be bold, going with the 2nd group would still be amazing and less insane.
But who am I to tell him what to do? Bring it Ota and see what happens.

Whatever he does, will be a nice test to see how consistent he can be.
He's been absolutely stellar in his 4 Hakone runs but he always spent the entire year just training for those.
Now let'see how he runs at an event that his out of his peak period and that hasn't trained specifically for the entire season.

One other runner I'm particularly interested in seeing run is Ichitaka Yamashita.
Let's see if he can get back to his breakout form or the wall he faced is still there.

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