Skip to main content

Hakone Ekiden Qualifier Preview


Saturday is the official qualifying event for the 99th running of the world's greatest road race. Back on its regular course after two years as loop around a runway, the Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai half marathon has the 11th through 53rd-ranked men's university teams in the greater Tokyo area racing it out to be in the top 10 and score a place in Hakone in January. All 43 teams field from 10 to 12 runners with their first 10 finishers scoring and teams ranked on their scoring runners' total combined times. It's tense, dramatic, and every second from every runner really does count. Sometimes the difference between 10th and 11th in the team scoring comes down to a fraction of that per runner. NTV will be broadcasting it live starting at 9:25 a.m. local time Saturday.

It doesn't need to be said that proven half marathon ability is the best predictor of half marathon success, but given that teams can qualify runners via 10000 m best that's what organizers KGRR list in the entry lists. Going by those times, it looks like a pretty clear top 8 but almost dead even between 9th and 12th, with the 13th and 14th-place teams right behind them and 15th in range. A team missing the cut can come down to one runner having a bad day, so depth in 11th and 12th also counts in a team's chances.

Last year's winner Meiji University and Tokai University are evenly matched at the top of the rankings, and either could win. Still in a building phase under new coaching, Daito Bunka University looks unexpectedly strong in 3rd and has depth to match the 2 favorites. Yamanashi Gakuin University, Kanagawa University, Nittai University, Rikkyo University and Nihon University all look pretty safe to round out the top 8. If they succeed it will be Rikkyo's first time making Hakone in 55 years and a massive success for young head coach Yuichiro Ueno who has built the program up from zero in just his fourth season.

From there things get rough. Chuo Gakuin University, Waseda University, Josai University and Surugadai University are all evenly matched, CGU a step ahead on depth but Waseda and Josai even there too. It's especially interesting given that new Waseda head coach Katsuhiko Hanada and longtime Josai head coach Seiji Kushibe were Waseda teammates back in their own Hakone days.

Right behind are Kokushikan University, Takushoku University and Nihon Yakka University, and it would be totally possible for one of them to luck out with a combination of a good run and a bad day for one of the higher-ranked schools. If NYU made it it would be its first-ever Hakone, but while that might be a stretch it's definitely on the rise as a program and should factor in coming seasons if it can replace the 5 seniors it has on the roster this year.

In terms individual racing, five men have sub-28 bests for 10000 m, last year's winner Charles Kamau Wanjiku (Musashino Gakuin Univ.), 3rd-placer Noah Kiplimo (Nihon Yakku Univ.), 5th-placer Joseph Razini Lemeteki (Takushoku Univ.), Charles Ndungu (Nihon Univ.) and Ryuto Igawa (Waseda Univ.). Wanjiku, Kiplimo and Lemeteki have all broken 62 minutes for the half, but while they're the favorites for the overall top 3 that kind of time is still in range of good Japanese collegiate men. 

One unfortunate absence is Nittai's Tamaki Fujimoto, who broke the meet record in the Kanto Regionals half marathon in May. Fujimoto had an injury shortly after that race and his recovery has taken long enough that he's not on Nittai's roster here. They should still make it without him, and with any luck he'll be back in time for the main event in January.

© 2022 Brett Larner, all rights reserved

Buy Me A Coffee

Comments

Dave in Denver said…
Thanks for the breakdown. I was reading yahoo news breakdown yesterday and the main difference I noticed is they seem a lot higher on Waseda, mentioning them at the top with Meiji. Also a lot higher on CGU. Not sure if you have seen it but wondering if you can pinpoint why that might be. Excited for tomorrow!

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/f4c71e09b2705adf743ab9f5a1de33ceb5c400ae?page=1
Brett Larner said…
Due to time constraints I only took the listed 10000m bests into account, but they may be factoring in half marathon credentials which is what I would usually do (on the road in Amsterdam right now). CGU tends to perform above ability at the Yosenkai, so that's probably a big part of their ranking. It wouldn't surprise me to see CGU do better than I ranked them, but I'd be very surprised if Waseda were anywhere near that high. I think they're being a bit optimistic that Hanada is going to work some magic in such a short period since taking over at Waseda. Give him a couple of years and I'm sure they'll be back in the Hakone top 10.
Rigajags said…
Looking forward to the race and hopefully some first year will surprise us like Miura did 2 years ago at the Yosenkai.

Doubt it but will surely be interesting to watch it all unfold.

Bummer not having Fujimoto there, hope he recovers for Hakone.

Most-Read This Week

10000 m National Championships Preview

  Less than five months since the 2023 10000 m National Championships went down at the 2021 Olympic stadium in Tokyo, the 2024 edition happens Friday at Shizuoka's Ecopa Stadium, with NHK broadcasting it live starting at 19:25 local time. Doubling up on Nationals like this lets Japanese athletes double dip on placing points to try to get into the Paris Olympics on rankings. But between the number of people who've hit the 30:40.00 women's standard and 27:00.00 men's standard and the lopsided eight spots given away to top placers at World XC, there are only four women's spots and three men's available via rankings. Of those, three of the four women's spots and two of the three men's spots are currently occupied by top placers at December's 2023 Nationals, Ririka Hironaka , Haruka Kokai and Rino Goshima for women and Ren Tazawa and Tomoki Ota for men. The 2023 Nationals did get close to the standards, with Hironaka leading the top four women under

Goshima and Kasai Win 10000 m National Titles, Maeda Breaks U20 Asian Record

Rino Goshima and Jun Kasai stepped up with PBs to win the 2024 National Championships 10000 m titles Friday at Shizuoka's Ecopa Stadium. In the women's race, Goshima, 4th in last December's 2023 National Championships 10000 m, went out front from the start with Kenyan teammate Judy Jepngetich pacing and 2023 3rd-placer Haruka Kokai in tow. Things were never on track to hit the 30:40.00 Paris Olympics standard, but except for a brief dip to 3:08 at 7000 m Goshima held steady at 3:05 to 3:06/km even as Kokai and Jepngetich fell off. With blood dripping from her left knee after getting spiked by Jepngetich, Goshima closed in 3:03 to take 5 seconds off her best from December's Nationals and win in 30:53.31, moving up to all-time Japanese #6. Jepngetich also PBd at 31:09.42 without counting in the standings, with Kokai 2nd in 31:10.53 and Kazuna Kanetomo 3rd in a PB 31:59.29. The runner-up last time, Yuka Takashima was last in 33:33.27. The men's race went out in a

Golden Games in Nobeoka Top Results

  For everyone not running yesterday's 10000 m National Championships , where the Asahi Kasei corporate team dominated the men's race with four out of four men sub-28 including winner Jun Kasai , 27:17.46, the grand dame of Japan's long distance time trial circuit was happening on AK's home ground in Miyazaki at the Golden Games in Nobeoka . Not including kids' races, a total of 74 women and 227 men ran in 14 heats of 5000 m, with a packed-in crowd of fans lining the track beating on metal sponsor boards with batons. It's a pretty awesome meet, and memorable performances included: National champion Kamimura Gakuen H.S. standout Caroline Kariba continued to kill it in the second month of her corporate league career, winning the 5000 m A-heat in 15:00.95 in a race where 3 out of the top 4 including her ran PBs. National champion Meijo University seemed flat at this point in the season, with none of its people under 16 minutes and star Nanase Tanimoto leading