Saturday is the official qualifying event for the 99th running of the world's greatest road race. Back on its regular course after two years as loop around a runway, the Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai half marathon has the 11th through 53rd-ranked men's university teams in the greater Tokyo area racing it out to be in the top 10 and score a place in Hakone in January. All 43 teams field from 10 to 12 runners with their first 10 finishers scoring and teams ranked on their scoring runners' total combined times. It's tense, dramatic, and every second from every runner really does count. Sometimes the difference between 10th and 11th in the team scoring comes down to a fraction of that per runner. NTV will be broadcasting it live starting at 9:25 a.m. local time Saturday.
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It doesn't need to be said that proven half marathon ability is the best predictor of half marathon success, but given that teams can qualify runners via 10000 m best that's what organizers KGRR list in the entry lists. Going by those times, it looks like a pretty clear top 8 but almost dead even between 9th and 12th, with the 13th and 14th-place teams right behind them and 15th in range. A team missing the cut can come down to one runner having a bad day, so depth in 11th and 12th also counts in a team's chances.
Last year's winner Meiji University and Tokai University are evenly matched at the top of the rankings, and either could win. Still in a building phase under new coaching, Daito Bunka University looks unexpectedly strong in 3rd and has depth to match the 2 favorites. Yamanashi Gakuin University, Kanagawa University, Nittai University, Rikkyo University and Nihon University all look pretty safe to round out the top 8. If they succeed it will be Rikkyo's first time making Hakone in 55 years and a massive success for young head coach Yuichiro Ueno who has built the program up from zero in just his fourth season.
From there things get rough. Chuo Gakuin University, Waseda University, Josai University and Surugadai University are all evenly matched, CGU a step ahead on depth but Waseda and Josai even there too. It's especially interesting given that new Waseda head coach Katsuhiko Hanada and longtime Josai head coach Seiji Kushibe were Waseda teammates back in their own Hakone days.
Right behind are Kokushikan University, Takushoku University and Nihon Yakka University, and it would be totally possible for one of them to luck out with a combination of a good run and a bad day for one of the higher-ranked schools. If NYU made it it would be its first-ever Hakone, but while that might be a stretch it's definitely on the rise as a program and should factor in coming seasons if it can replace the 5 seniors it has on the roster this year.
In terms individual racing, five men have sub-28 bests for 10000 m, last year's winner Charles Kamau Wanjiku (Musashino Gakuin Univ.), 3rd-placer Noah Kiplimo (Nihon Yakku Univ.), 5th-placer Joseph Razini Lemeteki (Takushoku Univ.), Charles Ndungu (Nihon Univ.) and Ryuto Igawa (Waseda Univ.). Wanjiku, Kiplimo and Lemeteki have all broken 62 minutes for the half, but while they're the favorites for the overall top 3 that kind of time is still in range of good Japanese collegiate men.
One unfortunate absence is Nittai's Tamaki Fujimoto, who broke the meet record in the Kanto Regionals half marathon in May. Fujimoto had an injury shortly after that race and his recovery has taken long enough that he's not on Nittai's roster here. They should still make it without him, and with any luck he'll be back in time for the main event in January.
Comments
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/f4c71e09b2705adf743ab9f5a1de33ceb5c400ae?page=1
Doubt it but will surely be interesting to watch it all unfold.
Bummer not having Fujimoto there, hope he recovers for Hakone.