Ekiden season kicks off for real on Monday with the first of the Big Three university men's ekidens, the Izumo Ekiden in Shimane. Fuji TV will be broadcasting Izumo live starting at 12:30 p.m. local time, with pre-race and exchange zone shots streamed on Youtube. Follow @JRNLive for English coverage.
Last year was a great season, with three different schools winning the three big races, Tokyo Kokusai University taking Izumo in its debut there, Komazawa University winning November's National University Ekiden, and Aoyama Gakuin University getting back on top of the big one, January's Hakone Ekiden. All three are going to be heavy hitters on Monday, but at the same time it's one of the closest fields ever at Izumo. There's not much difference in level for the top eight teams, all of them having top six runner averages under 14 minutes for 5000 m and under 29 minutes for 10000 m. With the average level so close it could come down to the strongest star runner on the anchor stage, and there's a clear favorite there.
On paper Komazawa and Chuo University are the favorites, both averaging 21:00 for 7.5 km among their six fastest runners, almost 10 seconds better than the rest of the field. But Komazawa is down in strength from last year's team, which was only 5th, and is struggling with injuries. It has great range, from 1500 m U20 NR record holder Keita Sato in his college ekiden debut to 27:23.44 10000 m runner Ren Tazawa to 1:00:40 half marathoner Chikara Yamano, but a lot depends on whether people like Mebuki Suzuki are at 100%. Likewise for Chuo, whose Hakone 1st Stage record-break Yamato Yoshii ran only 14:19.19 for 5000 m last week.
The question marks there will probably bring Komazawa and Chuo down to the level of the next five teams, AGU, Juntendo University, TKU, Soka University and 2019 Izumo winner Koku Gakuin University. All of those range from 21:08 to 21:13 top six averages for 7.5 km, meaning on a good day any of them could win. Last year's runner-up AGU is fielding a much stronger team this year, and with a proven record of success at the big ekidens has to be seen as the favorite. Juntendo is led by 3000 mSC NR holder Ryuji Miura and has the best half marathon average in the field, 1:02:10. It's very slightly up in ability from last year, when it was a disappointing 10th.
Defending champ TKU is also significantly up in strength from last year, when it took the lead even before anchor Vincent Yegon got the tasuki. If Yegon is anywhere near the front at the start of the 10.2 km anchor stage and in the same kind of shape as last year there aren't many people on the entry list who could stop him from making it a TKU repeat.
Soka, 2nd at Hakone in 2021, and KGU have runners who could pull that off if Yegon isn't at his best. Soka has 2022 national university 10000 m champ Philip Mulwa set to go, and KGU has Ayumu Yamamoto, whose 1:00:43 half marathon best is technically 35 seconds better than Yegon's. It'll take perfect team runs to get them into position if they're given the anchor stage, but with their overall high team levels that could happen. As a team Soka is way up from last year, its top six average going from 21:28 to 21:11, while KGU has slipped a bit from 21:11 to 21:13.
Toyo University is a little behind the top seven but much stronger than last year, and as one of the teams like AGU that almost always performs at the big ekidens it has to be counted at the same level as the rest of the top group of schools. Like Komazawa it's missing at least one of its big guns, 1:00:43 half marathoner Kazuki Matsuyama, and a lot will depend on whether former high school 5000 m NR holder Kosuke Ishida, now a 2nd-year, is back up to potential after struggling through his first college season.
9th-ranked Hosei University also has sub-14 and sub-29 top six averages, but isn't quite where the top eight are. 10th-ranked Teikyo University lost most of last year's 8th-place team to graduation and is in a rebuilding phase, only making it to Izumo thanks to last year's seniors scoring a top-ten finish at Hakone.
It's a rarity to see any team from outside the Tokyo-area Kanto Region beat even one of the ten Kanto programs, but Teikyo might actually be vulnerable to last-year's 13th-placer Kwansei Gakuin University or 11th-placer Ritsumeikan University. Ritsumeikan is weaker than last year, but Kwansei Gakuin has forward momentum this season and could surprise if Teikyo has problems.
Again this year, the Ivy League Select Team is absent, its last appearance coming pre-pandemic. The team was almost never competitive but added some international flair to the event, especially with the disappearance of the International Chiba Ekiden and Yokohama International Women's Ekiden. Let's hope they're back next year and beyond.
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