Ekiden season rolls on Sunday with the second stop on the Big Three university men's ekiden tour, the National University Men's Ekiden Championships. TV Asahi will broadcast all the action live from 7:45 to 13:40 local time, with English coverage on @JRNLive.
Last year Aoyama Gakuin University ran down favorite Tokai University on the second to last stage to score the win. AGU is down on strength this year, while Tokai is stronger than ever. It should be far ahead of every other team in the field, but at the season-opening Izumo Ekiden Tokai showed the same kind of vulnerability that lost it the national title last year. #2-ranked Komazawa University should be there ready to take over the moment Tokai falters. Tokai and Komazawa are the only two schools in the field with eight-man PB averages under 14 minutes for 5000 m, sub-29 for 10000 m, and under 63 minutes for the half marathon.
Behind the two favorites there's a gap back to 3rd. At Izumo the shorter stage lengths and smaller number of runners involved, six stages averaging 7.5 km, made it possible for other teams to bridge that gap. But at Nationals, eight stages averaging just over 13 km, it's a taller order that requires depth of quality. Teikyo Univesity is ranked #3 on paper, but with several of its top people coming back from injury after missing Izumo, where it faded late to finish only 7th, at best it'll be racing surprise Izumo winner Koku Gakuin University, last year's 3rd-placer Toyo University, and AGU for a spot in the top six. KGU, Toyo and AGU are almost too close to call, but despite KGU's momentum it'll have a hard time outdoing the always-strong Toyo to make the top three given the higher hurdles at Nationals.
#7-ranked Juntendo University is just a step behind the four schools ahead of it and could break into the top six on a perfect day, but like Teikyo it's got a few key people coming back from injury and may find itself racing Chuo Gakuin University for the penultimate spot on the eight-deep podium. Behind CGU there's a pretty big gap back to 9th-ranked Waseda University, making it unlikely that we'll see too many big surprises on the podium. Ranked 13th, Tokyo Kokusai University is an interesting addition to the field after winning last weekend's Hakone Ekiden qualifier, but with only a week to recover it'll have a hard time beating its ranking.
Schools in the Kanto Region focus primarily on the half marathon distance, the average stage length at January's prestigious Hakone Ekiden. Those in other parts of the country don't do the same kind of distance, making it almost impossible for them to compete once the stage lengths get over 10 km. With fifteen Kanto programs in the Nationals field you almost never see a team from another part of the country break into the top fifteen. Ritsumeikan University repped the rest of Japan in style at Izumo, taking 6th with two excellent last stages, but while its two star seniors Takato Imai and Yuki Takahata are good enough across the three main distances to have been welcome at just about any Kanto program, overall Ritsumeikan doesn't have the credentials over the longer distances. It's ranked 16th, and going even one spot higher would be a brilliant day for it.
© 2019 Brett Larner, all rights reserved
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