100th Hakone Ekiden Preview

The New Year Ekiden corporate men's national championships are coming up in just over 24 hours, but there's a limit to how much you can do and we want to focus what energy's left on the Hakone Ekiden's 100th running on Jan. 2 and 3. A quick preview of the Jan. 1 New Year Ekiden is here, and if you've got a VPN you'll be able to watch streaming of TBS' broadcast here. If you're still on Twitter follow our live coverage on @JRNLive and @tri_chaser. Good luck to Honda in its shot at a third-straight win, and to everyone else running there.

Nippon TV is broadcasting both days of the Hakone Ekiden, with a pre-race show at 7:00 a.m. and the start at 8:00 a.m. each day. Use a VPN to watch streaming of Day One here, and of Day Two here. We'll be covering the race on @JRNLive and on-site from the Day One finish and Day Two start at Lake Ashi.

The story at this year's Hakone Ekiden: Can Komazawa University become the first school to win all three major university ekidens two years in a row? Given Hakone's popularity, with a recent Yomiuri Newspaper poll reporting 71% of respondents saying they plan to watch the race this time, it would be an achievement something like the Chicago Bulls' 1998 NBA title.

Last year head coach Hiroaki Oyagi, an icon of the sport, led Komazawa to its first triple crown before announcing he was stepping back to an advisory role to let former marathon NR holder Atsushi Fujita take the reins for the season leading to the 100th. In October under Fujita's leadership they broke the Izumo Ekiden CR to defend that title. In November Komazawa won the National University Ekiden for the 4th year in a row, then had a raft of second-tier team members break 63 minutes at the Ageo City Half Marathon, then its top three all break 27:40 for 10000 m in Hachioji. Three teams in the 100th Hakone Ekiden field have 10-man 5000 m averages under 13:45, three have a 10000 m average under 28:30, and two have a half marathon average under 1:02:30. Komazawa has all three. Who could stop them? Nobody, really.

Team entry lists have been out for a few weeks, and you can read JRN's analysis here. Stage entries just came out, so let's take a look at Komazawa's strategy and what other teams might do to try to neutralize it. Anyone listed for a specific stage has to run that stage, or be replaced by one of the alternates. Alternates can be swapped in on race morning, so there's a lot of strategizing involved in holding a few cards back to see what other coaches are doing before laying the final lineup on the table.

Komazawa leads off with Tetta Shiratori, 13:41.39/28:14.86/1:02:14, then follows with Mebuki Suzuki, 13:24.55/27:30.69/1:03:07, then 1500 m, 3000 m, 5000 m and 10000 m U20 NR holder Keita Sato, 13:22.91/27:28.50. That's pretty believable, except for fastest-ever JPN-born collegiate half marathoner Kotaro Shinohara, 13:34.28/27:38.66/1:00:11, being on the alternate list. Shiratori is good enough to handle the First Stage, but since he didn't run either Izumo or Nationals it seems pretty likely he'll be swapped out for Shinohara on race morning. That sets up a 1-2-3 that no other team could match. Listed for the Fourth Stage, Shoya Koyama, 13:53.25/1:02:59, is a realistic choice, but 5th man Ibuki Kaneko is sure to be replaced by 1:01:36 half marathoner Takuma Yamakawa who ran the 8th-fastest time ever on the tough uphill Fifth Stage last year.

Last year's downhill Sixth Stage winner Aoi Ito is listed as an alternate, so you can expect him to replace Yudai Kiyama the morning of the 3rd. Listed 7th and 8th runners Yushin Akatsu and Yuto Akahoshi both ran great at Nationals and are sure to make the start list. 9th man Kyosuke Hanao has sub-28:30 and sub-1:02 times to his name, but coming off injuries that kept him out of Izumo and Nationals it's mostly a question of whether he's ready. He and listed anchor Mahiro Yoshimoto could be replaced by any of the other three alternates, sub-1:02:30 half marathoners Taiyo Yasuhara and Shunki Niwase, and sub-29 runner Haato Komaki.

In terms of the overall strategy, a lot hinges on whether Shiratori or Shinohara is on the First Stage. If Shiratori, other teams are likely to be close through the First and Second Stages, leaving it to Sato on Third to break the race open. If Shinohara, Komazawa should have a lead from the start, Suzuki will try to hold it on Second, and Sato extend it or make up the slack if anyone catches Suzuki. But in either scenario, unless Yamakawa can't repeat on the uphill Komazawa would end Day One with a lead. Its Day Two lineup is stronger than most other teams' Day One crews, so if Komazawa is leading they'll hold it. If it's close, they'll open it. If they're behind, they have the skills to catch up.

But, you never really know. These aren't pros, and things happen. All it takes is something happening to one runner and the whole team falls. The biggest wildcard on Komazawa's lineup is Sato. He didn't run Hakone his first year last year, so this will be his debut at a distance longer than 11.1 km. At Nationals and Hachioji he looked like he could run a sub-60 half marathon the first time out the gate if he wanted to, but there's plenty of precedent for top talent not handling the transition at Hakone and you never really know until they do it.

Last year's 2nd, 3rd and 4th-placers Chuo University, Aoyama Gakuin University and Koku Gakuin University are positioned to be racing for 2nd again, or to pick up the pieces if Komazawa blows up. Koku Gakuin is closest to Komazawa over the half marathon with a 10-man average of 1:02:11 to Komazawa's 1:02:07, Aoyama Gakuin closest over 10000 m at 28:24.62 to Komazawa's 28:21.16, and Chuo over 5000 m at 13:41.49 to Komazawa's 13:39.11.

Chuo is repeating its runner-up 2023 lineup on the first three stages, with Itta Tameike on First, and Second and Third Stage winners Yamato Yoshii and Shota Nakano returning. It's clearly banking on trying to stay with Komazawa up to that point to set up the later runners to pull an upset. The most notable thing is that head coach Masakazu Fujiwara has opted to put Haruki Abe, who beat Yamakawa for 3rd on the uphill Fifth Stage last year, on the Eighth Stage this time around. Uphill specialists are hard to come by, so taking someone who's proven themself off for a minor stage means either Abe is not at 100% or Fujiwara has found someone better. If the latter scenario, Chuo could pull off the Day One win.

Aoyama Gakuin was 2nd at Nationals, and while its listed Day One lineup is good, all sub-29 10000 m runners and three of them sub-28:30, there are a couple of obvious race morning swaps waiting to happen, with Nationals team members Asahi Kuroda, Aoi Ota and Kento Yamauchi listed as alternates. Head coach Susumu Hara has put three solid people on the Eighth through Tenth Stages, 1:02:33 half marathoner Yuto Tanaka, 28:19.31 10000 m man Genta Kuramoto and 28:43.70 runner Shunya Udagawa on anchor, so it looks like he may be setting up to try to run Komazawa down late in the race.

Coached by Komazawa grad Yasuhiro Maeda, Koku Gakuin is playing its cards very close to its chest, with five of its six best half marathoners listed as alternates. The only listed athlete who's sure to run the stage they're down for is 2nd runner Kiyoto Hirabayashi, 13:55.30/27:55.15/1:01:50. Listed mountain stage runners Ryuto Uehara and Kosei Atomura are too good to swap out and seem likely to run there, but beyond that we'll see. The most likely places for the alternates to go would be First, Third, Fourth and Seventh, leaving one wildcard.

The winner of October's Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai qualifier half marathon, Daito Bunka University is in a good place and looks positioned to compete for 5th. Toyo University, Soka University and Waseda University are all close to the same level as Daito Bunka and should be racing it for 5th. Despite weak runs at Nationals, Toyo and Soka both have the experience and potential to go higher if any of the big four falters.

Top ten at Hakone matters a lot because it earns a team a guaranteed return trip the next year and an invitation to Izumo. A big part of what makes NTV's broadcast what it is is its dedicated coverage of the race for 10th, and a lot of the time it's the most exciting part of Day Two. Four teams, Meiji University, Josai University, Tokai University and Teikyo University, are in solid contention for 9th and 10th, each with different strengths and weaknesses that could see any of them make it, or fail. Josai and Teikyo have the best chance of succeeding, but again, you never really know.

The next group of five, Kanagawa University, Juntendo University, Chuo Gakuin University, Hosei University and Nittai University, could all pull off a top ten finish on a perfect day, or they could be fighting to stay ahead ahead of the white sash start cutoffs on the Day Two stages if they fall too far behind Komazawa or whoever else is leading at that point. Hosei made top ten last year off a great Day Two, and while their team isn't as strong this year they could be the major threat out of this group.

The last group of six, Rikkyo University, Yamanashi Gakuin University, Nihon University, Kokushikan University, Tokyo Nogyo University and Surugadai University, are ultimately just in it for participation, but keep in mind that they're still among the very best in Japan. Interestingly, four of the seven teams in the field with Kenyan members fall into this group. Tokyo Nogyo's Kazuma Maeda's debut will probably be the most highly-anticipated among the 1st-years at this year's Hakone.

The biggest achievement likely for any of the bottom six would be making it through without getting white sashed. If a team falls too far behind the leader, the outgoing runner at an exchange has to start with a new tasuki before the incoming runner arrives, and the difference in time is added to the team's final finish time. The main upshot of that is that the original tasuki doesn't make the complete journey, breaking the physical and symbolic continuity of the team, its work to get to that point, and its connection to the past and future. With Komazawa looking poised to make history, every team near the back end of the field will be giving everything to maintain its link with its own.

© 2023 Brett Larner, all rights reserved