This ekiden season is all about the lead-up to the 100th running of the legendary Hakone Ekiden in January. But a big part of making this year what it is is Komazawa University trying to cap the centenary by accomplishing something no team has ever done. Last year Komazawa became one of only five teams in history to pull off the triple crown, winning October’s Izumo Ekiden, November’s National University Ekiden, and Hakone in the same season. This year they’re trying to go one better and achieve the first double triple crown.
At the Izumo Ekiden a month ago Komazawa kicked off its campaign with a definitive win, breaking its own overall course record from last season by 41 seconds and winning by double the margin it did that time, all despite the loss of star senior Ren Tazawa to graduation. Sunday they look to ride that momentum to a fourth-straight win at the National University Ekiden, 106.8 km from Nagoya to Ise in eight stages.
TV Asahi will broadcast the race live starting at 7:45 a.m. Sunday local time. TVer has the official streaming if you’ve got a VPN, and mov3.co is an alternative option if you haven’t. JRN will be on-site and will cover the race on @JRNLive.
And it’s really Komazawa's race to lose. It is the most well-rounded team in the field, with the 2nd-best 8-man 5000 m average, 4th-best 10000 m average, and the best half marathon average, and the only team with multiple runners under 13:30, under 28:00 and under 1:02:00. The first 6 legs at Nationals are between 9.5 km and 12.8 km, with the last 2 closer to the half marathon at 17.6 km and 19.7 km to bring the average stage length to 13.35 km.
That means that 10000 m and half marathon credentials are key. Komazawa is at the top of the heap for those distances, and that’s with its star 2nd-year, 1500m, 3000m and 5000m U20 NR holder Keita Sato, having never run either. Last year Sato broke the CR on the 11.1 km Second Stage in his first-ever race at a double-digit distance, so factor him in and Komazawa has what looks like an advantage that could only be beaten if one of its athletes runs into trouble.
You might say that having the win an almost foregone conclusion takes away the excitement, but think of it this way. If Komazawa doesn’t win here, Hakone will be Hakone squared in its 100th edition. If Komazawa does win Nationals and goes to Hakone one step away from the double triple, it’s going to be Hakone cubed, something really once in a lifetime. It's a prelude, the second part of a trilogy setting up for the grand finale in part three.
Who could stop them? The top 4-ranked teams, including Komazawa, are all better than Komazawa was last year. Koku Gakuin University, coached by Komazawa grad Yasuhiro Maeda, was 2nd last year but 3:25 behind. Not counting Sato’s contribution to Komazawa’s numbers, which would be worth 1:30 to 2 minutes over 10000 m relative to #8 man Reiji Uesaka, KGU is almost even with Komazawa on paper, 1.5 seconds faster over 10000 m and 1 second slower over the half marathon, although Komazawa has a big 15-second advantage over 5000 m. But at Izumo, where the average stage length is about 7.5 km, KGU was 4th, over 3 minutes behind Komazawa.
3rd last year and 5th at Izumo, perpetual rival Aoyama Gakuin University is ranked #3 with the best 5000 m average, 2nd-best 10000 m average and 3rd-best half marathon average in the field. AGU isn’t as unbeatable as it was a few years ago, but with only one Nationals finish outside the top 3 in the last 8 years you can’t count it out, especially if Komazawa has any problems.
#4-ranked Chuo University is right up there in quality too with the 3rd-best 5000 m average, fastest 10000 m average, and 5th-best half marathon average. But it’s highly reliant on senior Yamato Yoshii, who missed Izumo after getting injured at the World Road Running Championships the week before the ekiden. In his absence Chuo was only 7th at Izumo, the same as its Nationals placing last year, and the main question on its chances is whether he’s back and anywhere near the full fitness of Chuo’s runner-up finish at Hakone last time.
But the next two tiers down from the top 4 are interesting. #5-ranked Soka University is a program on the way up and has come on big twice in the last few years, finishing 2nd to Komazawa at Hakone in 2021 and 2nd at Izumo last month. It has the 10000 m credentials to compete with the top 4, and with the momentum from Izumo it should be a top 3 threat. #6-ranked Juntendo University and #8 Tokai University, 4th and 10th last year and both performing poorly last month, are on the way down, but #7-ranked Daito Bunka University and #9-ranked Josai University could outperform their rankings, DBU having won last month’s Hakone Ekiden qualifier and Josai a surprise 3rd at Izumo, its best-ever ekiden performance.
#10-ranked Waseda University is in a development phase under new head coach Katsuhiko Hanada but did better than expected at the Hakone qualifier and could get into the top 8 after finishing 6th last year. #11-ranked Toyo University is a stretch for 8th but has a history of coming through when it counts, including an 8th at Izumo. Tokyo Kokusai University is only ranked 13th, but with the sting still fresh from missing an almost guaranteed appearance at Hakone after 5000 m and 10000 m collegiate record holder Richard Etir fell at the qualifier, they’ll be motivated more than anyone except Komazawa. Etir is sitting this one out, replaced by TKU's other Kenyan Amos Bett.
The Nationals field of 27 teams has 15 from the Tokyo-area Kanto Region, and it’s a rarity that a team from anywhere else in the country can beat even one of them. Last year the National University Select Team, made up half of runners from Kanto, beat Nihon University for 15th. This year the Select Team is ranked 16th but has stronger averages for all 3 distances than last time. #14-ranked Tokyo Nogyo University and #15-ranked Kokushikan University could be in range, but it would take a miracle or a disaster for any top non-Kanto teams like Kwansei Gakuin University, Ritsumeikan University or Kansai University to pull off the same.
© 2023 Brett Larner, all rights reserved
Comments
Vpn is ready and so am i.
The result will likely tell us if we should kindly ask Komazawa to start 1kilometer behind other teams at Hakone or if Chuo, AGU or anyone steps up closer this time.
Even with Yoshii (Yamato) back Chuo has to improve as other runners underperformed at Izumo based on expectations.
Will be Miura final Nationals appearance and he is listed in section 2 against Sato. Doubt Miura is anywhere near the training needed for ekidens but hopefully a good battle unfolds though with struggling Ishii in 1st section Juntendo will likely be 45/60 seconda behind already.
Soka is always fun to Watch, very curious to see if AGU starts trending the right way.
Just here's hoping to see somewhat of a close battle through at least 2/3 sections.