The Hakone Ekiden is almost here. The 99th running of Japan’s biggest sporting event happens Jan. 2-3, 21 collegiate relay teams of ten men running around a half marathon distance each from downtown Tokyo to Lake Ashi in the mountains near Mt. Fuji and back. All of it and more is broadcast live domestically starting at 7:00 a.m. by Nihon TV to tens of millions of fans and streamed on their Hakone site starting at 7:50, with domestic streaming of both Day One and Day Two also on TVer. There’s no official international streaming, but get yourself a VPN or subscribe to one of the online services that makes it possible to watch Japanese TV and you’re in. JRN will cover the entire race both days again this year on @JRNLive, so buy us a coffee and help make it possible.
With course record wins at the season’s first two major ekidens, Izumo and Nationals, Komazawa University is the heavy favorite. The triple crown of major university ekiden wins is just about the only thing head coach Hiroaki Oyagi hasn’t accomplished in his career, and it’s looking like the only thing that can stop his team this year is themselves. Komazawa has the fastest 10-man average PBs in the field for 5000 m, 10000 m and half marathon. The 10th-fastest half marathoner on the Komazawa entry roster, 2nd-year Mahiro Yoshimoto, has a best of 1:03:31.
But that doesn’t include 4th-year Ren Tazawa, Komazawa’s fastest on the track with bests of 13:22.60 and 27:23.44 but who hasn’t run a half yet, 13:22.91 U20 5000 m NR holder Keita Sato, who broke the course records on his stages at both Izumo and Nationals, or darkhorse 1st year Takuma Yamakawa, who won his stage at Nationals without any track credentials to his name. Count them in and the 10th man becomes 3rd-year Hibiki Aogaki, 28:20.42 and 1:02:44. That cuts out 13:27.83/27:41.68 man Mebuki Suzuki, so put him back in and the weakest link on Komazawa’s team becomes 1:02:25 half marathoner Taiyo Yasuhara. He’s fast enough to be the best runner on eight of the other teams. You get the picture.
As always, 2021 Hakone winner Komazawa’s toughest competition is 2022 winner Aoyama Gakuin University. AGU doesn’t have the same kind of individual star power as Komazawa or some of the other top programs, but it’s the only team in the field to have at least ten athletes on its entry roster with sub-14 bests for 5000 m, ten sub-29 for 10000 m, and ten sub-64 for the half. Development of that kind of high average level is what has given head coach Susumu Hara six Hakone titles in the last eight years, the well-rounded depth letting it pick up the pieces when a star runner from another team isn’t at 100%. AGU set the overall course record in 2022, and it won’t be easy for Komazawa to break it. If they do, they’ll be only the 2nd team in history to score the triple crown with all new CR.
Coached by Komazawa grad and Oyagi disciple Yasuhiro Maeda, Koku Gakuin University is ranked #3 but comes to Hakone with upward momentum, finishing 2nd at both Izumo and Nationals and holding the best 10-man half marathon average in the field after Komazawa’s. It’d be a major upset for Maeda to take down his former coach and stop him from finally achieving the triple crown, but maybe even more than AGU, KGU should be there to take over if Komazawa stumbles.
It’s hard to see anyone other than those three teams being in contention for the win. #2-ranked Juntendo University and #5-ranked Chuo University are strong, Juntendo with top 5 finishes at Izumo and Nationals and Chuo with top 7 at each, but although Juntendo managed to run down Komazawa for 2nd at Hakone last time around it would be a surprise to see either make top 3. #7-ranked Soka University made top 6 at both Izumo and Nationals, and with a 2nd-place finish at Hakone 2021 showed that it has what it takes to be a player. Along with the top 3, Juntendo, Chuo and Soka are all sure to make the 10-deep podium and score a priceless guaranteed trip to the 100th Hakone in 2024.
That leaves four places. Nine programs have a legit shot at taking one of them. Meiji University is ranked #6 by the numbers but has a long history of not performing up to potential, not qualifying for Izumo, only 2nd at October's Yosenkai qualifier half marathon and 9th at Nationals. 18th at Hakone last year and 7th at the Yosenkai, Yamanashi Gakuin University has the numbers to be in range of top 10, especially given 4th-year Boniface Mulwa's CR win at November's Ageo City Half Marathon. 2019 Hakone champ Tokai University has had a rocky year, 9th at the Yosenkai and 10th at Nationals, but has the material to do better. Last year's 10th-place Hosei University and 4th-place Toyo University are equal with YGU and Tokai on paper, Hosei taking 7th at Izumo and Toyo moving from 9th at Izumo to 7th at Nationals. Hosei has an enigmatic entry for the uphill 5th Fifth Stage, 31:54.92 2nd-year Issa Takahashi, while Toyo's biggest news is the absence of sub-61 half marathoner Kazuki Matsuyama.
Teikyo University, Josai University and Waseda University are one tier down from the group above but still in range of breaking into the top 10. 9th last year, Teikyo is one of only six teams and the only one ranked outside the top 10 to have ten men under 64 minutes in the half marathon. 3rd at the Yosenkai without making either Izumo or Nationals, Josai's roster got a boost this year from the recruitment of 1st-year Victor Kimutai, already 13:31.18/28:35.74/1:02:21 in his debut season. Dropping out of the elite top 10 with a 13th-place finish at Hakone last year, old school power Waseda was 4th at the Yosenkai under new head coach Katsuhiko Hanada, then doubled back with an impressive 6th-place finish at Nationals. #15-ranked Daito Bunka University took a surprise win at the Yosenkai but has had a rough season since then, with a 14th-place finish at Nationals behind five teams they had beaten at the Yosenkai and its entire team a DNS at Ageo.
Of the six teams at the bottom tier, #16-ranked Nittai University and #21-ranked Tokyo Kokusai University are the most notable. Both have good track averages but are held back by a lack of half marathon development that makes it hard to see either cracking the top 10. TKU is especially hurt by the likely absence of two-time Hakone CR breaker Vincent Yegon, replaced this season by the slower Luka Musembi. Entered to run the Fourth Stage, Musembi is the only Kenyan not currently slated to run the ultra-competitve 23.1 km Second Stage where Yegon holds the 1:05:49 CR.
The #17-ranked Kanto Region Student Alliance is a select team made up of top-placing individuals at the Yosenkai from schools that didn't make it as a team. Its half marathon strength is at the same level as Yosenkai winer DBU, but with the kind of real team unity that regular programs build the Alliance team rarely performs up to potential.
#18-ranked Rikkyo University is one of the big surprises this time. Rikkyo hadn't made Hakone since 1968, and it hired current head coach Yuichiro Ueno and poured serious money into its program with the goal of making a return at next year's 100th running. In just his 4th season Ueno exceeded all expectations by getting Rikkyo there a year early. It's not likely they'll be able to really go big this time, but with a lot of forward momentum this year Rikkyo could shape up to be a top 10 contender in the very near future.
Last year's 15th and 20th-place teams Kokushikan University and Senshu University round out the field. Kokushikan just barely squeezed into the Hakone field with a 10th-place finish at the Yosenkai 3 seconds ahead of the next team, while Senshu turned in a quality run there only 1 second behind YGU for 8th.
And with that, we'll see you early on Jan. 2 for what should be one of the best editions of the world's biggest road race. Happy new year.
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