2021 Hakone Ekiden Preview

As I'm writing this we're waiting to see if this is the day Tokyo goes over 1000 new cases a day for the first time. Against that backdrop, assuming it still happens the biggest race of the year is set to go down Jan. 2 and 3 in Tokyo and Kanagawa, the 97th running of the Hakone Ekiden.

NTV will be broadcasting the race live starting at 7:00 a.m. local time both days. It's the best broadcast of any sporting event in the world, and as you'd expect it doesn't look like there's any official live stream outside Japan. If you're not in Japan options like mov3.co, iTVer, and TVJapanLive might work. Unofficial streams tend to pop up on Youtube once the race gets underway. We'll be doing English commentary on @JRNLive as usual, and will tweet Youtube links if streams turn up. If you're new to ekidens or Hakone, here's an oldie I wrote in 2012 that explains the basics, especially the white sash starts that factor heavily into understanding Day Two.

Everything else aside, it's been a different year for Hakone-bound university men's programs with the cancelation of key tuneup races like the Ageo City Half Marathon, Setagaya 246 Half Marathon and Fuchu Tamagawa Half Marathon, and a lot more emphasis on the track. With Hakone's ten stages averaging about a half marathon apiece that makes it harder than usual to get a handle on where teams stand in the hierarchy, especially as the bottom half of the field actually does have fresh half marathon results to show from October's Yosenkai qualifier while the top half, which secured its places in Hakone 2021 at last year's race, doesn't.

As a result you've got on the one hand solid teams from the Yosenkai qualifier like Chuo University and Juntendo University, whose star first-year Ryuji Miura broke Suguru Osako's half marathon junior national record with a 1:01:41 at the qualifier and whose tenth man there ran 1:02:40, and on the other seeded teams like Komazawa University, Meiji University, Waseda University and Toyo University that have top ten 5000 m and 10000 m averages under 14 minutes and 29 minutes without half marathon marks to match.

We've ranked all 21 teams based on the averages of their top ten best over all three distances, but it's almost definite that teams like Waseda, Toyo and 2019 winner Tokai University will do better than it looks below. Before getting into a lot of detail, a simpler way of looking at the tiers in the field might be what they have in terms of top ten averages under 14 minutes, 29 minutes and/or 63 minutes.

13, 28 and 62: Chuo, Aoyama Gakuin

28 and 62: Juntendo, Student Alliance

13 and 28: Komazawa, Meiji, Waseda, Toyo

62: Josai

28: Nittai, Koku Gakuin

13: Tokai, Soka

other: Kanagawa, Teikyo, Kokushikan, Yamanashi Gakuin, Takushoku, Hosei, Senshu, Tokyo Kokusai

The top eight look pretty reasonable there, although not necessarily in that order, but beyond that it gets iffy. But how about those stats? Out of a field of 21 teams five with ten-man half marathon averages under 63 minutes even without many races this year, ten teams averaging under 29 for 10000 m, and eight under 14 for 5000 m. Nine teams have at least one half marathoner under 62 minutes, all but one have someone under 63 minutes, seven have at least one under 28 minutes and all but one have a runner under 29 minutes for 10000 m, and two teams have someone under 13:30 for 5000 m with eighteen teams having someone under 14 minutes. Amazing.

Let's take a quick look in more detail based on the calculated rankings. Click any of these to enlarge.

The top tier is clearly Yosenkai 2nd placer Chuo University, Yosenkai winner Juntendo University, and defending Hakone champ Aoyama Gakuin University. Chuo and Juntendo are a cut above on paper, but at November's National University Ekiden AGU beat Juntendo by over two minutes and Chuo didn't even make it to the starting line. There's no question that AGU head coach Susumu Hara has it down when it comes to making sure everything is together for the main event, and that's enough to make them the favorite. The question here is whether Chuo and Juntendo can keep it together too.

Komazawa University won the National University Ekiden and has the best 5000 m and 10000 m averages in the field thanks in part to star 2nd-year Ren Tazawa, but it doesn't have the proven half marathon credentials to be a sure thing against Chuo, Juntendo and AGU. No surprise that head coach Hiroaki Oyagi has set a top 3 finish as the team's goal, not the win. Which isn't to say they can't pull it off. The Kanto Region Student Alliance team made up of top-placing individuals at the Yosenkai whose schools didn't qualify doesn't factor into team scoring, but on paper it's one of the best in the field. Top 5 looks possible, but without the same kind of strong, unified team mentality as single-university teams it has rarely performed up to potential. 6th at the Yosenkai and 12th at Nationals, Nittai University has good enough 10000 m and half marathon credentials to look like a reliable pick for the 10-deep podium.

Josai University was 3rd at the Yosenkai and is one of the few teams in the field with a top ten half marathon average under 63 minutes, but at Nationals it was a disaster and finished 16th, last among the schools that will line up at Hakone. Like Komazawa Meiji University has superior 5000 m and 10000 m credentials without a half marathon to match, but its performance at Nationals, where it beat AGU for 3rd, shows it has the potential to be near the front at Hakone. 

Kanagawa University, 4th at the Yosenkai qualifier, and Teikyo University, 7th at Nationals, are two of the most well-rounded programs that don't have fast average times, and their overall strength is enough to put them solidly into contention for the top 10. 5th at the Yosenkai, Kokushikan University is a little weaker over 5000 m but is just as strong as Kanagawa over the half and falls into the same category. Koku Gakuin University is down on strength this year due to losses to graduation and finished off the podium behind Teikyo at Nationals. It'll need serious progress since then to make the top 10.

Yamanashi Gakuin University, 7th at the Yosenkai and 13th at Nationals, and Takushoku University, 9th at the Yosenkai, are heavily reliant on Kenyans Paul Onyiego and Joseph Razini and don't have the kind of depth that makes them reliable Hakone picks. 8th at the Yosenkai, Hosei University will be a mid-packer that could find itself in the race for 10th late on Day Two if everything goes well.

Tokai University, Waseda University and Toyo University are really where things get tricky. 2019 Hakone winner Tokai was 2nd at Nationals after a rocky start, but it comes in low in the rankings here with surprisingly weak 10000 m and half marathon averages. It'll almost definitely run more like at Nationals, but how much more? Waseda and Toyo both have sub-14 and sub-29 averages and were hurt in the rankings by the cancelation of Ageo, always one of the key races on their fall calendars. They took 5th and 6th at Nationals, both finishing within 33 seconds of AGU, and with some decent results at 20 km and half marathon-distance time trials this fall they should be inside the top 10.

Making a return to Hakone after a long absence thanks to a 10th-place finish at the Yosenkai, Senshu University is in the same category as Hosei. Soka University is down on strength, its best hope that Kenyan Philip Muluwa can boost it into podium range. Last year Tokyo Kokusai University's Vincent Yegon delivered the single greatest individual run in Hakone history with a course record on the Third Stage. This year he says he'll do it again no matter what stage he's put on, but with Tatsuhiko Ito having graduated TKU is also way down on strength and will probably find itself competing for the back end of the podium at best. 

So, there you have it. 12 or 13 programs with good chances of making the 10-deep podium and another 2 or 3 on the cusp, not including the Student Alliance select team. No matter what happens up front, if you've seen Hakone before then you know that means the Day Two racing back in the field around 10th place is going to be some of the best you'll see all year. And thankfully you can depend on NTV to show it to you. Here's to getting the year off to a good start, whatever else is waiting just around the bend in the road ahead.

© 2020 Brett Larner, all rights reserved