Skip to main content

Handicapping the Hakone Ekiden Qualifying Race

by Brett Larner


The record-breaking 2009 Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai, the deepest 20 km road race in history.

The Kanto Regional University Athletics Federation has released the entry lists for the Oct. 15 Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai, a 20 km university men's road race qualifier for the Jan. 1-2 Hakone Ekiden.  Outside the Olympics the two-day, twenty-team, ten-stage Hakone relay is road racing's biggest spectacle, an event with viewership in the tens of millions and the kind of popular enthusiasm the World Marathon Majors dream of.  Of all the things obscured behind the cultural insularity of the Japanese running system Hakone is the biggest loss to the sport as a whole, a gripping, high-level race that never lets up over the course of twelve hours and which, with superb production values, could give clues on how to popularize road racing among non-runners worldwide if it were accessible overseas.

The top ten universities at each year's Hakone are seeded for the following year, freeing them up to run October's shorter and faster Izumo Ekiden.  The nine schools left behind must line up again in Tokyo's Showa Kinen Park along with others from the Kanto region for the Yosenkai to fight it out head-to-head for a Hakone berth. Each school may enter fourteen runners and run twelve, the team being scored on the combined times of its first ten finishers.  The six fastest teams move on, but the last three spots are determined by applying a handicap to the remaining schools' scores using points from May's Kanto Regional University Track & Field Championships.  These points include performances in sprints, middle distances and field events, and, as in Japanese business, have the tendency to reinforce the status quo by rewarding the large and established power centers and kneecapping smaller competitors without the resources to diversify.  Virtually every year a small school with a good distance running team beats a larger school fair and square in the race but is passed up because the bigger school's jumpers or throwers dominated five months previously.

The schools who get cheated this way have one last chance for Hakone representation along with talented runners like World Championships marathoners Yuki Kawauchi (Gakushuin Univ.) and Yoshinori Oda (Kanto Gakuin Univ.) who went to universities with weak distance programs.  The top sixteen Yosenkai finishers from schools other than the nine who qualify for Hakone are selected for a Select Team which competes in the main event as the 20th team.  The Select Team has never won Hakone, but if it finishes in the top ten it bumps one more team down to the Yosenkai the following year.

Shoin University's Aritaka Kajiwara has the best chance among minor school runners for front pack contention at this year's Yosenkai, having broken 29 minutes for the first time at last weekend's Nittai Time Trials 10000 m after making the Select Team last year.  The other twelve runners with sub-29 PBs all belong to schools virtually guaranteed to qualify, the two most talented being two-time National University 10000 m champion Benjamin Gandu (28:21.31, Kenya/Nihon Univ.) and two-time Kanto Regional 5000 m champion Taku Fujimoto (28:27.66, Kokushikan Univ.).  Other top individuals include Takamitsu Hashimoto (28:33.21, Josai Univ.), Cosmas Ondiba (28:37.95, Kenya/Yamanashi Gakuin Univ.), Masaki Ito (28:38.13, Kokushikan Univ.) and Naohiro Domoto (28:38.57, Nihon Univ.).

Looking at the team competition, it looks to be a battle between Josai, Kokushikan and Tokyo Nogyo University for the overall win.  Josai always performs well at the Yosenkai but is lacking the depth of reserves held by Kokushikan and Tokyo Nogyo.  Kokushikan may be the best bet for the win, but as last year its dependence on aces Fujimoto and Ito means that if either of them underperforms the school may not even qualify for Hakone.  Tokyo Nogyo lacks star power but has a high average level and should be more resistant to individual breakdowns.  Nihon University and likeable underdogs Jobu University both look safe for the 4th and 5th spots, although Nihon is struggling with extensive injuries in its lineup and may not be able to pull itself together in time.

Six schools are in contention for the final time slot and the three point slots.  Yamanashi Gakuin has a very slight lead over Teikyo University for the sixth slot but, like Nihon, is dealing with setbacks and could falter.  If Teikyo, a small school without a strong overall track and field program, is bumped to 7th its situation becomes very dire as beside Yamanashi Gakuin it will be facing three other schools with large point handicaps, Juntendo, Daito Bunka and Hosei.  It's conceivable that Teikyo's men could outrun all three schools and still not make Hakone due to the point system.  Kanagawa University likewise should outrun Hosei and could beat both Juntendo and Daito Bunka but has little chance of making it through the handicapping.

Chuo Gakuin, Asia and Senshu University, three schools that have had reliable records of making Hakone in recent years, look unlikely to make the cut this year.  Ryutsu Keizai and Soka University look to be the best of this year's minor schools and have a chance of making a dent in the lower end of the potential qualifiers.  Virtually every year there is an upset with a minor school breaking through to shoot down a struggling big school.  If it happens this year it will be from among this group of five.

The Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai takes place Oct. 15 with an edited broadcast including the qualifier announcement ceremony later than afternoon.  Check back for broadcast details.  JRN will be providing race commentary via Twitter @JRNLive.

2011-12 Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai 20 km Top 20 Schools Ranking
ranked by average 10000 m PB of top 12 adjusted for handicap points

1. Josai University - 29:27.97
2. Kokushikan University - 29:28.15
3. Tokyo Nogyo University - 29:30.96
4. Nihon University - 29:39.21
5. Jobu University - 29:43.16
6. Yamanashi Gakuin University - 29:50.24
-----
7. Juntendo University - 29:41.94 (29:52.19 gross time)
8. Daito Bunka University - 29:46.19 (29:53.19 gross time)
9. Teikyo University - 29:48.13 (29:50.88 gross time)
-----
10. Hosei University - 29:53.17 (30:02.67 gross time)
11. Kanagawa University - 29:53.64 (29:55.14 gross time)
-----
12. Chuo Gakuin University - 30:00.69 (30:02.94 gross time)
13. Ryutsu Keizai University - 30:13.03 (30:19.03 gross time)
14. Soka University - 30:15.37 (30:18.62 gross time)
15. Asia University - 30:15.51 (30:16.51 gross time)
16. Senshu University - 30:18.50 (30:19.50 gross time)
17. Reitaku University - 30:25.87 (30:26.37 gross time)
18. Heisei Kokusai University - 30:35.41 (30:41.16 gross time)
19. Shoin University - 30:44.64 (30:45.14 gross time)
20. Kanto Gakuin University - 30:45.78 (30:47.28 gross time)

(c) 2011 Brett Larner
all rights reserved

Comments

Eryn said…
And I'll fly in from HongKong to take pictures of my third Yosenkai for JRN... ;-)

This is going to be an interesting race and a great suspense. Hope we'll have a great weather as usual.

Daniel
Brett Larner said…
Great, looking forward to seeing you again. I'll make sure I pay attention on the train this time.
maria said…
Is there any way to get to see it from outside Japan? I'm in the UK fwiw.

PS one of my clubmates spotted Mara Y. running along the Thames last week.
Brett Larner said…
If you download the Keyhole TV software linked in the "Watching Races Online" tab you'll be able to watch on Nihon TV starting at 3:30 p.m. Japan time on Oct. 15.

I hope Mara is in one piece for Yokohama. Looking forward to seeing her again.

Most-Read This Week

Australian YouTuber Handed Lifetime Ban by Ageo City Half Marathon After Running 1:06 with Another Runner's Bib (updated)

After discussion with their race's chief JAAF referee, on Nov. 27 the organizers of the Ageo City Half Marathon handed down a lifetime ban from their event against 36-year-old Australian Matt Inglis Fox  for running the Nov. 15 race wearing the bib number of another JAAF-registered runner. The incident came to light after Fox posted on his personal Instagram account that he had run a PB of 1:06:33 and finished 203rd in Ageo with a 10 km split of 31:03, along with photos and video of himself in the race wearing a bib number beginning with 11. Fox did not appear in the results by name or in that time or place, the closest match being a 1:06:54 gross, 1:06:50 net finish time with a 31:21 10 km split for 18th place in the JAAF-registered division and 209th overall by bib number 1129, registered to a non-Japanese Tokyo-resident club runner. The club runner, Harrisson Uk , readily confirmed that he had given his bib to Fox, saying, "I gave my number to Matt. It wasn't me."...

Batt-Doyle and Strintzos Break Records at Launceston Half

Australians Isobel Batt-Doyle and Haftu Strintzos turned in record-breaking performances to win the McGrath Launceston Running Festival Peppers Silo Half Marathon in Tasmania. Running with a private male pacer, NR holder Batt-Doyle dusted the field with the fastest half marathon ever by an Australian woman on Australian soil, a 1:08:46 CR that put her 2 and a half minutes ahead of runner-up Genevieve Gregson . Last year's runner-up Yumi Yoshikawa was almost a minute back from Gregson in 3rd in 1:12:03, but was almost run down by club runner Ayaka Shimoyamada . Starting slow in her international debut, Shimoyamada moved up from 7th over the 2nd half of the race to finish 4th in 1:12:06, kicking hard in the home straight to try to catch Yoshikawa and momentarily blacking out after finishing. Kaho Onishi was 7th in 1:12:45 in her own international debut. The men's half had pacing set at 2:53/km to try to deliver the first-ever sub-61 half marathon on Australian soil. CR holde...

CHN and JPN National Records Go Down - Weekend Track Update

There weren't any Japanese athletes in action at the Rabat Diamond League meet Sunday, but 2 lower-tier domestic meets produced new national records. At the Nittai University Time Trials meet in Yokohama, Samuel Kibathi (Toyota) led the top 5 in the men's 10000 m under 28 minutes in 27:39.97. In 3rd, China's Wenjie Wang took just over a second off his own NR from the same meet last year, setting a new record of 27:47.53. His teammate Haoran Tang was 6th in a 28:27.44 PB, with the top Japanese time in the race being a 28:33.39 for 8th from Jin Yuasa (Toyota). Amazingly, Wang and Tang were back the next day on day 2 of the Nittai meet, Wang running a PB of 13:35.58 for 4th in the A-heat and Tang winning the B-heat in a PB of 13:38.80. Isaac Ndiema took the A-heat in 13:26.49, with the fastest Japanese time going to Yuhei Urano (Fujitsu) with a 13:35.94 for 5th behind Wang. Other Nittai highlights: Deborah Chemutai (Univ. Ent.) won a photo finish against Yua Nagamori ...