Komazawa University is trying to line up its fifth-straight National University Men's Ekiden win this Sunday, but after a runner-up finish to Koku Gakuin University last month at the Izumo Ekiden it's got a tough road ahead with two extra stages and a longer average stage length to deal with. TV Asahi has the live broadcast starting at 7:45 a.m. local time, with official streaming on TVer and unofficial streaming on mov3.co.
Izumo was an unusually close and exciting race between Komazawa, KGU and Hakone Ekiden champ Aoyama Gakuin University that saw the lead change every stage. All three teams were within a few seconds of each other at the start of the anchor stage, where Osaka Marathon winner Kiyoto Hirabayashi of KGU dropped Hakone First Stage winner Kotaro Shinohara from Komazawa and Third Stage winner Aoi Ota of AGU to take the win.
KGU looks like the favorite here too, its top-8 10000 m average of 28:16.61 the class of the field and giving it a solid advantage over the average stage length of 13.35 km. Izumo 3rd and 4th-placers AGU and Soka University are ranked 2nd and 3rd here, Soka with better 10000 m credentials but AGU with an edge in both 5000 m and half marathon.
Chuo University is ranked 4th on paper, but at the Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai qualifier half marathon two weeks ago it finished only 6th and was missing some of its top talent including 13:22.01 man Shunsuke Yoshii. The big question is whether it was holding back there to qualify for Hakone with minimum effort and save it for Nationals, or whether it's really that far off its peak condition.
Komazawa is ranked 5th, one better than Izumo where it ultimately ended up 2nd. It will almost definitely beat Chuo, meaning the top four schools are likely to be the same as at Izumo with the only question the final order. Close behind Komazawa on paper are Izumo 10th-placer Daito Bunka University, 11th-placer Toyo University and Yosenkai 8th-placer Tokyo Kokusai University. For Toyo a lot depends on whether top 4th-year Kosuke Ishida, absent at Izumo, runs, and TKU should do better than its ranking if collegiate 5000 m, 10000 m and half marathon record holder Richard Etir runs instead of 2nd-year Amos Bett, but all three teams lack Komazawa's momentum and except maybe TKU it's not likely we'll see them in contention for the top group at any point.
The top 8 teams at Nationals auto-qualify for the following year, and on paper there's a drop-off between TKU in 8th and Waseda University in 9th. 6th at Izumo, Waseda should be in the race for a podium spot, but after failing to qualify for Hakone #10-ranked Tokai University needs a turnaround in its luck to do the same. Ranked only 11th, Josai University was 3rd at Hakone but only 7th at Izumo right behind Waseda. Josai is heavily dependent on 3rd-year duo Victor Kimutai and Shoya Saito, and any kind of setback for either will hurt Josai's chances of a podium finish.
#12-ranked Nittai University and #13-ranked Teikyo University don't look to be in range of the podium, but Teikyo is a pure ekiden program that often outperforms itself in the big ekidens. With a pre-race ranking of 11 in Izumo it took the final podium spot in 8th. More teams here means that would be harder to replicate, but Teikyo's strength is skewed toward longer stage lengths and Nationals gives it the chance to do even better than at Izumo. #14 and #15-ranked Rikkyo University, winner at the Yosenkai, and Kanagawa University, 9th at the Yosenkai, aren't likely to break through with a podium placing. Rikkyo could conceivably do it if it hadn't just run a hard half marathon at the Yosenkai two weeks ago.
The National University Select Team is ranked #16, and apart from it the top non-Kanto Region team is Kyoto Sangyo University at 17th. With almost all good high schoolers opting to go to college in the Kanto Region in order to get to run Hakone it's almost impossible for the strongest non-Kanto Region team to take even the weakest one from Kanto, so at best expect to see KSU trying to outrun the Select Team for top non-Kanto honors.
56th National University Men's Ekiden Entry Lists
Nagoya-Mie, 3 Nov. 2024
27 teams, 8 stages, 106.8 km
1. Komazawa University (Kanto Region)
2. Aoyama Gakuin University (Kanto Region)
3. Koku Gakuin University (Kanto Region)
4. Chuo University (Kanto Region)
5. Josai University (Kanto Region)
6. Soka University (Kanto Region)
7. Daito Bunka University (Kanto Region)
8. Tokyo Kokusai University (Kanto Region)
9. Sapporo Gakuin University (Hokkaido Region)
10. Tohoku University (Tohoku Region)
11. Tokai University (Kanto Region)
12. Toyo University (Kanto Region)
13. Waseda University (Kanto Region)
14. Nittai University (Kanto Region)
15. Rikkyo University (Kanto Region)
16. Teikyo University (Kanto Region)
17. Kanagawa University (Kanto Region)
18. Niigata University (Hokushinetsu Region)
19. Kogakkan University (Tokai Region)
20. Kansai University (Kansai Region)
21. Kyoto Sangyo University (Kansai Region)
22. Osaka Keizai University (Kansai Region)
23. Ritsumeikan University (Kansai Region)
24. Okayama University (Chugoku-Shikoku Region)
25. Kagoshima University (Kyushu Region)
26. National University Select Team
27. Tokai Region Select Team
© 2024 Brett Larner, all rights reserved
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