Update: Women's 10000 m member Narumi Kobayashi was pulled from the team after testing positive in her pre-departure COVID test at Narita Airport. She is not reported to be experiencing any symptoms. No athlete will be added to the team in her place.
Japan's final team for the Oregon 22 World Championships stands at 67 athletes, 41 men and 26 women. Its only real medal prospects are in the men's race walks, with top 8 prospects in a few of its other traditionally and recently strong events.
Tokyo Olympics men's 20 kmRW silver medalist Koki Ikeda is the single best shot Japan has at an individual medal, among entrants the fastest in the world this year at 1:18:53 and #3 in the rankings. Defending world champ and Olympic bronze medalist Toshikazu Yamanishi is right there too off a win at March's WA Race Walking Team Championships. Eiki Takahashi is 3rd-fastest and Hiroto Jusho 11th in the field, so chances are very good of at least one other finish in the top 8.
The lineup in the still-new men's 35 kmRW has the three fastest times in the world among entrants with Masatora Kawano, Daisuke Matsunaga and Tomohiro Noda standing at 4th through 6th in the rankings, so there's a chance of a medal here too and it'll be a surprise if there isn't at least one top 8 placing. A little more distantly, Yuki Hashioka has the 7th-best jump this season in the men's long jump and is ranked #4. There's a slight possibility of him pulling out a miracle and making the podium, but a finish outside the top 8 would be even more surprising here.
Marathon NR holder Kengo Suzuki is the other man with the best chance of a top 8 finish, ranked 8th in the field on both SB and world rankings. 3000 mSC NR holder Ryuji Miura, 10000 m all-time #2 Ren Tazawa and high jumper Tomohiro Shinno all have outside chances of a top 8, in descending order of probability. The 4x100 m relay, one of Japan's focal events up until the home ground DNF at the Tokyo Olympics, is an unknown this time, missing core members Yoshihide Kiryu, Shuhei Tada and Ryota Yamagata and leaving its chances in less experienced hands. Yuki Koike and Abdul Hakim Sani Brown will play key roles.
No women have realistic chances of medals, Haruka Kitaguchi and Mizuki Matsuda the only ones ranked in single digits on both SB and world rankings. Kitaguchi became the first Japanese athlete to win a Diamond League event when she took the javelin throw at last month's Paris meeting. A top 8 finish looks like a lock, but it'll be a big step up for her to get into medal territory.
Matsuda is by some measures Japan's best marathoner, with wins in 4 of 6 marathons to date including her last three, top 5 in the other two, sub-2:23 in 5 of 6 including her last three, and fastest this season at 2:20:52 for the win in Nagoya in March. But women-only NR holder Mao Ichiyama is only a step behind and made the top 8 at last summer's Olympics, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see her up there with Matsuda the whole way. Along with the other team member Hitomi Niiya it's the best lineup Japan has ever fielded for an international championships, but of course these days the best of the best are a kilometer ahead of them.
Serena Sonoda has the 4th-best time in the women's 35 kmRW and is ranked 11th, giving her a better chance of top 8 than 20 kmRW teammates Nanako Fujii and Kumiko Okada. 7th in the Tokyo Olympics 10000 m five days after breaking the 5000 m NR, Ririka Hironaka is the other athlete with a realistic shot at top 8, only 16th in the 10000 m field on SB but ranked 5th. She has shown she can perform in the big races, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see her do it again.
The complete team entry listing is below. Ranking is by season best on overall entry lists, with world ranking among entered athletes in parentheses. Marks listed are best with the Oregon qualifying window.
Men
Men's 100 m
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23. (43) Ryuichiro Sakai (Osaka Gas) - 10.02 (+1.1)
29. (30) Abdul Hakim Sani Brown (Tumbleweed TC) - 10.04 (+0.8)
Men's 200 m
26. (44) Shota Iizuka (Mizuno) - 20.34
35. (27) Yuki Koike (Sumitomo Denko) - 20.46
36. (37) Koki Ueyama (Sumitomo Denko) - 20.46
Men's 400 m
21. (43) Julian Walsh (Fujitsu) - 45.27
26. (26) Fuga Sato (Nasu Kankyo) - 45.40
36. (35) Kaito Kawabata (Chukyo Univ. AC) - 45.73
Men's 5000 m
22. (25) Hyuga Endo (Sumitomo Denko) - 13:10.69
Men's 10000 m
10. (11) Ren Tazawa (Komazawa Univ.) - 27:23.44
20. (9) Tatsuhiko Ito (Honda) - 27:33.38
Men's 110 mH
11. (24) Shunsuke Izumiya (Sumitomo Denko) - 13.21 (-1.2)
18. (26) Rachid Muratake (Juntendo Univ.) - 13.27 (+0.5)
27. (36) Shuhei Ishikawa (Fujitsu) - 13.39 (+2.0)
Men's 400 mH
18. (17) Kazuki Kurokawa (Hosei Univ.) - 48.89
32. (34) Takayuki Kishimoto (Fujitsu) - 49.65
Men's 3000 mSC
12. (9) Ryuji Miura (Juntendo Univ.) - 8:09.92
29. (29) Ryoma Aoki (Honda) - 8:20.09
37. (24) Kosei Yamaguchi (Aisan Kogyo) - 8:23.29
Relays
(-) Men's 4x100 m - Yuki Koike (Sumitomo Denko), Ryuichiro Sakai (Osaka Gas), Abdul Hakim Sani Brown (Tumbleweed TC), Ryota Suzuki (Suzuki), Koki Ueyama (Sumitomo Denko), Hiroki Yanagida (Toyo Univ.)
(-) Men's 4x400 m - Ryuki Iwasaki (Osaka Taiiku Univ.), Kaito Kawabata (Chukyo Univ. AC), Mitsuki Kawauchi (Osaka Gas), Joseph Nakajima (Toyo Univ.), Fuga Sato (Nasu Kankyo), Julian Walsh (Fujitsu)
(-) Mixed 4x400 m - Ryuki Iwasaki (Osaka Taiiku Univ.), Mitsuki Kawauchi (Osaka Gas), Joseph Nakajima (Toyo Univ.)
Men's High Jump
9. (13) Tomohiro Shinno (Kyudenko) - 2.30 m
19. (18) Ryoichi Akamatsu (Awas) - 2.27 m
Men's Pole Vault
22. (29) Seito Yamamoto (Toyota) - 5.70 m
Men's Long Jump
7. (4) Yuki Hashioka (Fujitsu) - 8.27 m (+1.4)
11. (26) Natsuki Yamakawa (Saga Sports Assoc.) - 8.17 m (+0.9)
Men's Javelin Throw
21. (14) Roderick Genki Dean (Mizuno) - 82.18 m
28. (27) Kenji Ogura (Tochigi Sports Assoc.) - 80.25 m
Men's Marathon
8. (8) Kengo Suzuki (Fujitsu) - 2:04:56
16. (-) Gaku Hoshi (Konica Minolta) - 2:07:31
19. (-) Yusuke Nishiyama (Toyota) - 2:07:47
Men's 20 kmRW
1. (3) Koki Ikeda (Asahi Kasei) - 1:18:53
3. (25) Eiki Takahashi (Fujitsu) -1:19:04
11. (-) Hiroto Jusho (Juntendo Univ.) - 1:20:14
-. (-) Toshikazu Yamanishi (Aichi Seiko) - 1:17:20
Men's 35 kmRW
1. (4) Masatora Kawano (Asahi Kasei) - 2:26:40
2. (5) Daisuke Matsunaga (Fujitsu) - 2:27:09
3. (6) Tomohiro Noda (SDF Academy) - 2:27:18
Women
Women's 800 m
47. (42) Nozomi Tanaka (Toyota Jidoshokki) - 2:02.36
Women's 1500 m
34. (13) Nozomi Tanaka (Toyota Jidoshokki) - 3:59.19
42. (38) Ran Urabe (Sekisui Kagaku) - 4:07.90
Women's 5000 m
17. (18) Nozomi Tanaka (Toyota Jidoshokki) - 14:59.93
25. (11) Ririka Hironaka (Japan Post) - 14:52.84
27. (28) Kaede Hagitani (Edion) - 14:59.36
Women's 10000 m
16. (5) Ririka Hironaka (Japan Post) - 31:00.71
19. (16) Rino Goshima (Shiseido) - 31:10.02
21. (22) Narumi Kobayashi (Meijo Univ.) - 31:22.34 - withdrawn after positive COVID test
Women's 100 mH
25. (39) Masumi Aoki (77 Ginko) - 12.86
32. (35) Mako Fukube (NKK) - 12.93
Women's 3000 mSC
36. (40) Yuno Yamanaka (Ehime Ginko) - 9:38.19
38. (43) Reimi Yoshimura (Daito Bunka Univ.) - 9:39.86
Women's Long Jump
23. (18) Sumire Hata (Shibata Kogyo) - 6.63 m
Women's Javelin Throw
5. (8) Haruka Kitaguchi (JAL) - 63.93 m
20. (21) Momone Ueda (Zenrin) - 61.20 m
23. (27) Sae Takemoto (Saga Sports Assoc.) - 60.84 m
Relays
(-) Women's 4x100 m - Masumi Aoki (77 Ginko), Hanae Aoyama (Konan Univ.), Arisa Kimishima (DK Shiken), Mei Kodama (Mizuno), Midori Mikase (Sumitomo Denko)
(-) Mixed 4x400 m - Haruna Kuboyama (Imamura Byoin), Mayu Kobayashi (J.Vic), Nanako Matsumoto (Toho Ginko)
Women's Marathon
9. (6) Mizuki Matsuda (Daihatsu) - 2:20:52
10. (10) Mao Ichiyama (Shiseido) - 2:21:02
11. (18) Hitomi Niiya (Sekisui Kagaku) - 2:21:17
Women's 20 kmRW
7. (16) Nanako Fujii (Edion) - 1:29:29
8. (19) Kumiko Okada (Fujitsu) - 1:29:31
Women's 35 kmRW
4. (11) Serena Sonoda (NTN) - 2:45:48
Comments
I think that both Miura and Endo have the opportunity to beat NR in 3000SC and 5000.
I have the impression Miura was in top form a month ago and he may not be at peak now: in Stockolm he ran a bold race with 2.32 and 5.04 splits in the 3000 and was on pace for destroying NR: he paid for it badly on the last KM which is usually his strenght, showing he isn't at that level yet. He clocked 7.47 who is his PB but he could be faster I think with a more balanced strategy (I agree with what he did though, going all out and see how he stacked up against guys who finished 7.29).
He has a chance at a top 5 place in my opinion if he is in top form like he was 1-2 months ago, especially if the race isn't super fast and he is fresh for his final sprint.
I doubt Endo will be able to finish in a great place in the 5000 but I think he defnitely has 5000 NR potential. Like Miura he seemed to be on top form 1-2 months ago (and together with Miura they could have smashed the 1500 NR too had they attacked a bit earlier). It would be cool if he managed to beat Osako's record.
Agree that race walks have the better chances overall. The Marathon team other than Suzuki (which will do well) will be intriguing to see at those guys aren't nearly as experienced in international competitions.
Can't wait for the world championship to start, Miura will be racing right there on day 1.
I'm also very keen to see how Kengo Suzuki fairs in the Men's Marathon.