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The 2026 Hakone Ekiden By the Numbers



It seemed at the time that last year's Hakone Ekiden had to have been a peak of some kind, with 4 new course records between Hakone's 10 stages, a new Day Two CR, a new overall CR, and all-time top 3 performances on 5 other stages and the Day One course. But this year went even higher.

5 stages, both Day One and Day Two, and the overall course had their records broken, 3 of the stages that didn't have their CR broken had an all-time #2 performance, 2 of them less than 10 seconds off the CR, and the other 2 stages had an all-time #3 performance. Every stage had at least 2 all-time top 6 performances, the Tenth Stage had 6 in its all-time top 10, and the opening First Stage saw 9 of its 10 fastest-ever runs.

The 1:07:16 CR on the uphill Fifth Stage rightfully earned Asahi Kuroda from overall winner Aoyama Gakuin University the MVP award at this year's Hakone, but the other 4 stage CR, 1:00:28 for the 21.3 km First Stage by Koku Gakuin University's Rui Aoki, 1:05:09 for the 23.1 km Second Stage by Josai University's Victor Kimutai, 1:03:45 for the 21.4 km Eighth Stage, and 1:07:31 for the 23.1 km Tenth Stage by Komazawa University's Keita Sato, also impressed.

Especially Kimutai's, which was completely unexpected and took 21 seconds off the CR set last year by collegiate 5000 m, 10000 m and half marathon record holder Richard Etir from Tokyo Kokusai University. Barely making it to Hakone after being overtrained early in December, Sato's CR made him a rare double CR holder at Hakone, having broken the Seventh Stage record last year.

The 2 near-misses on CR, 1:00:01 for the 20.9 km Fourth Stage by Waseda University 1st-year Rui Suzuki, and 56:48 for the 20.8 km downhill Sixth Stage by Soka University's Riki Koike, were also incredible, Suzuki's just 1 second off the senior-year record by TKU's Vincent Yegon, and Koike's 1 second off the record that earned AGU's Akimu Nomura the MVP award last year. Seventh Stage winner Goki Takayama from KGU came close to Sato's CR from last year, just 11 seconds off.

Margins between the CR and all-time 2nd-fastest marks at Hakone after this year's race:





AGU took about 4 minutes off its overall CR from last year, running 10:37:34 for the complete 217.1 km course, 2:56.2/km. That pace would have put it 28th out of 40 teams at the 7-stage, 100.0 km New Year Ekiden corporate men's national championships on Jan. 1. But take out the 2 mountain stages with a peak elevation of 874 m and AGU's pace was 2:55.4/km for the other 8 stages, good enough for 23rd against pros running about half as far.

The New Year Ekiden only has one stage about half marathon-length, the 21.9 km Second Stage. 28 of the 40 corporate league runners on that stage ran the equivalent of a sub-62 half marathon, with Hibiki Yoshida making his debut for Sunbelx in 1:01:01, equivalent to a 58:48 half marathon, and 11 others running the equivalent of a sub-hour half. At Hakone, 18 out of a field of 21 runners ran sub-62 on the First Stage alone.

Excluding the mountain stages a total of 57 collegiate runners ran equivalent to sub-62 for a half marathon across 8 stages, with Hayato Honma of Chuo University fastest at the equivalent of 59:18 for the 21.3 km Third Stage and both Kimutai and Aoki also running the equivalent of under an hour. 57 going sub-62 at Hakone this year was a big increase from the 40 in 2024 and 33 last year, another sign of how much the level has gone up on Japan's collegiate scene.

















Four brands, Adidas, ASICS, Nike and Puma, dominate the market at Hakone with a combined share of about 95%, the other 5% made up of brands with just a few people in their shoes. Adidas still had the largest market share at Hakone this year, down slightly from 36.2%, 76 out of 210 runners, in 2025 to 35.7%, 75 out of 210, this year. ASICS and PUMA were the only brands to have grown their market share in both 2025 and 2026, ASICS going from 24.8% in 2024 to 25.7% last year to 28.6% this year, and Puma from 8.7% two years ago to 11.9% in 2025 to 14.8%. Nike's decline continues to stun, going from virtually 100% in the early days of carbon plated shoes to 42.6% in 2024 to 23.3% in 2025 to 16.7% this year, almost overtaken by Puma.




Nike did recover a bit earlier in the season with 3 stage titles at the Izumo Ekiden after winning none last year and 2 at the National University Ekiden after only 1 in 2024, but not a single athlete wearing Nike won a stage at Hakone 2026. It's incredible given that 7/10 stages at Hakone 2024 went to Nike athletes, and it speaks volumes to the impact that the stage wins in 2024 by AGU's Kuroda and Aoi Ota wearing Adidas Pro Evo 1 had.


While Nike went 7-2-0 for Hakone stage wins over the last 3 years, Adidas has gone 2-6-6, matching its overall market share in looking like it has hit a ceiling of influence. Puma's share of stage titles continues to grow, from 0 in 2024 to 1 in 2025 to 2 in 2026, also tracking its market share. ASICS has failed to do the same, with only 1 stage win in 2024, none last year, and 1 again this year. On scored its first Hakone stage title last year with Sato's Seventh Stage CR and repeated that this year with his Tenth Stage win, but its failure to capitalize on this in terms of market share remains a mystery.

This breakdown of brand market share over the last decade illustrates how Nike's decline could be viewed more as a normalization now that other brands have good carbon plate shoes on the market. It also illustrates how Mizuno has actually declined, and how Puma has replaced it as one of the main brands of choice.
The brand market share at the New Year Ekiden was different from at Hakone, with the same 4 major brands outweighing the others but with different weighting and order. ASICS was the favorite at 28.2% with 79/280 runners, Adidas at 22.5% with 63/280 just beating out Nike, 22.1% with 62/280, and Puma a ways back at 13.9% with 39/280. All other brands accounted for 13.2%, with just 37/280 athletes opting for On, New Balance, Brooks, Mizuno, Li Ning and others.
 
© 2026 Brett Larner, all rights reserved

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Comments

CK said…
As ever appreciating your statistical analyses.
The shoes data, determined from a cohort of exclusively elite athletes, is so much more informative than releases based on big city marathons etc.
Anonymous said…
The numbers don't lie about the level of this year Hakone and the rise we are witnessing.

I think stages 2 & 3 are particularly impressive and of course Suzuki's debut on 4th stage is pretty astonishing.
The stage 2 with usually the best runners has those uphill sections that are heavy on the legs and considering it's 23 km I think there's a legit argument that a good number of those guys would go sub 59 in a regular, flatter half marathon. Pretty amazing.

The result of that kind of depth is that not only the 2nd stage stars are producing amazing times on a difficult stage but also the other stage guys are really getting faster and faster.
3rd and 4th stage are pretty much ace material now and Suzuki may just took it to a whole newe level next year.
What we saw by Kuroda on the 5th stage is legendary and it makes you wonder what he could have run this year on the 2nd stage. Sub 1.05?

Getting this kind of results and depth after the turnover of stars we had over the past couple of years it's simply amazing.

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