Earlier this week the KGRR released the entry lists for the Jan. 2-3 Hakone Ekiden's 99th running. We'll do a more detailed preview closer to the race, but a few quick takeaways:
Not including the Kanto Region Student Alliance select team, each of the 20 universities in the race entered 16 names, of which 10 will actually start the race. 13 teams have 10-man 5000 m PB averages under 14 minutes, 15 teams have 10-man 10000 m PB averages under 29 minutes, and 4 teams have 10-man half marathon averages under 1:03. With the average stage length at Hakone being just over a half marathon it's hard to see any team outside the 4 with 62-minute half averages being in it for the win, but the massive number of 28-minute 10000 m teams shows where the focus has been during the pandemic, and low-ranked teams like Daito Bunka University, Nittai University and Tokyo Kokusai University that have good track credentials without half marathon marks to match should do better than what it looks like on paper.
2021 Hakone winner Komazawa University has the fastest 5000 m, 10000 m and half marathon averages in the field, and with course record wins at both the Izumo Ekiden and National University Ekiden this season it's hard to see Komazawa losing without something going wrong with one of its runners mid-race. 13 of the 16 names on the entry list are good enough to be starting members, so head coach Hiroaki Oyagi has enough to work with to make sure that doesn't happen.
Ranked 4th, 2022 Hakone champ Aoyama Gakuin University is the only team with 10 men actually under 14 minutes, 29 minutes and 64 minutes, so while it lacks some of the individual star power of Komazawa and other top teams its high average level means that coach Susumu Hara has a lot of flexibility in how to set things up. AGU was 4th at Izumo and 3rd at Nationals, so things are trending in the right direction as the distance increases.
2nd last year, Juntendo University has that ranking again, coming to Hakone off a 5th at Izumo and 4th at Nationals. It has the 3rd-best half marathon average in the field, but most of those marks are several years old now and it may struggle to do better than 3rd over Hakone's longer stages. #3-ranked Koku Gakuin University has a better chance of taking 2nd, having the best half marathon average in the field after Komazawa and beating both AGU and Juntendo for 2nd at Izumo and Nationals.
3rd at Izumo but only 7th at Nationals, Chuo University is strong but doesn't look like it has the goods to be in contention for the win. It's solidly in position to make the top 10 though. A top 10 finish earns a team a guaranteed trip to the following year's Hakone, and with 2024 being Hakone's 100th running that's more important than ever before. And at this point the race for the top 10 seems like it'll be incredibly exciting.
#6-ranked Meiji University almost always underperforms, while #7-ranked Soka University has proven it punches heavier than its weight, almost winning in 2021. #8 Yamanashi Gakuin University through #14 Waseda University are all very close to each other, and #15 is Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai qualifier winner Daito Bunka. Assuming the top 5 and Soka are locks for top 10, that means 9 teams competing for 4 spots at what'll be the biggest road race ever. And like we said earlier, even Nittai and Tokyo Kokusai could get into that bracket too. #12-ranked Teikyo University looks like a darkhorse contender to surprise, one of only 2 schools outside the top 4 and the only one outside the top 8 with 10 men having half marathon bests under 64 minutes.
Check back closer to race date for a more detailed preview and info on how to follow the world's greatest road race live.
Comments
At this time like you said komazawa can lose it only if one of their runners has a really bad day. Or (but unlikely) if they got to peak form too soon.
AGU will still pur up a challenge, they are well prepared comes january.
I agree on Juntendo, they haven't improved as hopes after that Yosenkai but to give them hope: Ebisawa and Asai, 2 second years have recentlu run 62.13 and 62.40 at ageo with their PBs. And another second year, Yutani, ran 63.08.
They could be unexpected reliable new legs.
They lack a real difference maker though as Miura doesnt train enough for these distances, they don't have a sub 61/61.10 guy like most other contending teams.
Koku Gakuin Is growing and growing. They have speed and lots of stable runners. Not enough for komazawa but the podium Battle as well as the top 10 Battle should be amazing.