Chuo Looking at a Landslide - Izumo Ekiden Preview

Ekiden season is well underway, but for university men it kicks off Monday at the season-opening Izumo Ekiden. At 6 legs averaging 7.5 km it's short and sweet compared to November's National University Ekiden and January's Hakone Ekiden, showing off some different skill sets than at the half marathon-centric Hakone.

In that regard this year's race looks pretty interesting. Most of the top programs, like last year's 1st through 4th-placers Koku Gakuin University, Aoyama Gakuin University, Komazawa University and Soka University, 6th-place Waseda University and 7th-place Josai University, are down a bit on average performance level over 5000 m and 10000 m, while in most cases having better half marathon averages. At the same time some of the next-tier programs like 8th-place Teikyo University and 11th-place Toyo University are up on track speed this season, making them a threat for better placings this year.

And at the top of the list, Chuo University and last year's 5th-placer, the Ivy League Select Team. Kanto Region teams earn an invitation to Izumo via a top 10 finish at Hakone. After being ranked #1 at the 2023 Izumo Chuo was a disaster at the 2024 Hakone and didn't make Izumo last year, but it's coming in this time around with what is on paper the best team ever to line up at Izumo with a 20:47.21 6-man average for 7.5 km. That's pretty heavily dependent on 4th-year Shunsuke Yoshii, the winner of Hakone's First Stage this year, but after a recent DNF on the track there are questions about his fitness. It's telling that he's been put on the 6.2 km 4th leg, the second-shortest at Izumo, instead of one of the longer stages where he'd have more impact if he were fit.

But even so, barring another disaster it will be hard for any other team to match Chuo except maybe the Ivies. On paper they're almost Chuo's equal with a 20:48.12 average. But even more than in Chuo's case, that's heavily dependent on one runner, in this case sub-13 and sub-27 man Graham Blanks fresh off the Tokyo World Championships. If he were fit it would be an awesome race up front, but without him the Ivies are well in range of the next tier of teams. As it stands right now Blanks and James Lawrence, the team's next-best 10000 m runner with a 27:54.62 PB, are listed as alternates. Coaches often list some of their top people as alternates in order to see other teams's strategies, then swap them in on race morning. That would be pretty cagey for the Ivy League, but with two of their weakest members, Talha Syed and William Laird, listed on the two longest legs it wouldn't be a surprise to see a swap happen.

At the next tier, AGU, KGU and Soka are all bumped down one place in the pre-race rankings from last year by Chuo but keep the same order, with Komazawa holding on to the same #6 ranking it had last year. All have been hit by graduation to some degree, AGU the hardest. AGU, KGU and Soka are theoretically a step ahead of Komazawa with 7 seconds per runner separating #5-ranked Soka from Komazawa, but as with last year Komazawa is likely to perform a lot better than how it looks at this point, even without star 4th-year Keita Sato.

Popular opinion has it that Waseda is going to be a threat this year, pulling off a recruiting coup by getting both Rui Suzuki, 13:25.59 for 5000 m, and Tetsu Sasaki, 13:40.02 to add to 4th-year Tomonori Yamaguchi and 3rd-year Shinsaku Kudo. Waseda is only ranked 7th, but that's mostly due to its younger runners not having done serious 10000 m yet. Put them on the shorter stages and it'll be fine. Head coach Katsuhiko Hanada seems to have faith in Suzuki's potential, having put him on the 8.5 km 3rd leg.

There's almost no difference between the 8th to 11th-ranked teams, Toyo, Josai, Tokyo Kokusai University and Teikyo. Toyo and especially Teikyo have positive momentum this year, in Teikyo's case thanks in big part to a CR win at June's Launceston Half Marathon in Tasmania by 4th-year Teruki Shimada. A best-case scenario for any of them would be a 6th-place finish.

With 10 teams from the Tokyo-centric Kanto Region in the field it's a rarity for a team from any other part of the country to beat even one Kanto team. In this case Kansai University is the best of the rest, its top 4th-year Kosei Tanimura good enough to have gone to one of the Hakone regular schools. But they're still behind #11-ranked Teikyo by over 36 seconds per runner, meaning it would take a complete breakdown by one of the teams ahead of them for Kansai, or any of the other bottom 11 teams in the field, to have a chance of doing better than 12th.

The Izumo Ekiden will be broadcast live on Fuji TV starting at 12:20 p.m. local time Monday, with the race starting at 1:00 p.m. Official streaming will be on TVer and YouTube. JRN will be on-site in Izumo.

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