Ekiden season got off to a rocky start with the cancelation of high-level races like the Izumo Ekiden and East Japan Women's Ekiden. But with the Hakone Ekiden Qualifier and National Corporate Women's Ekiden Qualifier two weeks ago and last weekend's National University Women's Ekiden all going off without any corona-related problems, fears that the whole season would go the way of marathon season have pretty well calmed down. Tomorrow is the next big race, and it's one of the biggest, the National University Men's Ekiden.
25 of the top teams from across the national will compete over eight stages adding up to 106.8 km between Nagoya and Mie, the shortest leg the race's first at 9.5 km and the longest the 19.7 km anchor stage. TV Asahi will be broadcasting the whole thing live starting at 7:45 a.m. Sunday Japan time and running until 13:40. It doesn't look like there's an official live stream, but there are options like mov3.co, iTVer, and TVJapanLive that might work, and unofficial streams tend to pop up on Youtube once the race gets underway. We'll be doing English commentary on @JRNLive as usual, but before that we'll break down the field for you.
With an average stage length of 13.35 km a team's credentials over 10000 m have the biggest impact on its success at Nationals, but given that two stages are close to 20 km the kind of half marathon ability needed for January's Hakone Ekiden also plays a big role. The lack of road racing this year has meant most schools have been doing endless time trials on the track over 5000 m and 10000 m. Some programs have benefitted from this in rankings, but for others it has bumped them down lower than they probably are. That makes it harder than usual to predict, but this is what it's looking like right now. Click any roster to enlarge.
The Win
Only 9th last year, Juntendo University comes in as the strongest team on paper following its win two weeks ago at the Hakone Ekiden qualifier half marathon, where star first-year Ryuji Miura ran an Asian junior record 1:01:41 and its tenth man was 1:02:40. And it's not just the half. Juntendo has an incredible twelve men on its roster with 10000 m bests under 29 minutes, more than #2 and #3-ranked Aoyama Gakuin University and Komazawa University combined. It doesn't have the kind of depth those teams have over 5000 m, but taken altogether Juntendo is the class of the field. It has only won Nationals once, in 2000, but the only thing that might be standing in the way of a 20th anniversary win is the question of whether it has fully recovered from the Hakone qualifier two weeks ago.
Juntendo is the strongest, but 2020 Hakone winner AGU has to be viewed as the favorite. Tokai University stopped it from scoring back-to-back national titles last year, but this year AGU's roster is way stronger than last season's, and it will take Juntendo running up to potential to stop it. Or Komazawa. Komazawa scored four-straight wins at Nationals from 2011 to 2014. It hasn't won since then but has been in the top four every time including a 3rd-place finish last year, and with slightly better speed than AGU over 5000 m and 10000 m, if a little softer over the half, look for it to be up in it with the other two top-ranked teams.
The Podium
The National University Men's Ekiden has an eight-deep podium, with every team that makes it scoring a place at the next year's race. There's a pretty clear divide between eighth and ninth, but lots of factors could turn that around. Yamanashi Gakuin University, Teikyo University, Chuo Gakuin University, Josai University and Meiji University are all almost equal in ability and should be in the race to make the podium. Like Juntendo, YGU, Josai and CGU all ran the Hakone qualifier two weeks ago and could be suffering. Josai was a solid 3rd there, YGU underperforming a bit at 7th. The always-reliable CGU somehow finished only 12th despite not having any obvious problems, so expect its runners to be extra-motivated to make up for missing the Hakone cut. 8th last year, Teikyo is sure to turn in a stable performance, while Meiji will be trying to live up to its potential after finishing 16th last year.
On the Edge
9th-ranked Nittai University got there on the strength of its half marathon results, but with most of those having come in its 6th-place Hakone qualifier finish and no track credentials to match it is likely to end up closer to its 14th-place finish at Nationals last year. Defending champ Tokai is in the opposite situation, clearly down on strength after losses to graduation this year but having the track times to punch far above an average dragged down by a lack of half marathon times. Top three isn't likely, but look for Tokai to make the podium. Nihon University and Koku Gakuin University mirror Nittai and Tokai, Nihon finishing only 18th at the Hakone qualifier and KGU down from its 7th-place finish last year due to graduation but still an outside contender for the podium.
The Rest
Last year's 5th, 6th and 4th-placers Toyo University, Waseda University and Tokyo Kokusai University are all ranked near the bottom of the front half of the field. For all three, especially Waseda, that's clearly due to the lack of opportunities to race the half this year, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see any of them inside the top five. TKU was a surprise 4th last year before going on to run great at Hakone, so it's not out of the range of possibility.
With 15 teams in the field of 25 hailing from the Tokyo-area Kanto Region, home of the Hakone Ekiden, it's always news if any team from outside Kanto cracks the top 15 at Nationals. Kyoto's Ritsumeikan University did it last year, taking 12th after finishing 16th three years in a row. Ristumeikan is the top non-Kanto program again, but there's a pretty gap between it and 15th-ranked TKU that will take something special to bridge. Look out for Mie's Kogakkan University as well, only 18th last year but will a small core of sub-29 runners this year led by senior Shoya Kawase, 1:01:18 for the half in Marugame this spring and 28:18.25 for 10000 m two weeks ago.
© 2020 Brett Larner, all rights reserved
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