A Once-in-a-Century Chance for Glory - 100th Hakone Ekiden Qualifier Preview

In January the Hakone Ekiden celebrates its 100th running, and it’s going to be the biggest road race in history. The university men’s ekiden season kicked off Monday with the season-opening Izumo Ekiden, where course record holder Komazawa University followed up last year’s triple crown of wins at all three major university ekidens with a CR-breaking title defense. Saturday is the next important race, the Hakone Ekiden Yosenkai qualifying half marathon at Tokyo’s Showa Kinen Park, and being the top 13 there is everything.

The top 10 teams at the 2023 Hakone Ekiden, Komazawa, Chuo University, Aoyama Gakuin University, Koku Gakuin University, Juntendo University, Waseda University, Hosei University, Soka University, Josai University and Toyo University, secured their places at the 100th. On Saturday 57 other universities will compete for the remaining 13 places at Hakone. It’s an extremely big deal to be in the field at the 100th, with schools like Rikkyo University, Keio University and Asia University having pumped millions into their programs in the last few years in hopes of being one of the 23.

The Yosenkai, as the qualifier is known, has the most spectacular start in the sport, with competing teams lined up single-file in PB order, 50-wide across the runway at the Tachikawa Air Self-Defense Force base next to the park and all going off together in front of their marching bands, cheerleading squads, and tens of thousands of fans, family and alumni. Each team can run up to 12 athletes, with its 10 fastest finishers scoring and teams ranked on their cumulative times. The announcement of the results on the center field of the park, counting down from first qualifier to first non-qualifier, is tense and dramatic, especially as it gets to the very bottom, one team exploding into screams of joy and the other into tears. And it’s all broadcast live and nationwide on Nihon TV starting at 9:25 local time Saturday. If you've got a VPN you should be able to watch from overseas. If not, you could try mov3.co/ntv.

You never know exactly how it’s going to play out, but 6 teams look pretty much certain to make the cut. 4 teams, Chuo Gakuin University, Kanagawa University, Teikyo University and Yamanashi Gakuin University, have at least 7 men with half marathon bests under 64 minutes, Teikyo leading the way at 8 and both CGU and YGU having one man under 62 minutes. Daito Bunka University and Meiji University only have 5 men each under 64 minutes, but DBU has the fastest 10-man 10000 m average in the field, 28:53.22, and Meiji is ranked 5th on 10000 m average at 29:02.37, so it’s hard to see either not making top 13.

4 other teams are likely to make it, but a little more shakily. At one end of the spectrum, Tokyo Kokusai University and Tokai University have the 2nd and 3rd-fastest 10000 m averages, 28:56.56 and 29:00.10, but have only 2 and 3 runners under 64 minutes in the half respectively. At the other, Rikkyo and Nittai University each have 5 men under 64 minutes but are further down the 10000 m rankings at 9th and 10th. But even so, it would be a surprise not to see all 4 make it along with the 6 favorites. The biggest strike against Rikkyo, which qualified for Hakone last year for the first time since 1968, is the firing of its head coach Yuichiro Ueno this week after a gossip magazine released pictures suggesting Ueno is having an affair with a female team member. You have to hope Rikkyo’s athletes can keep focus and come through all the same.

10 would be the normal number of qualifiers, but in honor of this being the 100th running there are 3 extra spots to be had. And that’s where things start getting interesting. Kokushikan University, Nihon University and Tokyo Nogyo University are almost tied on average 10000 m times, Kokushikan and TNU having 3 men under 64 minutes each but Nihon only 2. Reitaku University has never made Hakone but has been the top non-qualifier multiple times in recent years, and at 14th on 10000 m time that’s where it sits again pre-race. But with 3 men under 64 minutes it’s right there with Kokushikan, Nihon, TNU, and if luck and sheer force of will go its way it could pick one of them off. If you want to cheer for an underdog, Reitaku is your team.

Senshu University and Surugadai University have almost no chance of qualifying, but if there’s a dark horse pick it’s Takushoku University. Takushoku is ranked only 17th on 10000 m average, but it’s one of only 13 schools whose 10th-fastest man is under 30 minutes, i.e. it might lack the star power of some of the other teams up front but has the kind of depth that produces stability, a trait that has often paid off at the Yosenkai. And it has 3 sub-64 half marathoners, so there’s not much separating it from the Kokushikan - Nihon - TNU - Reitaku group.

Hakone is limited to schools in the Tokyo-area Kanto Region, but for the 100th the Yosenkai has been opened up for teams from the rest of the country to take a stab at qualifying. If they make top 13, they’ll be accepted. As great as that would be to see, the Kanto Region is the draw for virtually all the top talent and only its teams really focus on the half marathon distance. The top 2 contenders, Kyoto Sangyo University and Ritsumeikan University, also from Kyoto, aren’t even close to the top 25 by 10-man 10000 m average, KSU at 30:07.49 and Ritsumeikan at 30:08.17, and each has only 1 sub-64 half marathoner. It would take a miracle for either to qualify.

Interestingly, another non-Kanto team running this year, Aichi Kogyo University, features Mongolian Jambaldorj Serod in its lineup. His father is Mongolian NR holder Ser-Od Bat-Ochir, who will be running the Tokyo Legacy Half Marathon the next day. AKU, KSU, Ritsumeikan, and even most of the Kanto Region schools in the field may not really have any chance of qualifying for the big show, but just like the U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials, for most of the field it’s an achievement just to make it to the qualifying race, something they can be proud of the rest of their lives.

© 2023 Brett Larner, all rights reserved