A piece I wrote for PodiumRunner looking at how Japan produced the incredible depth seen at last weekend's Lake Biwa Mainichi Marathon, where a record 42 men went under 2:10.
The part estimating a 2-minute shoe effect was originally longer but cut back for reasons of overall length. As Paul Gains details, Cornell University researchers estimated an impact of from 2 to 4 minutes depending on the individual. Applying that to the field as a whole, as I wrote a 2-minute effect would be equivalent to a 2:06:56 winning time in Lake Biwa, 4 men in 2:08, and 10 in 2:09, a pretty reasonable estimate based on past Japanese results.
A 3-minute effect would give a 2:07:56 winning time, 4 men in 2:09, and a whole lot of people in the 2:10~12 range. Considering that Fukuoka 2003 had 3 Japanese men in 2:07, 2 in 2:08 and 1 in 2:09, this seems too conservative as it would suggest no progression in almost 20 years. A 4-minute handicap would give 2:08:56 for the winning time and nobody else under 2:10, That's definitely way too conservative for how the race looked and felt compared to past Japanese races with results like that.
Given all that, I think for the average of the field 2 minutes is about right. It's worth noting that even with a 4-minute handicap, Lake Biwa had 107 men under 2:20, eclipsing the 1991 London Marathon's 105. In that regard it's safe to say this was the greatest marathon ever seen.
Comments