National University Men's Ekiden Preview

Sunday is part two in the Big Three University Men's Ekiden series, the 8-stage, 106.8 km National University Men's Ekiden from Nagoya to Mie. TV Asahi has a 6-hour live broadcast, with English coverage on @JRNLive starting at 7:45 a.m. local time Sunday.

Two-time national champ Komazawa University is riding high in its prep for a third-straight title, winning last month's season-opening Izumo Ekiden with a new course record to set itself up for a shot at a rare Big Three triple crown. Each of the three races has a different focus, Izumo's 7.51 km average stage length prioritizing 5000 m and 10000 m credentials, Nationals' 13.35 km average length shifting the balance toward the 10000 m to half marathon range, and Hakone's 21.7 km average pushing half marathon ability up front. Komazawa has it covered.

The 8 fastest people on its Nationals roster have average PBs of 13:35.90 for 5000 m and 28:19.32 for 10000 m. None of the 26 other teams in the race are anywhere close to either of those. 7 teams have someone under 13:30 for 5000 m. Komazawa has 3. 5 teams have someone under 28:00. Komazawa has 2. 6 teams have someone under 1:02 for the half marathon. Komazawa has 3, one of them under 1:01. Who could possibly touch that? It'll take a mid-race blowup for Komazawa to lose. But that does happen, in a way it doesn't at the corporate level.

One big variable for Komazawa is 1st-year Keita Sato, a middle distance-oriented runner who made a stellar college ekiden debut at Izumo by beating Juntendo University's 3000 mSC NR holder Ryuji Miura over a 5.8 km stage. At Nationals he's set to run the 11.1 km Second Stage, the furthest distance he's ever raced. It's half of what he'll face at Hakone, but it's still a major step up and whether he has the development to handle it remains to be seen.

On paper Juntendo is Komazawa's toughest competition, but that's mostly a product of its top 8 having the best half marathon average in the field, 1:02:26, after an incredible team performance at the Hakone qualifier half marathon two years ago. On track credentials it's second tier relative to Komazawa, like everyone else. It should make the 8-deep podium, probably in its front half.

Aoyama Gakuin University almost pulled off the win last year, which would have been its first national title since 2018. Along with Juntendo and #4-ranked Koku Gakuin University it's one of only 3 teams with top 8 averages under 14:00, 29:00 and 1:03:00, and it almost always performs when it counts. KGU was a distant 2nd to Komazawa at Izumo, but AGU was surprisingly mediocre, finishing only 4th. AGU's success rate goes up with the distance it's racing, but while it might be the favorite for another Hakone win look for both it and KGU to be racing for top 3 here.

Izumo 3rd-placer Chuo University and 6th-place Soka University are closest to Komazawa on 10000 m strength, Soka with a top-8 average of 28:25.71 and Chuo with 28:27.36. If either of them is going to give Komazawa a serious run for it it'll to come down to what their people can do on the two long stages, the 17.6 km Seventh Stage and 19.7 km anchor stage. Chuo's Yamato Yoshii has a 1:01:47 half marathon best and soloed an incredible 1:00:40 CR for the 21.3 km First Stage at Hakone in January, but they need someone else at that level. Soka has them in seniors Philip Mulwa and Yudai Shimazu. Two years ago Soka almost got Komazawa at Hakone, and if there are any cracks in Komazawa's facade this time they may be better positioned than anyone else to capitalize on it.

Meiji University is solid on paper but has a history of not performing up to potential in the big ekidens. It's likely to be just trying to hang on to a top 8 position, especially with Toyo University, Waseda University and Hakone Ekiden qualifier winner Daito Bunka University all in a bunch just behind them in the pre-race rankings. Tokai University is in the same grouping on paper, but with a near-disaster 9th-place finish at the Hakone qualifier 3 weeks ago it doesn't seem to be on its game right now. Likewise for Tokyo Kokusai University, only 8th at Izumo without star 4th-year Vincent Yegon and seriously lacking in half marathon credentials beyond his 1:01:18 best.

In contrast to Izumo and Nationals, Hakone is limited to schools in the Kanto Region around Tokyo. Given the focus on the half marathon distance there, as distances go up it gets harder and harder for schools in any other part of the country to compete. With 10 Kanto Region teams in the field at Izumo only one non-Kanto team, Kansai's Kwansei Gakuin University, managed to pick off a single Kanto team, beating Teikyo University for 10th. With longer stages at Nationals and 15 Kanto Region teams to contend with the bar is that much higher. The National University Select Team including a few Kanto runners finished 15th over Nittai University last year and Ritsumeikan University pulled it off in 2020 with a 15th-place finish over Josai University. But as at Izumo, Kwansei Gakuin has the best shot here. Based on PBs it'll need to make up at least a 4-minute, 40-second deficit to Tokyo Kokusai to get there.

Complete entry lists are available here.

© 2022 Brett Larner, all rights reserved